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All Forums > WHATS ON YOUR MIND > SPORTS SHIT > The Open Championship
The Open Championship
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:04 am    Post subject: The Open Championship


Dustin Johnson 8-1 In Progress
Jason Day 8-1 In Progress
Rory McIlroy 10-1 In Progress
Jordan Spieth 11-1 In Progress
Henrik Stenson 25-1 In Progress
Adam Scott 25-1 In Progress
Rickie Fowler 30-1 In Progress
Sergio Garcia 30-1 In Progress
Branden Grace 30-1 In Progress
Louis Oosthuizen 35-1 In Progress
Justin Rose 35-1 In Progress
Phil Mickelson 40-1 In Progress
Shane Lowry 40-1 In Progress
Martin Kaymer 45-1 In Progress
Zach Johnson 50-1 In Progress
Lee Westwood 50-1 In Progress
Danny Willett 55-1 In Progress
Bubba Watson 60-1 In Progress
Matt Kuchar 60-1 In Progress
Patrick Reed 65-1 In Progress
Charl Schwartzel 65-1 In Progress
Hideki Matsuyama 65-1 In Progress
Andy Sullivan 75-1 In Progress
Paul Casey 80-1 In Progress
Matthew Fitzpatrick 80-1 In Progress
Brandt Snedeker 80-1 In Progress
Jim Furyk 80-1 In Progress
Marc Leishman 80-1 In Progress
Graeme McDowell 80-1 In Progress
Scott Piercy 85-1 In Progress
Chris Wood 90-1 In Progress
Alex Noren 90-1 In Progress
Padraig Harrington 100-1 In Progress
Russell Knox 100-1 In Progress
Francesco Molinari 100-1 In Progress
Rafael Cabrera-Bello 100-1 In Progress
Danny Lee 125-1 In Progress
Ernie Els 125-1 In Progress
Thorbjorn Olesen 125-1 In Progress
Thongchai Jaidee 125-1 In Progress
Jason Dufner 150-1 In Progress
J.B. Holmes 150-1 In Progress
Tyrrell Hatton 150-1 In Progress
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Chris Kirk 200-1 In Progress
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Brendan Steele 200-1 In Progress
Jamie Donaldson 225-1 In Progress
Richie Ramsay 250-1 In Progress
Russell Henley  250-1 In Progress
Smylie Kaufman 250-1 In Progress
Colt Knost 250-1 In Progress
Russell Henley 250-1 In Progress
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Hideto Tanihara 250-1 In Progress
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Tommy Fleetwood 250-1 In Progress
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Tom Lehman 1000-1 In Progress
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:09 am    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

Open Championship: Power Ranks

Royal Troon is the site of the 145th Open Championship, and here is a preview to get you off and running with your research.

While technically Zach Johnson is our defending champion, his victory in 2015 came at St. Andrews. Royal Troon last hosted in 2004, with Todd Hamilton taking home the Claret Jug with a surprise win. Like ZJ, Hamilton is back this week looking to catch lightening in a bottle one more time.

It’s a known fact that the Open Championship is played on a rotation, meaning an individual course horse wouldn’t necessarily translate from one year to the next. Perhaps a great example is Louis Oosthuizen, who won the 2010 Open at St. Andrews and then lost the 2015 Open at St. Andrews in a playoff. Still, it is wise to trust those with past experience in Opens regardless of venue due to the variables. At some point there will be wind, rain, sun and calm. Perhaps five minutes apart!

This links game is consistent throughout the Open rotation as well. Rather than flying a 9-iron to the number and counting on five yards of backspin after the first hop, balls are landed short of the green and trusted to trundle towards the hole. The bunkers are deep and penal, whereas a regular PGA TOUR event barely penalizes a player for finding a fairway bunker.

Royal Troon is as true as any links venue. It plays to a par of 71, stretching out to a mere 7,190 yards. It features three par 5s, two of which are with the prevailing wind, and a quartet of par 3s. The par-3 eighth hole is the famed “Postage Stamp” hole. Perhaps most notable regarding the course are the first three holes. All are par 4s and all are under 400 yards and with the wind. In a strong breeze, it’s conceivable that bombers could have a go at all three off the tee.

While every researcher has their own quirks, I take a hard look at the class of past winners on specific courses. This is especially helpful in rotations like the U.S. Open and the Open Championship. Royal Troon is a mixed bag. Some will point out that Arnold Palmer and Tom Watson have each won Claret Jugs here. While true, the current trend is not nearly as impressive. In my book, three is the magic number in establishing a trend. The last three winners at Troon are Marc Calcavecchia (1989), Justin Leonard (1997) and Todd Hamilton (2004).

That is not a powerful stable of horses. Calc, Leonard and Hamilton each have one major championship. Troon. While Calc and Leonard enjoyed very successful careers, Hamilton could easily be considered a fluke winner. Hey, it happens. Michael Campbell won a U.S. Open at Pinehurst. Ben Curtis won an Open Championship out of nowhere. Again. It happens. But the last three trips to Troon have produced three major champions that won their one and only major on those links.

While the power ranking won’t be 15 shots in the dark to reflect the Troon trend, one should know that a balanced lineup could prove wise.

Here we go!

1. Dustin Johnson – Speaking of bombers that could have a go at several par 4s off the tee, DJ leads the pack. Clearly he was offended regarding all of the talk of the big three of Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy, winning the U.S. Open and WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in his last two starts. He’s got a couple of top 10s and a quartet of top 25s in seven previous Opens.

2. Jason Day – Still holds the top spot in the world rankings, though DJ is nipping at his heels. He was very average in Opens until a T4 last year landed him his first top 25. Typically, a few good bounces are needed to win a Claret Jug, and Day could win without much luck.

3. Jordan Spieth – Great trend in Open Championships, with last year’s T4 preceded by a T44 and a T36. A win this week would go a long way towards erasing the back nine debacle at Augusta in April.

4. Rory McIlroy – Remember Royal Liverpool? In some ways, Royal Troon reminds me of that layout. Both are not all that long, yet McIlroy devoured Royal Liverpool off the tee and won. He’s been very inconsistent for a player of his pedigree, but should still be considered among the favorites.

5. Sergio Garcia – Here’s where it gets fun. Troon could be the perfect spot for Sergio to finally pick up his major championship. It wouldn’t be a surprise if that breakthrough came in the Open, as he has two runner-up finishes and nine top 10s in this event. His missed cut in 2004 is a concern, but not a huge one.

6. Lee Westwood – And don’t forget Westy! A win for him this week would be quite reminiscent of the Darren Clarke win a few years ago and serve as the icing on the cake of his career. Westy likes Troon, finishing T10 in ’97 and fourth in 2004. The game hasn’t passed him by just yet, as he was a runner-up at the Masters.

7. Henrik Stenson – Solid Open player, making nine of 11 cuts with three top-three finishes. I could easily see that nuclear 3-wood of his having its way with Royal Troon. He’s a class player looking for that elusive major.

8. Adam Scott – It’s pretty simple. His last four Opens have gone 2-T3-T5-T10. He’s Adam Scott. Throw in top 20s in THE PLAYERS and the U.S. Open and a T10 at Firestone, and we have a contender.

9. Shane Lowry – Continues to advance in stature, winning the 2015 WGC-Bridgestone and nearly winning the 2016 U.S. Open since last competing for the Claret Jug. He’s made three of four cuts in the Open, with a T9 the best result.

10. Scott Piercy – Riding the lightening of back-to-back runner-up finishes at the U.S. Open and the WGC-Bridgestone, he’s the Ernie Els to Dustin Johnson’s Tiger Woods. This is only his second Open, with a MC in 2013 being his first, but how can you ignore him?

11. Phil Mickelson – Went T24-3 at Troon in ’97 and ’04. The rest of the blanks kind of fill themselves in. He’s Phil. It will be interesting to see how he’s driving it, as that could be the difference in him contending or being an afterthought.

12. Rickie Fowler – After a dry spell, he flashed a little form with a T10 in the WGC-Bridgestone. He’s been solid in the Open, scoring two top fives and three top 15s in six tries.

13. Branden Grace – Easily overlooked with nothing better than a T20 (2015) on his Open Championship resume, he has at least made the cut in all five attempts. The South African is a growing presence in major championships in general, cracking top fives in the last two U.S. Opens. He ranks 10th in the Official World Golf Ranking.

14. Zach Johnson – Not only did he win last year, he’s been very steady in making his last nine cuts in the Open Championship. To be successful this week, he’ll need to stay disciplined and play the wedge-and-putt game with while others may grip it and rip it.

15. Ernie Els – A known Open beast, Els is stront at Troon as well. Though he missed the cut in 1989, he posted a T10 in 1997 and a runner-up in 2004.

There are a few other names who would be like a Calc, Leonard or even Hamilton winner. Those that didn’t make the cut above, but stood out to me in that regard were names like Matt Kuchar, Russell Knox, Patrick Reed, Paul Casey and Kevin Chappell. I could have kept going.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:23 am    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

More Power Rankings

As former Open champions are wont to do at the site where they once hoisted the Claret Jug, Tom Weiskopf made his final appearance in the season’s third major at Royal Troon Golf Club in 2004 at the age of 61. His lone major victory occurred at Troon in 1973. That last of 18 starts in the tournament also served as his last PGA TOUR start in a career that began in 1963.

Significant to Weiskopf’s swan song is but one in an endless stream of connections that help shape our perspective of the timeline of the sport, for it was also in 2004 when Zach Johnson debuted in The Open Championship. ZJ defends his only title in this major at Royal Troon this week. He emerged from a playoff with Louis Oosthuizen and Marc Leishman at St. Andrews a year ago.

Johnson’s own baton pass to a golfer to be born later is decades away, but that’s barely a blip in a tournament celebrating its 145th edition. The Open Championship was born in 1860 at Prestwick, a site attainable with a short stroll southeast of this week’s host course.

Royal Troon is a par 36-35=71 set hard against the Firth of Clyde on the western shore of central Scotland. It returns for the first time since Todd Hamilton prevailed 12 years ago. It’s the ninth time overall since it debuted in 1923. All of the six last six champions at Troon (since Arnold Palmer in 1962) are Americans who had won previously in the same year.

The 27 golfers in this week’s field of 156 were here in 2004. Fifteen made the cut, including the top four on the leaderboard (2nd: Ernie Els; 3rd: Phil Mickelson; 4th: Lee Westwood). Although Troon is officially 15 yards longer on the scorecard at 7,190 yards, returning competitors will find it to be similar in size and shape. The most noticeable modification occurred at the par-4 15th hole where the tee was shifted left. At 499 yards, it’s the longest of the 11 par 4s. Only three holes went unchanged in length, including the par-3 eighth, affectionately and colloquially dubbed Postage Stamp. Just 123 yards, it’s the shortest par 3 on any course utilized in The Open Championship.

Troon’s homeward-bound nine relents only at the par-3 14th and par-5 16th, at least on paper. And when you loop in the par-4 ninth, eight of the last 10 holes ranked inside the top-half hardest in 2004. Beginning at No. 10, only the par-4 12th isn’t played into or across the prevailing wind, which will rotate anywhere from northwest to southwest.

The field’s overall scoring average in relation to par of +2.212 in 2004 ranked second-highest of the season, but five Opens since have scored higher against par. The scoring average in 1997 (when Justin Leonard won by three at 12-under 272) was +2.433.

What Hamilton accomplished deserves an appropriate dosage of hyperbole given he ranked outside the top 10 for the week in fairways hit, greens in regulation, putts per GIR, one-putt percentage, three-putt avoidance, birdies-or-better percentage and scrambling. Yet, he (and Els) completed regulation in 10-under 274. Hamilton traded an eagle and 16 birdies with eight bogeys. But in retrospect, that balanced approach was necessary at Troon, which yields only on its greens. In 2004, the field one-putted every three of eight tries (about average on TOUR) but three-putted once every 40 holes. (The TOUR’s average that season was one three-putt every 30 holes.) Seventeen of the 73 who survived the cut avoided three-putting.

While the elements are almost always a factor in any tournament, and especially in this one, hopeful contenders needn’t grab driver time and again. In fact, as proper course management demands navigating around bunkers that are true hazards, there’s enough motivation to serve tee balls, not smash them. However, with rain forecast mid-tournament – the heaviest stuff is expected to fall on Friday – you might see a few more big sticks than usual. Moderate winds will freshen on the weekend. Daytime highs will range from the upper 50s to mid-60s. And because it’s summer in Scotland, expect the forecast to change by the hour.

POWER RANKINGS: The Open Championship

Dustin Johnson With breakthrough title at Oakmont and come-from-behind win at Firestone, he’s fulfilling massive expectations for all. Sparkling Open record include four top 15s.

Jason Day

Final-hole disappointment at St. Andrews (T4) inspired last 12 months of blistering form with seven victories. T3 at Firestone two weeks ago. The best putter on the PGA TOUR.

Adam Scott

Ended top-10 drought with a backdoor T10 at Firestone. Still tops on TOUR in strokes gained: tee-to-green; sixth in proximity. Last four Opens, respectively: 2nd-T3-T5-T10

Rory McIlroy

Long-awaited return after injured ankle thwarted title defense last year. Typically strong form includes a win (Irish Open) and another five top-four finishes in last four months.

Jordan Spieth

En route to T3 at Firestone, led field in strokes gained: putting and birdies-or-better percentage. Seeking to avenge T4 at St. Andrews last year when bid for grand slam ended.

Zach Johnson

Defending champ is perfect in last nine starts in The Open; four top 20s since 2011. Reconnected with capable putting in last two starts: T8 at Oakmont; T10 at Firestone.

Sergio Garcia

Fourth in all-time earnings in The Open; only non-winner inside top seven with nine top 10s among 15 cuts made. Win-T5-T5 in last three respective starts upon arrival.

Phil Mickelson Phil Mickelson

Five top fives in 2016; T13 in Scotland last week. Winless since Scottish-Open double in 2013. Third here in 2004. Fourth in strokes gained: putting; fifth in adjusted scoring.

Branden Grace

Perfect in five starts, but no better than a T20 at St. Andrews last year. Still a threat, of course, as nine top fives (two wins) in the last 11 months testify.

Henrik Stenson

Has performed well before and after knee surgery since November. Winner in Germany three weeks ago. Three top-three finishes in The Open since 2008.

Charl Schwartzel Charl Schwartzel

Checks all of the boxes. Proven winner. Strong form all year; T5-T7 in last two starts, respectively. Top 20s in four Opens since 2010. Efficient throughout his bag.

Graeme McDowell

Completed Open prep with a tidy T10 at Castle Stuart last week. T9 at PLAYERS and T18 at U.S. Open also in the short-term memory bank. Keeps his ball in play.

Martin Kaymer

Dynamite stretch since mid-April features four top sixes and a T13 in Scotland last week. His 7-for-8 slate in The Open Championship boasts a trio of top 15s.

Alexander Noren

Culminated comeback from stress fracture in chest with win at Castle Stuart on Sunday. Top 15s in five of last eight starts worldwide. Good putter is terrific on approach.

Marc Leishman

Cooled since string of three top 20s ended at Oakmont, but top fives in last two Opens where his reputation in the wind is supported. Phenomenally balanced.

Justin Rose

Cool conditions won’t help a sore back – limited competition to only two starts in last two months – but won’t need to smack driver as often. Can rely on ball-striking strength.

Andy Sullivan Andy Sullivan

The Englishman with the well-rounded skill set has been crashing leaderboards for 18 months now. T5-T6 in last two starts, respectively; top 25s in his last five.

Matt Kuchar

Extended his torrid stretch since mid-May with a T3 at Firestone. Five top-six finishes in his last six starts. Open record includes a pair of top 15s (2012, 2013).

Patrick Reed

Battled back from an opening 75 at Castle Stuart with closing 67s to place T10. Additionally buoyed by Olympics berth. Exquisite short game the ace up his sleeve at Troon

Rickie Fowler

Ranked a season-best seventh in proximity at Firestone, where he posted a T10 to end a slump. Three top 15s in six tries in The Open. T2 two years ago at Royal Liverpool.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:28 pm    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

Inside the ropes more Power Rankings

Put together as a five-hole course in the 1870’s, Troon gained Royal status, the only course under the reign of Queen Elizabeth II to do so, in 1978. Named after the city where it’s located, Troon is a classic links setup that takes the players out on the front nine and back to the clubhouse on the back nine.

The course sets up easiest going out if the prevailing wind is doing just that. Justin Leonard showed this to be to his advantage when he went out in 12 under but came home in even to win in 1997. If the wind is up, the field will cut some of that yardage off and will be able to attack the shorter holes. Troon boasts the shortest hole, No. 8, the “Postage Stamp” and the longest hole, the 601-yard par-5 No. 6, “Turnberry” used in the rotation. The eighth, a par 3, played as one of the top three hardest in 2004. The coffin bunker in front is the major deterrent, along with four other bunkers, but at just 123 yards, players will have to trust their club and the wind of the day.

The inward nine plays into the prevailing wind and housed seven of the nine toughest holes in 2004 (Nos. 11 and 17 are brutal), the last time Royal Troon played host. The mantra will be to get out and get out quickly and then survive the bumpy ride home. Coming home into that wind or rain or both will test the patience and execution of the best players. Experience is always a key in majors but even more so on the links. A beating will take place. How much is up to the guy who’s holding the club.

Blind bunkers will test the mental aspect of the best in the world as they must trust their lines. Troon is also known for uneven fairways and the smallest greens in the rotation. Two prevalent thoughts for gamers should stand out: find guys that find GIR or guys who have nasty short games to get up-and-down. Remember, Todd Hamilton won here essentially playing with a hybrid off the greens. And he beat Ernie Els in his pomp doing it. In a playoff.

If the forecast calls for rain and wind, which it does at the moment, guys who can handle less-than-perfect (read: experience) should also flourish. If the weather is benign, the course will open up to most but if wet, that will favor the ball-strikers. The more time not spent in the grouse and broom or the traps will keep bogeys and others off the cards. Lee Westwood has hit the top 10 twice here and he’s hardly the poster boy for chipping and putting. If the weather is well, the weather, experience factors in even more as the draw might come into play. Guys who have been-there-done-that who can handle a round in difficult conditions will stand out. Bad breaks and bad luck are part of golf and those who accept this as part of the game will be around on Sunday.

The course will play just 15 more yards than it did in 2004. The only major changes will be a bunker embedded into a ridge of a sand dune on No. 10 plus the addition of a sand dune behind No. 9. Also the fairway on No. 15 was shifted and tilted by architect Martin Hawtree who made all the design changes noted above.

I’d suggest fielding lineups, as usual, with balance, but I’m leaning experience in this event as the trump card. Be careful with recent form on links courses as Troon has been around for 140 years longer than Castle Stuart and has much smaller fairways to hit and obviously smaller greens. Guys on form entering the week will outweigh those struggling as the combination of course setup, weather and difficulty doesn’t suggest “finding it” this week.

The field


In order of preference for this week and this tournament

Dustin Johnson: His form is off-the-charts with wins in his last two; contends in every event he’s in the last few months; newly found accuracy with the driver and ability to hole more putts has been the key; weather, including wind, won’t bother him; led after 36 last year and was one back after 54 in 2011; most rounds in the 60’s in the event since 2010; the last player to win three Tour events in a row was Rory McIlroy in 2014 (WGC-BI, PGA and Deutsche Bank Championship).

Jason Day: Since 2013 is 33-under par in majors; five straight top 10’s in majors; missed playoff at St. Andrews by a shot last year in his best-ever finish;; top 10’s in his last two starts at Oakmont and Firestone; short game could be the difference maker this week.

Rory McIlroy: Already has done the business in this event (’14, Royal Liverpool); his best tee-to-green is THE best; small, slow greens provide him an edge; MC at Oakmont is the only blemish stretching back to Match Play; hasn’t had his best stuff and is still racking top 10’s.

Adam Scott: Led by four with four to play in ’11 before losing to Els; that kicked off a run of four top 10’s in a row at The Open (active); hasn’t MC in any event since The Barclays last year; superb wind player and ball-striker with plenty of scar tissue built up.

Jordan Spieth: Free mind after declining to play in Rio and the JDC to get healthy; premium short game keeps him in any conversation; won at Colonial and T-3 at WGC-BI last time out gives him two podiums in his last four; new venue for most enhances his value.

Sergio Garcia: Funny that his only non-top 10 from 2001-2007 was Royal Troon in ’04 (MC); top 10’s in his last two Opens and nine in 19 starts overall; winner at AT&T Byron Nelson in May plus T-5 at Oakmont and BMW (Munich) in his last three.

Branden Grace: Knock. Knock. Knock. Playing in his fifth consecutive Open; previous three all better than the prior; top five finishes in three of the last five majors; four top 10’s in his last six on Tour including a victory on a short, tight, Harbour Town course plus T-5 at Oakmont.

Zach Johnson: Rattled off his ninth consecutive weekend with his first victory last year; three of the last four in the top 10; back-to-back top 10’s entering the week at Oakmont and Firestone suggests he’s ready to defend in style.

Rickie Fowler: European Vacation this week as he’s staying with his buddy Spieth as well as taking his spot in the Olympics; signs of life at Congressional were followed by T-10 at Firestone; five made from six tries with a pair of top 10’s and nothing outside T-31 over here.

Lee Westwood: Form is sizzling; only finish outside the top 15 since his T-2 at Augusta was because of 80 at Oakmont on Sunday; made 55 cuts in 73 career majors but will be remembered for not winning one; along with Els, only players to hit the top 10 in 1997 and 2004 here.

Henrik Stenson: WD at Oakmont was followed by a win in Munich and T-13 last week at Castle Stuart; one of the best tee-to-green on Tour; made nine cuts in his last nine Opens.

Martin Kaymer: Terrible beginning to 2016 has turned for the better with four top 10’s in his last eight; victories at Whistling Straits, Pinehurst and TPC Sawgrass suggest he doesn’t mind a tough challenge; based in Europe this season and T-13 last week should have him up it.

Matt Kuchar: 10 for his last 10 on Tour with eight top 10’s; T-3 last time out at WGC-BI; another short game artist who’ll excel if par is a good score; made five of his last six weekends at The Open.

Patrick Reed: First top 10 in four weeks last week at Castle Stuart; named to the Olympic team gives him a boost; confidence, power and short game aren’t lacking; only his third Open.

Louis Oosthuizen: Along with Scott has the lowest scoring average in The Open since his win in 2010; lost in a playoff last year to Johnson; on a run of 10 consecutive weekends in majors.

Justin Rose: With four top 10’s in his last six majors he’s in the conversation this week; T-23 and T-6 in his last two Opens; back injury set him back heading into Oakmont (MC) but has only played twice in two months so he should be fresh; class trumps form here.

Francesco Molinari: Checks in this week at No. 56 in the OWGR, same as Todd Hamilton in 2004; enters on excellent form as T-8 at Congressional was backed up by solo second at the French Open; top 40 or better in the last four Opens highlighted with T-9 at Muirfield in ’13; another superb ball-striker who’s made the cut in his last nine majors.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello: Racked up six top 10’s from 16 starts worldwide this year; 12 of those are top 25’s; T-17 at Augusta and T-32 at Oakmont suggests the moments and fields aren’t too big for him; three weekends from four tries at the Open.

Phil Mickelson: Missed the ’04 playoff here by a shot; T-24 in 1997; five of eight rounds in the 60’s; plays well where he’s played well and this qualifies; will need the “Phil” short game to be firing this week if his ball-striking is erratic.

Scott Piercy: T-2 at Oakmont backed up with T-2 at Firestone; only player to beat him the last two events he played was Dustin Johnson; T-29 at Augusta and played 16 of 18 weekends suggests nothing of a fluke; only Open prior was MC at Muirfield.


Just missed; no particular order of preference

Danny Willett: Won at Augusta and finished T-37 at Oakmont; T-15, MC, T-6 in his last three Opens; enters the week off MC, MC after Oakmont.

Marc Leishman: After MC in his first three he’s rattled off nine in a row; four of his last five T-16 or better including top 10’s in three of his last four; lost a playoff last year to Johnson; enters on better form than last year with only two MC’s in his last 10 events.

Chris Wood: Enters making 10 in a row on the Euro Tour; winner at a demanding Wentworth at the end of May followed by T-6, T-23 (Oakmont) and T-6 at Le Golf National in Paris; would have been higher if not for a WD last week with a neck injury.

Shane Lowry: Didn’t kick on after leading after 54 holes at Oakmont; disappointing T-36 in defense at WGC-BI with a limited field; three top 10’s in his last eight majors include T-9 at Royal Liverpool in ’14; too good of a links player to dismiss but consistency needs work.

Jason Dufner: Last two top 10’s have come on classic, ball-striking courses of Colonial and Oakmont; made 15 of 17 cuts on the season and four in a row at The Open.

Alex Noren: T-9 at Muirfield in ’12 but first event since ’13; won last week in less than pleasant weather at Castle Stuart; five top 12 finishes in his last eight starts including back-to-back top 10’s (8th, WIN).

Padraig Harrington: After MC in six of seven he’s rattled off three in a row T-30 or better worldwide; T-5 in 1997 and MC in 2004; four top 10’s and eight top 25’s in 13 Open weekends suggest he has the temperament and guile to handle the course and conditions.

Graeme McDowell: Played the weekend in seven of his last eight on the links and has top 10’s in two of the last four; finding fairways and holing putts make him a danger man but his form lends more questions than answers.

Russell Knox: Last two times on links he’s been T-2 (Irish Open) and T-10 (Castle Stuart); T-2 at Harbour Town or T-23 at Oakmont isn’t putting me off either.

Brandt Snedeker: T-13 or better in five of his last nine majors includes three top 10’s; consistently inconsistent but has the short game to save him plenty of shots this week.

Billy Horschel: Made 13 cuts in a row on Tour and eight of 12 career in majors, including his last five.

Danny Lee: Made absolutely NOTHING last Sunday and finished T-3 at Castle Stuart.

Joost Luiten: T-16 or better in 10 of 15 starts on the European Tour this year with seven top 10’s. His real name is Willibrodus and he’s never been any better than T-45 in four tries though.

Andy Sullivan: Has one finish of 13 worldwide outside T-27 on the season. Uno. T-30 in his debut last year.

Bernd Wiesberger: T-15, T-10, MC, T-7 and T-11 in his last five but no history whatsoever at the event.

Charley Hoffman: Only MC twice in 2016; career-year and plays very well in windy Texas; downside is only 2-5 at this event.

William McGirt: Plenty of firsts this year including his first win and Open Championship; should be lost in this shuffle but keeps it in play and is solid in all parts of his game.


Course horses, long shots, cheeky picks, DFS last call, red herrings, general mish-mash

Webb Simpson: Rattled off T-3, T-11, and MC and sixth in his last four starts on Tour; made three of four cuts across the pond on the back of his tee-to-green play; ranked No. 74 in the world.

Brandon Stone: Top 10’s in five of his last nine worldwide but first-timer in the event.

Gary Woodland: Never missed in four tries and never broken T-30 either; T-2 in Reno and T-4 at Memorial highlight his recent “closeness”.

Colin Montgomerie: Grew up here and is a member; no pressure as the expectations are long gone; think Tom Watson 2009.

Thorbjorn Olesen: All-or-nothing here and on Tour; lightning in a bottle if healthy.

Jamie Lovemark: Ranks 16th in SG: off the tee and 23rd SG: around the green but no pedigree in this or any major.

Ernie Els: First top 10 since ’14 last time out at Congressional (T-5); 14 top 25’s in 18 Opens include 11 top 10’s but none since his win in ’12.

Brendan Steele: Made seven in a row on Tour with five resulting in T-20 or better; strikes it just well enough but has only played once in this event (MC, 2014).

Daniel Summerhays: First timer reminds me of Ben Curtis as he’ll make putts; T-8 at Oakmont was followed by T-21 at Congressional highlights eight cuts made in a row; first timer here tempers expectations.

Justin Leonard: 1997 champ playing with house’s money and hasn’t MC in his last five on Tour; boom or bust with three top 16’s and five MC’s in his last eight.

Hideto Tanihara: Put him in here for the U.S. Open (T-51); went back to Japan the week after and MC but followed that with WIN, WIN. Imagine if they stuck a major or WGC in Japan…

Jon Rahm: Shhhhhhhhh. Just enjoy the ride.

Matthew Southgate: Beat testicular cancer late last year; made six of his last nine cuts with five T-22’s or better; highlighted by solo fourth at the Irish Open.

Callum Shinkwin: Can’t overlook T-9 at the French Open and T-8 at Castle Stuart in back-to-back weeks for the Englishman.

Steve Stricker: Returns for the first time since 2012; never MC in eight tries from 2000-2012; T-2 and T-21 in his last two on Tour;

James Heath: Finished first and third the last two weeks on the Challenge Tour; clubs hadn’t arrived from Slovakia as of yesterday.

Matteo Manassero: Lots of love by the talking heads after playing his way in last week with T-3 at Castle Stuart; first top 10 since 2014 tempers my excitement if there was any; Castle Stuart is a resort course compared to Troon so I’m out.

Sanghee Lee: Qualified by winning the SK Telecom and backing that up with T-2 at the Mizuno Open the following week; RANK outsider.


Players to avoid and there’s plenty of them

Bubba Watson: Just three weekends from seven tries and nothing inside T-23; only use him if he’s in the bargain rack in your league/salary.

Darren Clarke: His last finish inside the top 25 was in 2015 in June. Fantasy golf has no room for sentimentality or defending champs that aren’t in any form.

Charl Schwartzel: News broke Tuesday morning that he showed up at Royal Troon with an ENTIRELY NEW BAG OF PXG clubs. That’s either SICK confidence or a clue to run like hell. He’s been playing great lately so why the change? When I don’t know, I go.

Brooks Koepka: WHERE IS HE?!?!? Hurt and out this week.

Daniel Berger: WHERE IS HE!??!?! Hurt and out this week.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:49 pm    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

The Open Championship Preview
By Dan Daly

After going three for four in the 2015 Majors, admittedly my 2016 Major picks couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start (thanks Rory). However just like NBC and my man Johnny Miller, this is the week I make my “Ali like return to the ring.” Outside of the Masters, the British Open is my second favorite Major of the year, and with the return of Johnny to the booth, what’s not to love?

Royal Troon will host its ninth British Open this week. Like most British Open courses, Troon couldn’t play any more different going out than coming in. The front nine plays much easier going out (downwind) and much more difficult on the back nine coming in (into the wind), which should make the final nine holes Sunday afternoon very interesting if the wind is up. To put it another way, Gary Player famously said, the back nine at Troon is, “the most difficult in the world when the wind is blowing.”

So the question as always is; who will survive the wind and be holding the Claret Jug come Sunday afternoon?

Here are the 18 to watch (sorted by odds):

18. Jason Day (8/1): Let’s start at the top with the number one player in the world. Despite winning seven of his last 19 tournaments, Day still “only” has one Major win to his credit. I don’t think anyone would be surprised if he added a second win this week but I don’t see it happening. Day’s ball flight along with his forgettable Sunday at the WGC leave cause for concern. I think a sixth straight Top 10 this week is all but a lock, just not his second Major victory.

17. Rory McIlroy (8/1): After refusing to buy into the Rory hype for the last two years I reluctantly drank the kool-aid this year not once (Masters - T-10), but twice (US Open - MC) and got burned badly each time. So Rory is officially dead to me…which probably means he will win the British Open. Outside of his win at the Irish Open, McIlroy frankly has done very little the last 22 months to indicate any chance of winning this week.

16. Jordan Spieth (8/1): The past six British Open winners at Royal Troon have been American, with the last two (Leonard and Hamilton) having Dallas ties. This will of course mean absolutely nothing when he tees it up starting Thursday morning. Spieth has always seemed to play his best golf with a chip on his shoulder and has several coming into this week. Most recently he got passed by DJ to drop to number three in the OWGR last week. I know he said he's trying to play quicker and have more fun, but you have to wonder if that’s working against him based on his recent play? Spieth is the biggest wildcard in the field to me this week. Nothing he does, from winning, to missing the cut, will surprise me.

15. Dustin Johnson (17/2): After finally getting his first major last month at Oakmont, DJ could win the next six Majors and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. Day might be the number one player in the world but DJ is the hottest. With that said, I think the British Open and this course in particular might be the one place DJ could struggle a little. And by struggle, I mean finish outside of first but inside the Top 10.

14. Justin Rose (24/1): Rose has three missed cuts in his last six British Open’s and only one Top 10 as a pro (last year). My bigger issue with Rose though is his back problem. He tried to give it a go at the US Open and missed the cut. I don’t bet on golfers that are injured. Until his back is fully healthy, I’ll pass on Rose.

13. Sergio Garcia (25/1): If Sergio is ever going to win a major, one would have to assume the British Open would be it with nine top 10’s, including two runner-up finishes. But…it’s Sergio Garcia and it’s a major.

12. Henrik Stenson (25/1): Stenson finally ended his winless drought last month at the BMW International Open in Germany and followed it up with a respectable T-13 at the Scottish Open this past weekend. Will he continue his solid play at the British Open? Probably. Will it be solid enough to get him the Claret Jug come Sunday? No.

11. Rickie Fowler (27/1): Yes, Rickie Fowler has two top 5’s in only six British Open starts, and yes Fowler has always thrived when it comes to playing in the wind. But the guy has four missed cuts in his last eight starts including both Majors in 2016 as well the PLAYERS and the Memorial. At this point, just making the cut at the British Open would be a victory for Fowler.

10. Branden Grace (29/1): The good news for Grace is that he has made the cut in all five of his British Open starts. The bad news, his best finish so far is a T-20 (coming last year). I think if Grace were to win a major it would come at the US Open, not the British Open.

9. Danny Willett (30/1): Todd Hamilton’s win here in 2004 put him in the conversation of the most out of nowhere Major Champions in golf history. Even as the 9th ranked player in the world, Danny Willett joining the very small list of multiple Major winners in the same year wouldn’t be quite as shocking as Hamilton’s win but it wouldn’t be too far off either. I’ll play the odds here that Willett doesn’t join that list.

8. Louis Oosthuizen (33/1): Louis has a win and runner up when playing the British Open at St Andrews. In his seven other British Open starts…his best finish is a T-19 with two missed cuts. Until the British Open returns to St Andrews in 2020 I’ll pass on Louis.

7. Shane Lowry (35/1): Can he put that final round at the Oakmont behind him this quickly? Based on his play at the WGC I would have to say no.

6. Phil Mickelson (35/1): Mickelson comes in with a lot of momentum off his final round 66 at the Scottish Open…very similar to DJ coming into the US Open off his final round 63 at the St Jude. He also finished solo 3rd here at the 2004 British Open (one shot out of the playoff). But two missed cuts in his first two majors of 2016 are much more concerning. I think Phil is around for the weekend but that’s about as good as you can expect from him this week.

5. Zach Johnson (55/1): Believe it or not, Zach Johnson has one of the best recent records of anyone on tour at the British Open. Along with his win last year, he also has top 10’s in three of last four years. With his history here and coming off a T-8 at the U.S. Open I fully expect Johnson to be somewhere on or near the leaderboard this week but the words “Zach Johnson wins back-to-back British Opens” just aren’t plausible to me.

4. Patrick Reed (65/1): Top 10 finishes by Patrick Reed in a major prior to the 2016 British Open…zero. Top 10 finishes by Patrick Reed in a major following the 2016 British Open…zero

As for my top three picks this week. With a good variety in odds, I’m taking a piece of each of them, all for different reasons.

3. Brandt Snedeker (60/1): At 60/1, this is my dark horse pick…or my weather insurance pick. Sneds could win or miss the cut by 5 shots, and it will probably all depend on the weather. The nastier the weather the more I like this pick. There might not be a better bad weather player on the planet than Sneds. His win earlier this year at Torrey Pines came in a monsoon similar to that of the Bishop’s round from Caddyshack. The guy gets better as the weather gets worse. The forecast for Troon as of today is calling for a relatively calm four days by British Open standards; but as everyone knows that can change in a moment’s notice. And if it does change for the worse, having a smaller play on Snedeker at 60/1 should be well rewarded.

2. Lee Westwood (40/1): At 40/1, this is both an emotional and gut pick. He finished 4th here in 2004 and has four total top 5 finishes in the British Open. The fact that he was T-2 at the Masters this year and was in the penultimate group of the final round at Oakmont, I’d say he is clearly playing well in 2016. My general rule has always been, if it’s a major stay away from Westwood, Sergio and DJ. But if DJ can finally get the monkey off his back of winning a major…why not Westwood four weeks later? And at 40/1 no less.

1. Adam Scott (20/1): At 20/1, this is the best value and safest pick in the field. The guy is simply a stalwart on the British Open leaderboard lately with five top 10’s…including four in a row. Quite frankly it's hard to believe he hasn't claimed a claret jug already with the way he's played in this event the past few years. If not for four straight bogeys out of nowhere on the back nine in both 2012 AND 2013 the guy would probably have back to back Claret Jugs already. While he’s obviously cooled down from his torrid start to 2016, I think this is the year he finally keeps it together on the back nine Sunday and wins his first British Open turning my 2016 back into a profitable year.

19th hole – Of course, the smart thing to do is just ignore everything I have said to this point and bet on the one and only…the 1995 British Open Champion…John Patrick Daly at 1000/1.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 8:32 am    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

thanks for posting info Poi
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:10 am    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

Ok gang doing this early cause of time difference from here to across the pond. These are my golfers for this weeks fantasy,and of course hopefully the winner in here. I have been in a little slump lately,but like i said 2 weeks ago time to make a run hopefully so lets go,and always gltall:

Spieth (now I had Day in this spot,but during his practice round Tuesday Day heard a pop during his backswing.says he is ok,but me being a golfer,and in the business in the past for a very long time I don't like the word pop.again he could be ok,but be cautious.also Spieth qualifies for a trend that has produced the last 6 Americans that have won at Troon hmm!

Dustin Johnson (I said this before this is his time now Hot Hot Hot).

Rory McIroy (If he starts off hot look out.from what I have seen he has something to prove to lots of critics this week).

Lee Westwood (this guy has always been sneaky good,and can't believe he hasn't won a major,but like Darren Clarke hmm maybe).

Russell Knox (I had Justin Rose in this spot,but again Rose has not been the same since tweaking his back.Knox has played good in this venue,and last week so will ride).

Henrik Stenson (ok been on this Swede for couple years.I will give him one more chance just like I gave Matsuyama one more chance couple weeks ago.though I wont use Matsuyama anymore probably because he is so stressed from Japan press.Stenson is coming off knee surgery from last year late from what I saw so maybe he ok now cause of his play not in America.now if there is a prop for top Swede you might want to think of Lingmerth,but then comes down to which one of these 2 can make their putts.going with Henrik hmm).

Andy Sullivan (I try to always pick darky horses,and of course as always plenty.the thing is wasn't going to until Charl Schwartzel of course who is not a darkhorse decided to play with new clubs this week dropping Nike.another one of my peeves besides injuries never go into a tourney though I know tuff with new clubs).

Brendan Grace (another I feel this week will step up.if anything if there is a prop for top South African he might be the one though Oost lurkes and swing good,but worry on injuries).

now the rest of whatever:

Sergio I like to but,plays with Bradley first two days hmm.

Adam Scott can't find nothing wrong,and could win as long as putter rides along.

Zach Johnson I never look for repeat champs.

Snedecker good wind player along with ZJ,but putter hmm.

Noren won last weeks Scottish open forget about it.

Leishman good wind elements player did good last year hmm maybe.

Don't know I can continue all night and if you look at the rankings you will notice that pretty much they agree on alot of the same players.the key to me in this tourney is finding the one that noone kinda thinks of though tuff I know.took a look at odds earlier and not or if anything change in odds though can't say for across the pond.

whatever u do just enjoy the tourney from were golf was created,and it's history.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:41 am    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

other info 4 whatever worth 4 darky horses Steve Stricker was always one of my late Pops favorite golfers along with Phil. I actually looked at Nicolas Colsaerts who played good last week.chose Sullivan instead hmm!

Steve Stricker is at Royal Troon Golf Club for the 145th Open Championship and is paired the first two rounds with England's Ross Fisher and Fiji's Vijay Singh.
This is the 49-year-old's 13th Open and first since T23 in 2012 (Royal Lytham). He Open-qualified by finishing joint runner-up at the FedEx St. Jude Classic in June. Stricker's best finish (of two top 10s) is T7 in 2008 (Royal Birkdale) on 12-over-par 292, when the winning score was 3-over. He's a 12-time winner on the PGA TOUR, most recently at the 2012 Hyundai TOC, and his best finish of 12 top 10s in majors is runner-up at the 1998 PGA Championship (to Singh). The Wisconsin native and resident is looking to join Phil Mickelson (2013), Ernie Els (2012) and Darren Clarke (2011) as recent Open champions who won in their 40s. Making his final appearance in The Open Championship as a 40something, but the 12-time PGA TOUR winner hasn’t been executing as if PGA TOUR Champions is his next stop. Qualified for this week with a T2 in Memphis a month ago. He also connected a T11 (Northern Trust) and a T7 (Valspar) in February and March. And now he’s fresh off a T21 in a primer at Castle Stuart. While he’s never won a major, he’s connected for 12 top 10s, eight of which since turning 40, including a pair in the season’s third major. Age also has nothing on his silky touch as he ranks second on TOUR in strokes gained: putting and third in scrambling.

Francesco Molinari … Took last week off since taking the silver at the Open de France the week prior. The 33-year-old Italian has been building to something special for months, and it stands to reason that a test such as Royal Troon will shine light on his surgical ball-striking. Five top 20s since a T9 at Bay Hill in mid-March includes a T7 at TPC Sawgrass and a T8 at Congressional. Sits 41st on the PGA TOUR in adjusted scoring and T11 in par-5 scoring. Three of his five cuts made in eight tries in The Open Championship went for a top 15.

Joost Luiten … Poised yet again to get over the hump in The Open Championship where he’s just 2-for-4 with no better than a T45 in 2012. Currently 12th in the Race to Dubai standings with a pair of runner-up finishes and another six top 10s. Above average in finding fairways, and then a hearty 12th in greens in regulation on the European Tour. The 30-year-old Dutchman is also fifth in scoring average.

Nicolas Colsaerts … While largely known in the U.S. as the Muscles from Brussels, it might be more fitting to cite that you can’t spell Colsaerts without “coaster,” as in the thrill ride his Official World Golf Ranking has endured throughout an enigmatic career. It began when he rose inside the top 325 in 2003. Six years later, he was outside the top 1,300, only to touch a career-best 32nd by 2012. After a couple of pedestrian seasons with a PGA TOUR card, he’s returned to the European Tour in earnest, but the damage was already done. Just two months ago, he slotted 269th in the OWGR. However, drips and drabs of success have finally graduated into a steady flow of leaderboard appearances. A set of seven top 25s in his last eight starts includes a trio of third-place finishes. The most recent – last week at Castle Stuart – lifted the rangy 33-year-old to 124th in the world. His open record includes a T7 at Royal Lytham & St. Annes in 2012.

Paul Dunne … For all of the attention given to the heartache of the likes of Jason Day and Jordan Spieth at St. Andrews a year ago, it was Dunne who may have developed the most scar tissue in the shortest time. Spieth’s T4 served as a close call in the absence of converting a third consecutive leg of the grand slam, while Day’s T4 fueled his mindset for a historical stretch in the aftermath. They are big fish in big ponds, so it was easy to cast Dunne’s T30 – after sharing the 54-hole lead – into the bucket with all of the other amateur’s learning curves. (He didn’t even finish in the top three among amateurs in the field.) However, the 23-year-old still bleeds Irish green and there is no bias, media-driven or otherwise, on redemption. Since his brush with destiny a year ago, Dunne has picked off seven top 25s worldwide. St. Andrews shrouded his knack to misfire tee-to-green, but if he can contain himself at Royal Troon, his putter could once again go a long way in capturing the Claret Jug.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:31 pm    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

Poi my book has props:::

Yes (Open 2016 Hole in one) -145 ???
No (Open 2016 Hole in one) +125 ??
what do you think bro ???

will there be a playoff in open yes +285...I like that odds could happen...
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:06 pm    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

Poi good luck on your Fantasy guys...I bet few guys we both like,,hope one hits!!!

Dustin +770
Henrik Stenson +2700
Branden Grace +2700
Lee Westwood +4500 (Long shot way overdue for major)
Danny Willett +6000 (Long shot)

May add few more later tonight (A.Scott & Spieth)

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:36 pm    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

Hey JJ

I like the odds on playoff to.all the greats are here,and pretty sure if there is one championship in the past like last year that has had playoffs it's this one.I don't think it will be a runaway imo.

as far as hole in one I think odds makers are thinking yes.postage stamp only 120 something yards,but winds make all par 3 holes here tuff.there are 156 golfers entered so probably best bet if there is one on thurs.or fri.(more golfers before cut).I would stay away cause of unpredictabilty with weather situation.besides hole in ones are tuff we should be getting plus odds for one on this prop imo hmm.

gltya jj on that list we be hanging together.curious to see what Hook has hopefully.

aloha Hat tip
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:44 pm    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

watched Day practicing he seems ok so if people like him pull trigger though again with caution just my opinion.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:49 pm    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

Last couple posts for reference gltall!

2016 British Open Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews

Don't bet against Sweden's Alex Noren on the European Tour when he has a 54-hole lead! Noren had that at least week's Scottish Open and brought home his fifth career Euro Tour title, all coming with a lead entering the final round. Noren shot a final-round 2-under 70 to finish at 14 under at Castle Stuart in northern Scotland and win by a shot over Tyrrell Hatton, with Nicolas Colsaerts, Danny Lee and Matteo Manassero a shot further back. Noren hadn't finished better than sixth in any event this year, but it was his fourth Top-10 finish in his last eight tournaments. Noren was the 15th winner this season on the Euro Tour to have led going into the final round. Remember, there was no PGA Tour event last week.

There were a handful of Americans playing as a warm-up to the British Open. Patrick Reed had the best result of them in Scotland with a tie for 10th at 9 under. Phil Mickelson was 13th at 7 under. I'm familiar with Noren but didn't have him winning last week or on any props. I did get Reed at +450 for a Top 10 and at +250 as the top American. Also hit on Padraig Harrington at +450 as the top Irishman. Just missed on another Swede, Henrik Stenson, for a Top 10 as he was T13. My pick to win was Branden Grace, but he was T29.

So now it's on to Royal Troon in Scotland for the 145th British Open. It's the ninth time the course has hosted the third major championship of the season. It last did in 2004 when unknown American Todd Hamilton beat Ernie Els in a playoff -- keep in mind that the British Open playoff format is four holes with an aggregate score. If it's still tied after that, it goes to sudden death. Hamilton has done virtually nothing since taking home the Claret Jug. Only four players from the Top 10 in 2004 are teeing it up this week: Mickelson, Lee Westwood, Els and Hamilton, who was the sixth straight American winner at Royal Troon.

Royal Troon is a par 71 at 7,190 yards. The most well-known hole is the par-3 8th, called "Postage Stamp." At 123 yards, it's the shortest hole in the British Open course rotation. Els had an ace there 12 years ago. The toughest hole during the 2004 Open was the par-4 11th, which played to a 4.41 stroke average. Needless to say, weather is likely to be a big factor this week.

The defending champion is Zach Johnson, who beat Louis Oosthuizen and Marc Leishman in a playoff at St. Andrews. Johnson birdied the 72nd hole to get to 15 under par for the tournament, the first to post that score. It was Oosthuizen's second playoff loss in a major (2013 Masters). Jordan Spieth entered having won the 2015 Masters and U.S. Open and missed the playoff by just a shot. He missed a crucial par putt on the 17th and then couldn't birdie No. 18 to get in the playoff. Spieth had nine holes of bogey or worse in the tournament. Jason Day also was a shot from the playoff. Remember that 2014 British Open champion Rory McIlroy missed last year's event due to injury.

There are 16 former Open champions in the 156-man field this week. Also playing are Justin Leonard and Mark Calcavecchia, who won the Open at Royal Troon in 1997 and 1989, respectively. The Open Championship is maybe my favorite major because when you get up in the morning on the weekend, the leaders are already playing. And links golf and that United Kingdom weather make it nearly a different sport than on the pristine courses on which we play golf in the USA.

Golf Odds: British Open Favorites

Dustin Johnson and Jason Day are the +800 favorites. Not a big fan of Johnson this week only because he has won his past two events, the U.S. Open and WGC-Bridgestone. You just don't win three tournaments in a row these days. He hasn't contended in a British Open since a T2 in 2011. And, frankly, his length isn't a big advantage on this shorter course. Day doesn't have a great British Open track record other than last year. He was third last time out at the WGC-Bridgestone.

McIlroy (+900), Spieth (+1000) and then a huge falloff to Adam Scott and Grace (+2200 each) round out the favorites. McIlroy hasn't actually played all that great on the PGA Tour this year but does have a recent win and a third-place finish in Europe. Spieth didn't contend his first two British Opens until last year. He comes off a third at the WGC-Bridgestone. Scott has four straight Top 10s in this tournament. Grace hasn't played too well at the British Open but has three Top 10s in his past four events this season.

Golf Odds: British Open Picks

Here are a few eliminator facts: 10 of the past 11 winners of The Open Championship had all made at least six prior starts in the event; of the past 11 winners at The Open Championship, 10 had a finish of sixth or better in a past one; and the past 15 major winners overall were all ranked 28th in the world or better.

Sportsbooks have too many props to address this week, including the score for several top players on their first hole of the tournament. There are a few groups vs. the field props. You can get Dustin Johnson, Day, McIlroy and Spieth at +150 vs. the field (-190). Or Scott, Sergio Garcia, Rickie Fowler and Mickelson at +600 vs. the field (-1100).

For a Top-10 finish, I like Day (-120), Spieth (even), Scott (+200) and Sergio (+225). Head-to-head, go Scott (-120) over Sergio (-110), Spieth (-105) over Dustin Johnson (-125), Day (-120) over McIlroy (-110), Reed (-125) over Charl Schwartzel (-105), Lee Westwood (-130) over Bubba Watson (even), and Fowler (-125) over Justin Rose (-105).

The past three major champions have been first-timers. So that makes me really ponder Sergio here. But I'm going with Scott. You best option thus might be the Scott/Garcia/Fowler/Mickelson vs. the field prop. Fowler's also looking for his first major.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:54 pm    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

1. Dustin Johnson, United States -- It's hard to bet against DJ, not only because he won the U.S. Open and the WGC Bridgestone Invitational in his last two starts, but because of the way he has played all season. It took him a while to win for the ninth consecutive season, longest active streak on the PGA Tour, but he has 10 results in the top 10 and 13 in the top 25 in 15 tournaments without missing the cut. Johnson is making his eighth appearance in the oldest championship in the world and he was in the chase all the way before tying for second, three shots behind Darren Clarke 2011 at Royal St. George's. DJ, who has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five majors, was tied for the lead with Clarke until driving out of bounds on the 14th hole.

2. Jason Day, Australia -- The No. 1 player in the World Golf Rankings will try to bounce back from his back nine meltdown when it appeared he was heading to victory in the U.S. Open at Oakmont. He also faltered in the final round of the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, but finished in a tie for third that was his eighth top-10 finish of the season, including three victories. Day has been the best player in the world since last July by winning seven times in that span, including his first major title in the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits last August. He has five top-10 results in the last six majors, including a tie for fourth in the Open Championship last year at St. Andrews, missing the playoff won by Zach Johnson after leading after 54 holes. That was his first top 10 in five Open starts.

3. Rory McIlroy, Northern Ireland -- Although he hasn't been as dominant as he was two years ago, when the was the best player in the world, Rory has had his moments this year, including a victory in the Irish Open and seven finishes in the top 10 on both major tours. He rallied to tie for third in the Scottish Open, but might still be smarting from missing the cut in the U.S. Open last month at Oakmont. McIlroy has four major titles to his credit and won the Open Championship the last time he played it, in 2014, by two strokes over Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia of Spain at Royal Liverpool. He has six top-10 results in the majors in the last three years, but missed his title defense last year at St. Andrews because of an ankle injury sustained playing soccer.

4. Jordan Spieth, United States -- Despite victories in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and the Dean & DeLuca Invitation, and a tie for second in the Masters, it's been something of an up-and-down season for Spieth after his brilliant 2015 took him to No. l in the world. He tied for 57th in the Memorial Tournament before tying for 37th in his title defense in the U.S. Open, but bounced back with a tie for third in the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in his last start. After winning the Masters and U.S. Open last year, Spieth was in the hunt all the way to the finish in the Open Championship at St. Andrews. After making a 50-foot birdie putt on the 16th hole to tie for the lead, he made bogey on the infamous road hole and tied for fourth, one shot out of the playoff won by Zach Johnson.

5. Adam Scott, Australia -- Much of the talk is before the Grand Slam events is about the best players without a major title, but Scott is among the very best with only one. When he became the first Aussie to win the Masters in 2013, there was talk that it might open the floodgates, but it hasn't happened. Scott had victories in the Honda Classic and the WGC-Cadillac Championship to start the Florida Swing early this year, but he finished out of the top 10 in seven consecutive events until tying for 10th in the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in his last start. The Aussie is making his 16th start in the Open Championship and has finished in the top 10 each of the last four years, including second in 2012, when he blew the 54-hole lead with a 75 and wound up two shots behind Ernie Els.

6. Rickie Fowler, United States -- When Rickie finished in the top five of all four majors two years ago, it appeared he was going to be a fixture in the Grand Slam events, but it hasn't worked out that way. In fact, he has failed to finish in the top 10 in the last six majors, missing the cut three times. Perhaps he is putting too much pressure on himself after getting so close. Fowler missed the cut in three straight events recently, but seemed to be back on his game when he tied for 10th his last time out in the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. He has finished in the top 10 twice in five appearances in the Open Championship, including a tie for second two years ago at Royal Liverpool, where he wound up two strokes behind Rory McIlroy. Fowler also tied for fifth in 2011 at Royal St. George's.

7. Henrik Stenson, Sweden -- The big Swede broke a winless streak that lasted nearly two years when he captured the BMW International Open in Germany late last month, and he bounced back from an opening 76 last week to tie for 13th in the Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open. This will be his latest chance to become the first Swedish male to win a major golf title and he has finished in the top 10 on nine occasions in the Grand Slam events, but none of those have come in the last two years. Stenson is playing in the Open Championship for the 12th time and his best chance to win came in 2013, when he couldn't keep up with Phil Mickelson down the stretch and finished solo second, three strokes back at Muirfield. He also tied for third in 2008 and 2010.

8. Sergio Garcia, Spain -- Another player near the top of the list of best golfers who have never won a major, Sergio has finished in the top 10 of Grand Slam events a whopping 21 times without lifting a trophy. The latest was a tie for fifth last month in the U.S. Open at Oakmont, where he tied for fifth. Garcia has had some other good results lately, including a victory in the AT&T Byron Nelson, third in the Open de Espana and a tie for fifth in the BMW International Open. He will be making his 20th start in the Open Championship and he finished two shots back in a tie for second behind Rory McIlroy at Royal Liverpool two years ago, and was solo second in 2007, when he lipped out a 10-foot putt to win on the 72nd hole and lost a playoff to Padraig Harrington at Carnoustie.

9. Phil Mickelson, United States -- Lefty hasn't won since his unlikely victory in the 2013 Open Championship at Muirfield, which gave him three-fourths of the Career Grand Slam. He has had chances to win this year with runner-up finishes in the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am and the FedEx St. Jude Classic, and last week he closed with a 66 to wind up 13th in the Scottish Open. Mickelson used that mostly as links practice for this week at Royal Troon, where he finished third, one stroke out of the playoff in which Todd Hamilton defeated Ernie Els in 2004. This will be Lefty's 19th appearance in the Open Championship, and he also finished three shots behind Darren Clarke in 2011 at Royal St. George's. Mickelson has only those three top-10 results in the oldest championship in the world.

10. Danny Willett, England -- The Masters champion flew under the radar before his surprise victory at Augusta, and he isn't getting very much attention heading into the third major of the year on home soil. However, this is a guy who must be considered, because he has claimed three of his five professional victories since last July and he leads the European Tour's season-long Race to Dubai thanks to five finishes in the top four. Willett, No. 9 in the World Golf Rankings, did not crack the top 10 in his first nine appearances in the major championships until he tied for sixth last year at St. Andrews and he obviously took what he learned to Augusta. This will be his fifth start in the Open Championship and he missed the cut in two of his first three, but tied for 15th in 2013 at Muirfield, pulling his game together after opening with a 75.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2016 2:58 am    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

Steveys golf picks

2 Units on Adam Scott 23/1 - Adam has won twice already this year and it doesn't seem like people are really talking about him. He also has two runner ups and enters the Open on the heels of 4 Top 18’s in his last 5 tournaments. If you date back to 2006 Scott has been the most consistent Open Championship golfer (2006 - T8, 2007 - T27, 2008 - T6, 2009 - CUT, 2010 - T27, 2011 - T25, 2012 - 2nd, 2013 - T3, 2014 - T5, 2015 - T10). Putting has always been the issue with Scott but this is the one Major when the greens aren’t lightning fast. He is one of the worlds premier ball strikers and that is what will carry him into contention yet again at this week Major.

2 Units on Rory McIlroy 11/1 - Simply put, Rory should be the favourite this week (DJ and Day are slightly ahead of him). Rory won his last start at an Open Championship (2014) and has proven his ability to dominate Major Championships (has won two Majors by 8 Strokes)(He has four Major wins). He has been playing great golf (US Open aside) and will do so again this week.

Martin Kaymer 50/1 - Kaymer is an interesting pick this week. Last year at the Open Kaymer finished T12, and his best finish ever at an Open came in 2007 (T7). I like him this week because he is a phenomenal iron player. He also enters playing great golf, with Top 13’s in 4 of his last 5. Kaymer played last week at the Scottish Open to prepare and his game looked solid all week (every round 72 or better when conditions were tough). The German has also been there and done it in Majors before (winner of 2010 PGA Championship and 2014 US Open). If it comes down to Sunday I will love to have Kaymer, as he never looks remotely nervous.

Tyrrell Hatton 200/1 - Very excited about this pick. He needed last week to qualify and I am thrilled he did. He has been on my short list for about a month now (and he wasn't even qualified). Hatton finished runner up to Noren last week at the Scottish Open (All rounds at 70 or less). He has been on a great role that started near the end of April at the Shenzhen International (solo 12th). Now in his last 8 tournaments he has 6 Top 20’s. The young Englishman has never made the Cut at the Open but he has never played anywhere near this good of golf (and he is only 24). His strength really relies on his iron play and putting. Nerves and chipping will be the two things that could hold him back, but I dont think they will.

Zander Lombard 650/1 - Remember Oosty winning at more than 200/1. Yes this is more than that but another South African people are going to get to know quickly. Lombard is only 21 and is absolutely loaded with talent. In his last 10 events Zander has 5 Top 12 finishes, 4 of those actually being Top 7. He has competed against the worlds best and hung right with them. If there is one Major Championship for a long shot to win, its 100% this one. This guy could do it!

Head to Head

Two plays this week - Yes both our plays are on the same player. This is a unique approach that I feel will be very beneficial.

2.5 Units on Rory McIlroy (-105) over Jason Day
2.5 Units on Rory McIlroy (-125) over Jordan Spieth
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2016 3:30 am    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

ok so day before the us open jordan spieth was doing a press conference.press were asking him questions you know the usual when all of a sudden a japanese press person asked him this.

do you think Hideki Matsuyama has a chance to win the US open.

now i give Speith credit what is he supposed to say.matsuyama is a good player etc.etc.which he did,and was nice about it.

guess what happened to DJ in his press conference today.japanese press person asked him same question if he felt matsuyama could win british open.again DJ was gracious with his answer,but like spieth what is he supposed to say.

Talk about a joke.this is why i have been saying that matsuyamas fade lately is because of the pressure from the japanese press.sure he wants to win,but he must be so much under pressure.he is a good player,great swing etc.he should be left alone to find his destiny instead of others trying their best to define,and pave the way for it.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:39 am    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

Wow in my league poi only 1 with DJ,Knox,and Sullivan.only 2 of us have Spieth.now poi knows he cheering for!

:group_wave: smokin!
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:54 am    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

I bet the prop will there be a playoff yes +285

added few guys also

Adam scott +1750
Justin Rose +3000
L. Oosthuizen +4400
Alex Noren +12500 (Big long shot)
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2016 9:22 am    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

aloha jj goodluck with the list u have my bro! Hat tip
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:10 pm    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

Poi my STENSON did good on day 2 -6 in that bad weather was pretty impressive .....still 2 days to go... Yeah! Yeah! Yeah! Yeah!
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 16, 2016 8:58 am    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 17, 2016 6:49 pm    Post subject: Re: The Open Championship

HENRIK STENSON BIG WINNER +2700 AWESOME OPEN performance past few days!!! Hat tip Hat tip chug it chug it Gun Slinger Gun Slinger Gun Slinger Gun Slinger :mo_money: :money: :mo_money: :money: :mo_money: :massage: :massage: :massage: :booty: :booty: :booty: :booty: bang bang bang bang bang
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