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All Forums > WHATS ON YOUR MIND > SPORTS SHIT > sweet 16 stuff!
sweet 16 stuff!
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:21 am    Post subject: sweet 16 stuff!

aloha



★★★Kansas 83 - Maryland 67—Maryland has advanced to the Sweet 16

for the first time since 2003. In the Round of 32, the Terps held only a 28-27

halftime lead over Hawaii, but picked up the pace after intermission when the

Rainbow Warriors went stone cold, the Terrapins winning 73-60. UM’s terrific

G-tandem of Melo Trimble & Rasheed Suliamon combined for 38 points. NBA-
bound 6-10 frosh Diamond Stone chipped in 14, while 6-9 sr. F Jake Layman,

who has raised his intensity level in his last hurrah, has scored 37 so far in the

Dance. The Terps managed to cover despite hitting a rim-rattling 1 of 18 from

downtown! This clash also has special meaning for UM mentor Mark Turgeon

(a Topeka native), who played at Kansas from 1983-87 and then served as an

assistant for Larry Brown & Roy Williams in Lawrence. He’s also familiar with

Bill Self, with Turgeon having coached at Texas A&M in the Big 12 from 2007-

11. However, have no desire to “short” top-seeded, super-deep Kansas,

executing at an elite level since late January.The high-octane, good-shooting Jayhawks (82 ppg; 49.6% FGs; 42.3% from

arc)— riding a 16-game win skein (13-3 vs. the spread)—came out smokin’ in

both of their early-rounders, outscoring Austin Peay and UConn by a combined

92-52 margin by halftime. Now that KU’s formidable frontline duo of 6-8 sr. F

Jamari Traylor & 6-10 jr. F Landen Lucas are locking down on the stop end, the

Terps “bigs” are likely find frustration in their attempt to establish a low-post

attack. Note that the vastly-improved Mr. Lucas has really stepped it up,

chipping in 22 pts., while collecting 20 rebounds & 5 blocks in 50 minutes of

action in the Big Dance!

Moreover, the Terps’ electric floor general, Melo Trimble—who leads his

team in scoring, assists & steals—will find no “comfort zone” vs. the Jayhawks’

menacing defensive stopper, 6-2 soph Devonte Graham. KU’s effective 5-11 jr.

G Frank Mason III (13.4 ppg) likely regains his touch after hitting an atypical 3

of 15 from the field so far in the NCAA tourney. Plus, UM should have a difficult

time with KU’s well-designed, high-low offense, highlighted by powerful 6-8 sr.

F Perry Ellis (16.7 ppg) & powerful 6-5 jr. Wayne Selden, Jr. (13.1 ppg). who

Selfs says is as consistent as any player he’s had in his 13 years in Lawrence.

With KU buoyed by the eager-to-travel Jayhawk Nation (it’s only a 355-mile trip

to L’Ville), we’re compelled to lay around 3 hoops with swaggering, defensively-
stout KU (67.9 ppg; 39.7% FGs allowed), which has won by 6 points or more in

28 of 32 victories TY.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:22 am    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

Miami 73 - Villanova 70—Villanova finally got the proverbial “monkey off its

back” by advancing to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009 with its

dominant 87-68 victory over Iowa, which had been in the midst of a late-season

implosion. The Wildcats put on a clinic in that first half, which HC Jay Wright

claimed was his team’s best 20 minutes all season. Defensively-strong

Villanova (allowing only 63.6 ppg) was just as overwhelming on the stop end,

effectively overplaying passing lanes, switching on ball screens, and converting

TOs into easy transition hoops, limiting Fran McCaffery’s normally good-
shooting bunch to 7 of 24 from the arc. Hey, we had no qualms laying only 3

hoops with Jay Wright’s laser-focused, veteran team vs. the limping, slower &

less-athletic Hawkeyes in the Round of 32.

But it’s a much different deal here. Wholeheartedly will recommend

grabbing a generous 4-pt. spread at presstime (TGS Ratings make ‘Nova only

2-pt. chalk) with a much more formidable foe in veteran, accurate-shooting

Miami (47.7% FGs), which knocked out defensively-smothering Wichita State

(and its Final Four experience) in the Round of 32. The Canes canned 55% from

the field, including 7 of 12 from downtown. After all, the Wildcats and their 4-G

offense have had issues with opponents with length & athleticism, such as

defense-minded Miami (yielding only 63.7 ppg), guided by mastermind Jim

Larrañaga, who led Cinderella George Mason to the Final Four in 2006.

So in this chess match pitting two respected, strategic mentors, support the

balanced, defensively-sticky Hurricanes (4 starters are DD scorers), primed to

advance to the Elite Eight for the first time in school history. ‘Nova’s highly-
efficient G duo of Ryan Arcidiacono & Josh Hart—who had it relatively easy

containing the slower, offensively-shaky Iowa Gs—will have an enormously

stiffer assignment vs. Miami’s marvelous backcourt trio of 6-6 Davon Reed

(11.3 ppg), legit NBA prospect 6-5 sr. Sheldon McClellan (15.8 ppg) &

bedeviling 5-11 sr. PG Angel Rodriquez (11.7 ppg, 4.7 apg), who erupted for 28

pts.,while collecting 5 assists & 4 steals vs. the defensively-conscientious

Shockers. Larrañaga says of Rodriquez, “His biggest challenge is he needs

competition. When the competition is at its highest, he is at his best.”

Furthermore, with the Hurricanes’ aggressive 7-0 sr. C Tonye Jekiri (8 ppg, 8.9

rpg;) & blue-collar 6-8 jr. F Kamari Murphy (5.8 rpg) patroling the paint area,

‘Nova’s only true post threat, 6-11 sr. C Daniel Ochefu, finds it rough sailing.

Keep in mind that Nova, which hits an ordinary 35.1% from the arc in its

dribble-drive, kick-out attack, has been connecting on a scorching 47% in the

Big Dance. Watch for a regression to the mean for the Cat gunners vs. Miami’s

switching defenses, which limited Wichita State to 33.8% from the field,

including 6 of 22 from tripleville. So, in what shapes up as a fast-paced, open-
court affair, must “invest” on undervalued Miami, representing the superior

ACC, which has sent an NCAA-record six teams to the Sweet 16.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:23 am    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

Duke 76 - Oregon 73—Don’t mind taking the points in the wild, wild West

Regional, where each of the four Round of 32 games came down to the last few

seconds, with each game falling within three points of the pointspread. Even

Duke had its backers biting their nails after the Blue Devils blew just about all of

a 27-point lead against Yale before a Grayson Allen FT with :08 left allowed

Duke to cover the 61⁄2-point spread, 71-64.Having been outscored 39-23 in the second half vs. Yale is one of the

reasons Duke, even with its defending national champ status and eight straight

Big Dance wins, plus part of the ACC caravan that has sent a record six entries

to the Sweet 16, is a slight underdog vs. Oregon in this contest taking place in

Pac-12 country at Anaheim’s Honda Center.

The athletic, streak-shooting Ducks have benefited nicely from being the top

seed in the West, first being able to stretch their legs in a virtual walkover (91-

52) vs. outclassed 15-19 First Four winner Holy Cross, and then outlasting

smallish Saint Joseph’s in a 69-64 Sunday thriller, with top guns Dillon Brooks,

Elgin Cook and Tyler Dorsey coming up big, with 25, 18 and 14 points,

respectively. But UO was out-rebounded 35-33, and you know that Coach K

was monitoring the proceedings intently after having advanced to the Sweet 16

for the 23rd time on Saturday. By way of contrast, this is just the second time HC

Dana Altman has made it to the Sweet 16. He has never made it further.

Matchup-wise, this is not a bad pairing for the Blue Devils, especially with 7-

0, 250-lb. C Marshall Plumlee having become more assertive with his increased

playing time following the loss of PF Amile Jefferson in December due to a foot

injury. Krzyzewski prefers to play with two frontliners and three Gs, and his

group of Grayson Allen (21.8 ppg), Brandon Ingram (17.1 ppg) and Luke

Kennard (11.8 ppg) are all expert at slashing to the hoop or hitting the open man.

Three of the Duke starters (Allen, Ingram and 6-5 Matt Jones) each hit a tick

better than 41% from downtown. And, in the first two rounds of the tourney,

Coach K seemed to make a point of stretching out his depth just a bit, with frosh

PG Derryk Thornton rotating in for more than half the game, and with 6-10

freshman F Chase Jeter getting 8 mpg.

Yes, this is a volatile and fearless Webfoot squad that’s on a postseason roll

in the Pac-12 tourney and NCAA early rounds. But the ACC Blue Devils are

arguably Oregon’s toughest test in that stretch. As mentioned frequently in

recent weeks, Duke’s lack of depth is eventually likely going to inhibit its

chances of repeating. But the champs go into this game well-rested and likely

well-focused vs. this Pac-12 foe, with HC Altman still searching for the key in his

quest to finally get past the Sweet 16.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:24 am    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

Texas A&M 72 - Oklahoma 70—It was Winston Churchill who liked to say

“Nothing in life is so exhilarating as to be shot at without result.” The Aggies can

certainly identify, considering their miracle double-OT escape Sunday vs.

upstart Northern Iowa, which amazingly blew a 12-point lead in the last 44

seconds of regulation to help Texas A&M stage the biggest last-minute

comeback in NCAA history. Thus, one of the questions in this game becomes

whether Texas A&M will fall victim to the fleeting glory of that success, or benefit

from the momentum generated by the intense, hustling defensive play that led

to that victory.

More likely it’s the latter, even though tough-minded, scrappy UNI seemingly

had the Aggies on the ropes so often. Even HC Billy Kennedy appeared

dumbfounded immediately after the game. But there’s a good chance that the

tough, denial and trapping defense repeatedly employed by A&M down the

stretch could play dividends in this ensuing match.

This Sweet 16 contest pairs two of the more experienced teams in the NCAA

field, as the Aggies start four seniors and the Sooners three. Oklahoma, with

Wooden Award candidate Buddy Hield (31.5 ppg in the first two rounds), owns

the shooting edge from distance (42.5% to 34.6%) and from the FT line (72.5%

to 67.6%). But the Aggies rebound the ball better (+4.5 rpg to +2.2). And top

scorer 6-7 Danuel House—with 22 points in the last five minutes and OT of the

victory vs. UNI—took command in an impressive way, much as he did with the

32 he scored in his team’s hard-fought 82-77 OT loss to Kentucky in the final of

the SEC tourney.

There were several other positives for the Aggies in that victory over

Northern Iowa. Such as the 25 points by 6-5 sr. Alex Caruso. A more confident

performance from 6-10 freshman C Tyler Davis (who had four fouls in A&M’s

first game, vs. Green Bay). And a clutch 11 points off the bench by 6-3 freshman

backup G Admon Gilder.

In the 6-7 House and 6-7 Jaylen Jones, A&M has some lengthy defenders to

try to check the hot-shooting Hield. Meanwhile, OU’s big men have not been

especially productive in the postseason. HC Lon Kruger deserves high praise

for steering no fewer than five different schools (Kansas State, Florida, Illinois,

UNLV, A&M) into the Big Dance. But in 15 tournament appearances, his teams

have made it to the Elite Eight only four times.

And despite its considerable experience in the starting lineup TY, Oklahoma

has not been a good pointspread proposition, covering only 6 of its last 25

games (4-17 when favored). In this year’s West Regional, when pointspread

winners have turned on one FT or one FG near the end, there are enough

reasons to shade the underdog.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:25 am    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

North Carolina 86 - Indiana 77—Here we go again with North Carolina and

Indiana, though we are a bit removed from their last Big Dance meeting in

Philadelphia (1981 national title game at the old Spectrum...read about it in our

cover story for this issue), or the epic 1984 Sweet 16 upset by a Steve Alford-
led underdog Hoosier team vs. top-ranked North Carolina and Michael Jordan

in one of Bob Knight’s finest hours (also in this week’s cover story!).

While we want to be careful about underestimating Indiana after doing so

last week in the Des Moines sub-regional, the challenge and the fundamental

matchups for the Hoosiers appear more difficult vs. UNC than they did a week

ago vs. Chattanooga and Kentucky. While guilty of analysis by hindsight in

regard to IU’s second-round win over John Calipari’s Wildcats, the Tar Heels

are a more refined, experienced, and balanced offensive machine than

Kentucky, mostly because of more consistent and reliable firepower from the

UNC bigs. While the Cats were missing several close-range shots, and 6-11

frosh Skal Labissiere flashed his inexperience on the big stage in the second

round, the Tar Heels are able to attack with abandon from the blocks, with the

deadly 6-9 Brice Johnson (17 ppg) and functional 6-8, 230-lb. PF Isaiah Hicks

both connecting on 61% from the floor. And while the Indiana perimeter

defense was able to benefit from a cold shooting effort by Kentucky wing Jamal

Murray (just 1 of 9 triples on Saturday), it has had problems denying dribble

penetration for much of the season. UNC Gs Marcus Paige and Joel Berry II

can be expected to relentlessly attack the paint and allow their teammates finish

at the rim, which Kentucky was unable to accomplish in the second round.

The Hoosiers cannot be dismissed, however, and do possess a puncher’s

chance with their decided edge from beyond the arc. Indiana hits 10 triples pg

(ranking 12th nationally). That’s in stark contrast to the season-long concern on

the Carolina side, as Roy Williams could not coax from his troops anything

better than a subpar 31.5% from three-point land. Indiana, with fireball G Yogi

Ferrell (17 ppg; 42% from tripleville) detonating the transition game, figures to

get its share of looks from downtown. But after hitting 10 of 16 triples vs.

Chattanooga, IU regressed to 6 of 21 beyond the arc vs. the tougher defensive

challenge offered by Kentucky.

Mostly, however, we believe this is a style matchup that does not work in

Indiana’s favor, as the Hoosiers must deal with a foe every bit as comfortable

playing uptempo, with a variety of offensive weapons to exploit a Hoosier team

that did not rank well in terms of its defensive efficiency. It might take a while

for UNC to deliver the knockout blow, but the Heels are built for this assignment

and can add to Roy’s already-gaudy 67-23 SU mark in 25 Big Dance

appearances. Early-round success by the ACC in the 2016 Big Dance (six

entries into the Sweet 16!) cannot be overlooked, either.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:26 am    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

Notre Dame 66 - Wisconsin 61—In stark contrast to the other ACC-Big Ten

matchup between Indiana and North Carolina that will likely resemble a track

meet, Notre Dame and Wisconsin are not going to be involved in a free-
wheeling, uptempo affair played at an NBA All-Star Game-like pace. Though

we doubt the Fighting Irish allow the Badgers to grind the tempo to a near-halt

as did Pitt in its opening-round 47-43 root canal loss vs. Wiscy, a development

that was received so poorly at home that Panther HC Jamie Dixon decided it

was the right time to escape his growing number of critics and leave town,

preferring a major rebuilding job (and no state income taxes in Texas) at alma

mater TCU than the “47-43 fallout” in the Steel City.

Win or lose, we highly doubt Notre Dame HC Mike Brey is going anywhere

after the Irish conclude their work in the Big Dance. But we do believe NotreDame can at least push its departure date until after the Elite Eight, as it did a

year ago in its narrow miss vs. then top-ranked Kentucky. That’s mostly

because we don’t envision Wisconsin out-executing Notre Dame in the clutch

as UW did vs. Pitt and skittish Xavier, whose various underclassmen were

playing out of control in the late going of the second-round battle vs. the Badgers

in St. Louis.

We would not expect the Fighting Irish execution to be nearly as sloppy down

the stretch, especially after Notre Dame showed it was made of some stern stuff

in forging its own late rallies to squeeze past Michigan and underrated Stephen

F. Austin last week in Brooklyn. Though Brey’s team lacks a bit of the pizzazz

and sharp edge of last year’s edition that featured current NBA employees

Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton, the Irish forged admirable balance this

season, with all starters scoring in double digits, while jr. G Demetrius Jackson

(15.5 ppg) assumed the on-court leadership role so ably filled by Grant a season

ago. Jackson delivers 5 apg and is able to detonate Brey’s motion-based

passing offense that appears a good remedy for the traditionally-sticky

Wisconsin defense. Along the way this season, ND’s 6-10 Zach Auguste

enjoyed a breakout campaign, averaging a double-double (14 ppg, 10 apg).

Like ND, the Badgers also left it late in their last two games and have a core

of weapons every bit as familiar with March pressure as do the Irish, as Wiscy

aims for a third straight Final Four trip. New HC Greg Gard has also proven to

be a worthy successor to mentor Bo Ryan and knows all about the Sweet 16 drill

after being at Ryan’s side the past several seasons. While the emergence of 6-

9 RS frosh Ethan Happ (12 ppg) has given Gard a nice third scoring option,

Wiscy is still likely to look for G Bronson Koenig (he of the game-winning triple

at the buzzer vs. the “X”) or rough-and-tumble F Nigel Hayes (16 ppg) at crunch

time. The Brey offense is also fuctioning at a high level, as ND made 61% of

its shots inside the arc and 53% of its triples vs. 11-seed Michigan on Friday and

made 67% of its shots inside the arc against SFA. Brey also seems to have a

few more options (including 6-6 frosh reserve Rex Pflueger, whose tip-in in the

final second completed ND’s last-minute surge vs. SFA) at crunch time. And,

after watching the first two rounds of the Dance, we’re comfortable

recommending the ACC whenever in doubt this March.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:28 am    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

Virginia 69 - Iowa State 67—Usually, in these relatively shorter-priced

tournament games, we are a bit reluctant to split hairs and forecast a favored

team to win but not cover the number. That’s because games often finish as did

Virginia’s second-round win over Butler, when the Cavs were nursing a tight

lead into the last 20 seconds, but a combination of UVa free throws and missed

three-pointers by the Bulldogs would stretch the final margin to eight points. But

looking closely at this matchup vs. Iowa State, we have a hard time envisioning

Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers being able to extend the margin. And, in a likely nip-
and-tuck finish, we will probably be glad to have recommended the Big 12

Cyclones plus the handful of points the oddsmakers are offering.

Not many teams would appear built to deal with Virginia’s snarling pack-line

defense, which is designed to limit dribble penetration and post touches. Iowa

State, however, seems to be one such team, with the ability to shoot over the

pack-line, if needed, with a collection of explosive elements who can all (save C

Jameel McKay) launch the three-ball, on which the Cyclones connected 39% of

the time this season. Facing another robust stop-end team that, like the Cavs,

was ranked in the nation’s top three scoring defenses, ISU’s weapons strafed

Little Rock in the second round, when the Cyclones appeared to do what they

pleased on the attack end en route to hitting 57% from the floor and 52.4%

beyond the arc, canning 11 of 21 triples. With 6-4 jr. Matt Thomas (11 ppg; 43%

threes) having emerged as another capable scoring threat to complement do-
everything 6-8 F Georges Niang (20.2 ppg), and with assist machine Monte

Morris (7 apg) providing top-flight service, ISU will stretch Bennett’s defense likefew ACC foes, or Butler (and certainly Hampton) last week in Raleigh.

While we expect the upperclassmen-heavy Cyclones can push Virginia to

the limit, we think there is a decent chance the Cavs can still survive and move

to the Elite Eight. With recent nemesis Michigan State now out of the way, ISU

might be the most significant impediment in the way of the Cavs reaching their

first Final Four since their 1984, post-Ralph Sampson surprise team under HC

Terry Holland. The Cavs are more than their defense these days, with 6-5 sr.

G Malcolm Brogdon (18.6 ppg) in the Wooden Award mix and backcourt mate

PG London Perrantes now a more-accomplished offensive threat after upping

his three-point shooting to the 50% range. The Cavs also rarely blow games at

the FT line, converting almost 76% of their charity tosses, ranking atop the ACC.

For all of ISU’s 82 ppg firepower, it also allowed more than 75 ppg, which is why

the Cyclones lost 11 times this season. The commitment to defense and poise

exhibited by the Cavs likely gets them to the Elite Eight. After shooting 73% and

scoring 54 in the second half to turn around a halftime deficit vs. sticky Butler,

Virginia is not yet ready to go home. But the Cyclones, who have plenty of

experience “losing close” this season, will not make it easy for the ‘Hoos in

Chicago.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:29 am    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

Gonzaga 69 - Syracuse 61—What a wacky season this has been in college

hoops, summed up no better than by Gonzaga and Syracuse teams clashing as

unlikely Sweet 16 foes just a few weeks after many bracketologists had one or

both missing the Big Dance entirely. (We will point out that we had Gonzaga in

all of our projections throughout the winter, though not so much for Syracuse,

while ESPN’s “St. Joe’s” Lunardi seemed to have it opposite, almost always

including the Orange in his various fields of 68, but more often than not having

the Zags as one of his “first four” or “next four” teams out of the Dance.)

Most assuredly, Syracuse has quieted its many detractors who complained

loud and hard on Selection Sunday about the Orange getting an invitation. But,

at the same time, the clouds parted nicely in the sub-regionals for Jim

Boeheim’s team, as A-10 Dayton was a spent force late in the season before

rolling over without much fight in the first round, and the ‘Cuse would catch

longshot Middle Tennessee off of a one of the major upsets in Dance history

after the Blue Raiders shocked Michigan State. Rest assured the Zags are

going to offer stiffer resistance at the United Center.

As is always the case vs. Syracuse, how well the opposition can navigate the

treacherous Boeheim zone defense will be key. This is a challenge, however,

that looks within the capabilities of the Zags, who just dissected a rugged Utah

defense in the second round after chopping up hot Seton Hall in the first round

at Denver. Gonzaga appears uniquely equipped to shoot over the Boeheim

defense, connecting on an impressive 38% of its triples, with 6-9 Kyle Wiltjer

(20.4 ppg) better than 43% from downtown. After the Zags hit nine from beyond

the arc and shot 56% vs. the lengthy and disruptive Utes, dealing with the

Boeheim zone does not appear especially problematic.

Wiltjer is just one of the unique elements on HC Mark Few’s latest creation

from his Spokane lab, as raging 6-11 soph Domantas Sabonis (17 ppg & 12 rpg)

is a possible NBA lottery pick and will demand attention on the blocks. It took

a while for the pieces to fit for Few, who lost 7-foot, 290-lb. Polish C Przemek

Karnowski in December and was breaking in a new backcourt. The guard play,

however, is no longer a weakness, especially former Vandy transfer Eric

McClellan, who took Seton Hall’s red-hot Isaiah Whitehead out of the first round

matchup before scoring 22 of his own against Utah. Though depth remains an

issue for the Zags, Boeheim’s rotations don’t go beyond seven players, and the

sometimes-sporadic Cuse offense (just 42.9% FGs) has to deal with more

length on the Gonzaga defense than it has in the first two rounds. With 13

losses, and somewhat dubious wins in the sub-regionals, there is nothing to

suggest this is a vintage Boeheim edition. And unless streak shooters Trevor

Cooney and Malachi Richardson (who combined for 14 triples last weekend)

step up, as they could not on a consistent basis this season, pressure might

again be on versatile 6-7 Orange sr. Michael Gbinije (17.8 ppg) to carry too

much of the scoring load.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:41 pm    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Tidbits
> From the Playbook Sweet 16 Tournament Guide: No.1 seeds off BB ATS wins (Kansas) are 19-8 ATS in NCAA Sweet 16 round... PAC-12 teams (Oregon) are 2-6 ATS L8Y in Sweet 16 round.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:41 pm    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

> From the Playbook Sweet 16 Tournament Guide: Best conferences in this round: SEC 7-1-1 ATS and Big East 5-1 ATS as dogs. Worst conferences in this round: Big 12 0-6 ATS and PAC 12 2-6 ATS.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:43 pm    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

Syracuse is 20-5 in NCAA
tourney games versus No. 10
or lower seeds.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:18 am    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

Thx for info
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:30 am    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

NCAA SWEET 16 ROUND NOTES
• #1 Seeds off BB SUATS wins are 19-8 ATS (Kansas)
• #2 Seed favs of > 4 pts are 2-6-1 ATS (Villanova)
• #3 Seed dogs of > 4 pts are 6-1 ATS (Miami Florida)
• #4 Seed dogs < 6 pts are 6-1 ATS (Duke, Iowa St)
• #5 Seeds off a DD SU win are 0-4 ATS (Maryland)
• #6 Seeds off a SU favorite win are 5-0 ATS (Notre Dame)
• #7 Seed dogs of 3< pts are 1-3 ATS (Wisconsin)
• #10 or worse seed dogs of > 4 pts are 6-1 ATS (Syracuse)
• Favorites off a SU win of 20 > pts are 0-4 ATS (Gonzaga)

Best Team ATS records in this round
Wisconsin 3-0, Oregon, Virginia 2-0, Oklahoma 4-1, Duke 3-1.

Worst Team ATS records in this round
Miami-Fl 0-2, Syracuse 1-6, Gonzaga, Indiana 1-3, Kansas 4-10.

Best Conference ATS records in this round
SEC: 7-1-1, Big East: 5-1 as dogs
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Big 12: 0-6, MVC: 0-4, West Coast: 1-3, Pac 12: 2-6

NCAA ELITE 8 ROUND NOTES
• #1 Seed favs > 7 pts are 1-9 ATS
• #2 Seeds are 3-10-1 ATS off a DD ATS win
• #3 Seeds are 2-9 ATS
• #4 Seeds are 11-3 ATS
• #5 Seeds are 7-0 ATS
• #6 Seeds are 2-5 ATS
• #7 Seeds are 3-1-1 ATS
• #8 Seeds are 5-1 ATS
• Teams that score 67 < pts are 17-49 SU & 17-46-3 ATS
• Teams that score 85 > pts are 29-7 SU & 26-8-2 ATS
• Teams off 3+ ATS wins are 7-1-1 ATS
• Teams with Revenge are 16-6-1 ATS
• Dogs off 3 straight DD wins are 2-7-1 ATS

Best Conference ATS records in this round
Big East: 6-1 as dogs 4 < pts, Big 10: 5-1 as dogs, SEC: 5-1 as favs 7 > pts, Pac 12: 4-1 as dogs.

Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Big 12: 0-11, ACC: 0-4 as favs > 7 pts, Pac 12: 1-5 as favs 2 > pts, Big East: 1-4 as favs 4 < pts, SEC: 2-5 as favs < 7 pts.

COACH ME IF YOU CAN
• Duke s Mike Krzyzewski is 20-5 SU from the Elite 8 Round out since 1991, including 15-2 ATS when not favored by 7 or more points
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 24, 2016 8:18 am    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

Good info thanks POI
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2016 5:53 am    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

(1) North Carolina over (5) Indiana by 3

Seldom have we seen a team pay such a big price as Indiana did for

getting bounced out of its conference tournament in the fi rst round. That

loss to Michigan caused the Big Ten regular season champ Hoosiers to be

under-seeded and locked into a bracket for a Game Two matchup with

Kentucky, a contest usually reserved for the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. Despite

getting no love from the selection committee, though, Tom Crean’s

team survived to reach today’s game against the top-seeded Tar Heels.

Only No. 1 overall seed Kansas brought more wins into the fi eld than

opening-day opponent Chattanooga, and IU’s 99-74 destruction of the

Mocs prompted UTC coach Matt McCall to say, “They’re going to make a

really deep run into this thing.” McCall proved to be a prophet as Indiana

forced Kentucky into 16 turnovers and stopped the Wildcats, 73-67, to

move on to today’s game in Philly between two of the highest-scoring

squads left in the fi eld. North Carolina’s tourney M.O. has been to play a

close fi rst half, then turn on the afterburners following intermission: the

Tar Heels’ two wins over Florida-Gulf Coast and Providence saw UNC pull

away and win the second half by identical 15-point margins. But while

North Carolina ranks as the top team in the Sweet 16 in Assists Per Game

(17.8) and Rebound Margin (8.3) – ask Michigan State how being the top-
rated team in key categories worked out this tournament, the Heels have

been guilty of lengthy defensive lapses that kept lesser opponents within

striking distance. Such a lapse could be fatal tonight as the Big Ten has

dominated the ACC in this round, going 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS since 1992.

In the coaching matchup, Carolina’s Roy Williams owns a lethargic 6-11

ATS mark in his last 17 battles with Big Ten foes when off a SUATS win,

while Indiana’s Crean has gone 6-3 ATS versus No. 7 higher seeded teams

in this tourney, including 3-1 ATS versus greater than .828 opposition.

The Hoosiers have enough size down low to counter the foul-prone

Carolina ‘bigs’ and IU guard Yogi Ferrell has caught fi re at just the right

time (38 points and 14 assists in two wins). The icing on the cake is a

recommendation from our very own SMART BOX to fade the Heels – and

when the square talks, we listen. Can’t call for the outright upset but

grabbing the points with a determined bunch of Hoosiers is the way to

go here.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2016 5:54 am    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

(1) Virginia over (4) Iowa State by 10

Both squads feature can’t miss NBA prospects in UVA’s Malcolm Brogdon

(the ACC Player of the Year) and Iowa State team leader Georges Niang, a

rare 4th-year senior who’s averaging 20.2 PPG. But today’s matchup is clearly

a ‘numbers game’. The Cyclones have been dangerous dogs this season when

limiting opponents to fewer than 80 points, posting an impressive 19-2 SU

and 14-4-1 ATS record. But when ISU fails to score at least 74 in this event,

they fi zzle out to a puny 4-9 SU and 5-8 ATS mark. If you’re one of those

that believe in the adage ‘defense wins championships’, check this out: as of

March 21, Virginia ranked second nationally behind departed Wichita State

in scoring ‘D’, allowing just 59.5 PPG (Iowa State ranked #248!) – so it’s safe

to say the ‘Clones won’t come anywhere near reaching the all-important

74-point mark against the Cavaliers. And while Virginia may own the

weakest rebounding team of the remaining teams (32.03), our all-knowing

database counters with this nugget: No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16 round who

failed to beat the spread in their previous game are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS

as single-digit favorites versus sub .750 foes. In fact, the only thing holding

us back from making an even bigger play is the current 5-point line as Sweet

16 No. 1 seeds off an ATS loss are just 4-5 SU and 1-8 ATS as favorites of 5 or

fewer points. If someone should tempt you to take a money-line shot with

Iowa State, remember that the Cyclones are a disastrous 0-7 SU in their last

seven tourney appearances versus No. 1 or 2 seeds. We’ve seen high-scoring

teams smothered by the Cavs’ defense enough times this season to pass on

the fl ash and go with the grind-it-out Wahoos.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2016 5:55 am    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

(6) Notre Dame over (7) Wisconsin by 3

Notre Dame’s win over Duke in the ACC Tournament was quickly

forgotten after the Irish were squashed by North Carolina, 78-47, so

few expected Mike Brey’s boys to rebound in the Big Dance with a win

over play-in foe Michigan. And let’s face it: the Dame was ready to go

down against Stephen F. Austin last Sunday until unheralded Rex ‘Fluke’

Pfl ueger tapped in a missed shot with just 1.5 seconds left – his only

made fi eld goal since March 5th. Wisconsin has taken a similar path

to this game, getting booted in the fi rst round of the Big Ten tourney

by Nebraska, then somehow eking out a pair of SU underdog wins in

NCAA Tournament games they clearly should have lost (scored only

16 points in fi rst half against Pittsburgh and trailed by 9 points with 6

minutes left versus Xavier). What makes Bucky’s run even more amazing

is the fact that veteran HC Bo Ryan stepped down on December 22nd

and handed the reins to Greg Gard, and by mid-January the team that

had tangled with Duke in last year’s National Championship game was

fl oundering at 9-9. Both squads are returnees from last season’s Sweet

16 but our SMART BOX call on this game between two defensive titans

is incomplete at the moment, pending the status of whichever team

settles in as the favorite (most sportsbooks currently list the contest as

a Pick). Until that happens, we’ll side with a Notre Dame outfi t that

commits the fewest fouls per game of any team in the nation (15.2)

versus a Wisky squad that is the Sweet 16’s weakest in Assists Per Game

(11.4). Granted, the Badgers can claim a glimmering 16-4 ATS mark

versus ACC foes, and like Indiana above, the Big Ten has dominated

the ACC in this round (9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS since 1992). The deal-breaker

comes courtesy of our database: teams in this round, off a win-no-cover,

are 15-3 SU when taking on a foe off a SU underdog victory, including

6-0 SU versus greater-than No. 6 seeded opponents. We also believe

that having Ryan on the sidelines would have been a huge edge for

the Badgers, but having to go with rookie Greg Gard leaves us leaning

with the Irish. Look for Notre Dame’s sticky ‘D’ to deny Wisconsin

sharpshooter Bronson Koenig any late-game heroics here as Brey and

company move one step closer to the Final Four.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2016 5:56 am    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

(10) Syracuse over (11) Gonzaga by 2

This marks the fi rst time in NCAA tournament history that 15 of the

16 Sweet 16 teams are from Power 5 Conferences – yet we’ve still got

a matchup between double-digit seeds this late in the Dance. That’s

because Syracuse and Gonzaga have both caught fi re in a big way: the

Orange outscored their fi rst two foes by 19 and 25 points, while the Zags

almost duplicated that feat with a 16-point win and a 23-point win. It’s

also a showdown between two of the college game’s best head coaches,

Jim Boeheim and Mark Few. While we’ve got the utmost respect for the

Gonzaga head coach, this is Boeheim at his best – 28-9 SU versus a lower-
seeded foe in this tourney, including 20-5 SU versus No. 10 or lower seeds,

with only ONE LOSS by more than 4 points. It’s fi tting that Boeheim, like

us a huge Bruce Springsteen fan, has taken a team that most talking heads

thought should’ve been relegated to the NIT and is once again putting on

a masterful ‘Brilliant Disguise’ during March Madness. With the Spokane

Bulldogs currently on a 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS run, the linesmakers knew

they had to up the price from the -1 and -2-point lines carried by the Zags

against Seton Hall and Utah, and we’ll gladly take the gift. After all, our

SMART BOX forewarns that Sweet 16 returnees like Gonzaga may be 14-6

SU in this round when facing a sub .700 foe but they’re only 4-15-1 ATS

(it’s called playing down to the level of the opposition). Yes, the Bulldogs

are the best free throw shooting team left in the tournament (75.8) but

Syracuse was whistled for only 9 fouls in its 75-50 blowout of giant-killer

Middle Tennessee on Sunday. And if the Orange’s 4-1 ATS mark as dogs off

a win versus .735 or greater foes this season still leaves you wanting more,

there’s always The Clincher: No. 10 or lower seeds returning to the

Sweet 16 round for a 2nd straight year are 0-5 SUATS since 1990.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2016 5:59 am    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

With the 2016 NCAA Tournament entering the

SWEET 16 round, let’s take a different perspective

in analyzing the teams that have arrived. This

one pertains specifi cally to teams that are returning to the

SWEET 16 for the 2nd straight year. Do these experienced

teams perform with aplomb or do they bomb? Let’s take

a peek.

ALL HANDS ON DECK – Much like last year, six teams

return to the Round of 32 this season. They include Duke,

Gonzaga, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Oklahoma,

and Wisconsin. According to our database, since 1992,

teams making a right-back appearance in the SWEET 16 are

77-48 SU but only 55-67-3 ATS in this round of the tourney.

The cut-line, however, is often times the pointspread. That’s

confi rmed by the fact that ‘pick’ or favorites of 6 points or

less are just 24-22 SU and 15-30-1 ATS (although 3-0 ATS

last year). Gonzaga, North Carolina and Oklahoma fi nd

themselves failing to make the cut this year, with the Notre

Dame-Wisconsin game currently sitting on the bubble.

NOT QUITE A '10' – Looking at it from a varied perspective,

SWEET 16 returnees seem to struggle when arriving off a

win of less than 10 points, going just 31-25 SU and 21-33-2

ATS. This year fi nds Duke, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and

Wisconsin coming up short in the gene pool. And making

matters worse, if any of these sweet tomatoes sport a high

profi le public-loving win percentage of .790 or greater on

the season, they fall to 10-22-1 ATS. Not good news for

the Sooners.

SUB 7'S – It’s easy for teams to breathe a sigh of relief

when they return to the Sweet 16 for a 2nd straight season.

Especially so when they take on not-so-stellar opposition

(read: less-than .700 foes). In playing down to the level of

this type of opposition, these returnees are a competent

14-6 SU but only 4-15-1 ATS. Don’t be surprised to fi nd

Gonzaga torpedoed against the spread this Friday. (Note:

both Notre Dame and Wisconsin square off with each team

owning a sub. 700 win percentage).

SEEDY DEVELOPMENT – As expected, #1 and #2 seeds fare

the best in Sweet 16 games as returnees, going 56-17 SU

combined. To the spread, however, they are small money

burners, going 35-37-1 ATS. Meanwhile, #4 or lower seed

returnees are just 14-23 SU and 16-19-2 ATS. That’s not good

news for Duke, Gonzaga, Notre Dame and Wisconsin.

Even worse news for the Zags, though, is a 4-16 SU and

5-14-1 ATS mark in Sweet 16 games when these #4 or lower

seeds are facing a foe off a double-digit win.

Make no mistake, when it comes to handicapping teams

in the SWEET 16, the winners will likely be the better-
qualifi ed teams that have ‘been there-and-done that’. Or

those who know how to keep a ship afl oat, if you know

what I mean...
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 25, 2016 7:39 pm    Post subject: Re: sweet 16 stuff!

Thanks for posting POI
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