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All Forums > WHATS ON YOUR MIND > SPORTS SHIT > nba playoff stuff!
nba playoff stuff!
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PostPosted: Fri May 27, 2016 10:25 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Thanks POI
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PostPosted: Fri May 27, 2016 11:38 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

NBA Playoff BIG home underdogs of +6.5 or more points (Raptors on Friday) have gone 2-13 ATS in last four seasons...


Tonight's Eastern Conference Finals Head Referee (Dan Crawford) has gone a combined 4-15 O/U in Cleve Cavs or Tor Raptors games L12 months.
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PostPosted: Fri May 27, 2016 11:38 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

> NBA Playoff home underdogs (Raptors +6.5) in the '3.6' game (ROUND 3 / GAME 6) have gone a PERFECT 0-7 O/U since 1990... Average combined points in these games: just 177.1.
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PostPosted: Fri May 27, 2016 11:43 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Cheer up Toronto Raptors bettors.

Yes, Wednesday’s 116-78 blowout loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals stung (Cleveland covered the 11-point spread by 27 points) but there are brighter skies ahead – at least so says NBA Playoffs betting history.

Going back to the 1990-91 NBA season, playoff teams coming off a loss of 30 or more points are a profitable 36-20 ATS (26-30 SU) in their following postseason game, covering the spread 64 percent of the time. And looking closer at teams fresh from an ass-waxing of 38 points-plus (like Toronto is in Game 6), those clubs have rebounded with a 9-3 ATS mark (5-7 SU), a 75 percent winner at the window.

The Raptors are 6-point underdogs at home to LeBron James and the Cavaliers Friday. Toronto was trucked in Games 1 and 2 of the series in Cleveland, but returned serve with two wins as a home pup in Games 3 and 4. The Dinos are 5-5 ATS at the Air Canda Centre this postseason.

Home cooking has helped teams bounce back from a bad loss during that 25-year span. Since the 1991 NBA Playoffs, home teams reeling from a 30-plus point loss the game before are 17-7 ATS (14-10 SU), which is a 71 percent payday.

Those teams off a crushing loss have scored an average of 96.33 points for while allowing an average of 98.03 points against, versus an average spread of +6.67. Home sides in this situation have a positive points for/against count of 100.04-97.16 with an average pointspread of +5.4.

This trend is, however, reserved to the playoffs. Looking into that same situation during the regular season returns a record of 301-600 ATS (342-559 SU), with teams off a 30-plus beatdown covering just 33 percent of the time in the following game. Basic logic tells us that playoff clubs are much more talented than team losing big in the regular season, with an ability to shake off those one-sided defeats and return to form.

This postseason trend has also paid well for Under bettors. Playoff teams coming off a loss of 30 or more points have gone 23-33 Over/Under in the following contest, staying below the total at a 59 percent clip.
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PostPosted: Fri May 27, 2016 11:45 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

The home team has won each of the first five games of the Eastern Conference Finals between Cleveland and Toronto. The Cavaliers look to break that trend with a victory on Friday night in Game 6 at the Air Canada Center where they have lost twice already in this series. However, Toronto is seeking to reach a decisive seventh game for the third consecutive round in the playoffs after suffering a humiliating loss in Game 5.

Cleveland dominated Toronto at Quicken Loans Arena for the third time in this series as the Cavaliers jumped out to an 18-point lead after the first quarter and never looked back. The Cavs crushed the Raptors, 116-78 to easily cash as 11-point favorites, while grabbing a 31-point halftime advantage, the largest ever in conference finals history. Kevin Love bounced back from a subpar effort in Game 4 in which he sat out the fourth quarter as he poured in a game-high 25 points in Game 5. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving each scored 23 points, as the Cavaliers shot a scorching 57% from the floor.

It was a game to forget for the Raptors, who came off a pair of impressive home underdog victories in Games 3 and 4 to even the series. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan were the only two Toronto players to register double-figures in Game 5, combining for 27 points on 7-of-20 shooting from the floor. The Raptors shot 39% from the floor, while misfiring on 14-of-17 three-point attempts and missing 14 free throws. The only positive to come out of the Game 5 disaster was the return of center Jonas Valenciunas, who came off the bench following an eight-game absence to score nine points on 4-of-4 shooting from the field.

The Cavaliers have yet to win north of the border this season, losing in all four tries, including twice in the regular season. In all four defeats, Cleveland has scored less than 100 points, although in two of the losses finished with 99 points. In the 105-99 setback in Game 4, the Cavaliers attempted 41 shots from three-point range (making 13), while going to the line only nine times. Lowry and DeRozan carried the Raptors in Game 4, combining for 67 points, as Lowry knocked down four treys in each of the two home victories.

Cleveland owns a perfect 5-0 record the last two postseasons when trying to close out a series, but Tyronn Lue’s club failed to cover in series-clinching victories over Detroit and Atlanta in the first two rounds. The Cavs won those two games by a combined three points, but have closed out four of their last five playoff series with road victories since 2015. Toronto has won in both of its tries in elimination games in this postseason, although each time came with both squads trying not to get knocked out in seventh game wins over Indiana and Miami.

It’s hard to ignore Toronto’s perfect 7-0 record at home in the playoffs coming off a loss, while Dwane Casey’s squad has covered four straight games at the Air Canada Center. Since allowing 100 points in the playoff opener to Indiana, the Raptors have yielded less than 100 points in regulation in nine straight home contests, resulting in a 5-4 mark to the 'over.’

NBA expert Chris David weighs the options on betting these squads, “You can handicap Game 6 a couple different ways and you could be very hesitant to do so. Based on the eyeball test from Game 5, you’re leaning to the Cavaliers on Friday but will they lay an egg like they did in Game 3 at Toronto? Or will Cleveland finally show up for a full 48 minutes at the Air Canada Centre and advance to the finals? The answers to those questions are arguable and that’s where you could be decisive.”

David believes that the Raptors are the look as long as you stick to the numbers, “If you’re handicapping the game on angles and trends, then you’re all-in on Toronto. The home team has won and covered the first five games in this series and the Raptors play much better in Canada. They’ve gone 8-2 in the playoffs at home in the playoff losses came by 10 and six points, compared to dropping six of their seven road playoff games by double digits. Cleveland has gone 4-2 on the road in the playoffs but it’s just 2-4 versus the number in those games and only two wins came by double digits.”

When the Raptors lose, they get blown out. So is it worth taking the points on Friday? “Since the point-spread hasn’t mattered in any of Toronto’s games as an underdog in the playoffs, I wouldn’t recommend taking the points. Instead, I would grab the 15/1 odds on the adjusted series price and hope they force a Game 7 on Sunday. If that happens, you can buy back Cleveland in the decisive matchup or let it ride and hedge out with possible Live Betting or halftime wagers. Either way, the series price offers more value to me than the money-line in Game 6, which is plus-230 at most betting shops,” David says.

This postseason has seen its share of blowouts, as clubs coming off a loss of 20 points or more own a 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS record. However, home underdog have gone 3-2 SU/ATS, including Oklahoma City’s Game 3 victory over Golden State in the Western Conference Finals in this situation. Last postseason, road teams leading a series 3-2 posted a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS record in Game 6, while that scenario has come up only once in the 2016 playoffs as the Raptors lost at Indiana in Game 6 of the first round trying to advance.

David provides his view on the total, which has dropped to 196. “Depending when and where you’ve played totals in this series, your bankroll could have differing results. Per our closing numbers, the ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2-1 in the first five games and the ‘under’ tickets were definitely helped with some poor offensive production in the final quarters.”

“The total for Game 5 opened at 197 and you can certainly make a sound case for either wager. However, the last two postseasons that the Raptors were sent packing, they gave up 125 and 104 points. Toronto’s offense should be better at home but if you believe Cleveland will advance on Friday, then I believe you’ll see some points. My lean is to the Cavs team total over (101 ½) and the high side in the game too.”

The Cavaliers opened as 6 ½-point favorites for Game 6 and that number has held steady. The game tips off at 8:35 PM EST from Toronto and can be seen nationally on ESPN.
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PostPosted: Fri May 27, 2016 11:46 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

NBA

Toronto-Cleveland (C 3-2)
Home team has dominated series, winning all five games by 21.8 point average; over is 6-4-1 in last 11 series games, with home team 8-0 in last eight. Cavaliers lost last four games in Canada (0-4 vs spread). Cavs are 4-2 on road in playoffs. Lowry/DeRozan went a combined 28-43 in Game 4, scoring 67 points; but went 7-20 in Game 5. Raptors are 8-2 at home in playoffs. Home sides are 9-1 vs spread in conference finals.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 5-5, over: 4-5-1
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PostPosted: Fri May 27, 2016 11:47 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | CLEVELAND at TORONTO
Play Against - Home underdogs (TORONTO) revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more
83-46 since 1997. ( 64.3% | 32.4 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.3 units )

NBA | CLEVELAND at TORONTO
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better
95-38 since 1997. ( 71.4% | 40.7 units )
9-5 this year. ( 64.3% | 2.0 units )

NBA | CLEVELAND at TORONTO
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points in a playoff game
482-324 since 1997. ( 59.8% | 125.6 units )
38-30 this year. ( 55.9% | 5.0 units )
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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2016 8:08 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Golden State Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Warriors are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Oklahoma City Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Head to Head Warriors are 0-5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Oklahoma City.
Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Oklahoma City.





TV: 9 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State needs the Draymond Green that delivered 11 points, 13 rebounds, four blocks and only two turnovers in Game 5 to make the trip back to Oklahoma City with the team. The Warriors emotional leader was off his game in the two big losses at the Thunder, combining to go 2-of-16 from the field and commit 10 turnovers. “The one thing I can control is how I go out there and fight and battle,” Green told reporters. “That was my mind-set (Thursday): I was coming to a fight. That’s it. I’m going to go out there and do that. If all else fails, I’m going to fight. That’s what I did, and that’ll be my mind-set for the rest of the series.”

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Durant scored 40 points in Thursday’s loss and Russell Westbrook added 31 but the two could not get enough help from anyone else to close out the series. Oklahoma City received a combined 30 points from Andre Roberson and 23 from Dion Waiters in Games 3 and 4 but watched the pair of guards put up a total of six points (all from Roberson) in Game 5. "It's a series right now," Thunder coach Billy Donovan told reporters. "…Travel back, again, try to continually evolve and get better from this. Find ways that we need to improve, things that we need to do, and then get ready to play again for this next one. Get ready to play Game 6."

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Warriors C Andrew Bogut scored a postseason career-high 15 points to go with 14 rebounds on Thursday.

2. Oklahoma City G Anthony Morrow recorded a 2016 playoff high with 10 points on 4-of-4 shooting in Game 5.

3. Golden State needs one more win to surpass last season’s franchise-record total of 83 (regular and postseason).

PREDICTION: Thunder 116, Warriors 110
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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2016 8:13 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Golden State Warriors (73-9) at Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27)

NBA: Saturday, May 28, 2016, at 9:00 p.m. ET

Line: Oklahoma City -2

Over/Under: 221

The Golden State Warriors travel to Chesapeake Energy Arena to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder for Game Six of the Western Conference Finals on Saturday night. Oklahoma City leads the series 3-2. On Thursday night, the Warriors topped the Thunder 120-111 to hold off elimination. Golden State used a 8-0 spurt to begin the fourth quarter to push their lead to 10 points and held on from there. The Warriors shot 47 percent from the field while holding the Warriors to 43 percent. A win for the Thunder would clinch them the series while a win for Golden State will shift the series to Oracle Arena for game seven.


Golden State struggled mightily in Oklahoma City and a big reason was the mediocre play of MVP Stephen Curry. Curry combined for 43 points on 5-of-21 from 3-point range in the two games. On Thursday night, things changed as he scored 31 points and seven rebounds and appeared to be back to his old form. Running mate Klay Thompson went for 27 points on 8-of-21 shooting. The Warriors connected on an impressive 31-of-34 from the free-throw stripe. Andrew Bogut was fantastic providing 15 points and 14 rebounds in 30 minutes. Draymond Green was impressive and energetic with 11 points and 13 rebounds.

The Thunder lost the contest but their two stars performed at a high level once again. Kevin Durant led the Thunder with 40 points and seven rebounds. The problem is that Durant shot 12-of-31 from the field. Russell Westbrook wound up with 31 points, eight assists, seven rebounds, and five steals. The Thunder committed 17 turnovers leading to 21 Warriors points. Serge Ibaka went for 13 points and eight rebounds in the loss. Dion Waiters (0-4 fg) struggled off the bench, going scoreless in 27 minutes. Oklahoma City had a total of just 13 bench points in the contest.

Trends:

The Golden State Warriors are:

1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are:

4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

The pick: Oklahoma City -2

The Thunder have a huge edge at home in this contest as shown earlier in the series. Oklahoma City won both games by a combined 52 points. Westbrook and Durant will lead the Thunder to the win and another trip to the NBA Finals.
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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2016 8:17 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | GOLDEN STATE at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games
23-5 since 1997. ( 82.1% | 17.5 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

NBA | GOLDEN STATE at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play On - Any team vs the money line (GOLDEN STATE) excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games
96-44 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.6% | 41.8 units )
56-29 this year. ( 65.9% | 18.0 units )

NBA | GOLDEN STATE at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play On - Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's)
77-38 since 1997. ( 67.0% | 35.2 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.8 units )
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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2016 8:20 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Western Conference Finals - Game 6 - TNT, 9:05 p.m. ET
Golden State at Oklahoma City - Thunder lead series 3-2

After getting walloped by a combined 52 points in two losses at Oklahoma City, the Warriors rebound on Thursday with a 120-11 win in Game 5 and kept their playoff hopes alive.

Golden State built a 58-50 lead at half before Oklahoma City trimmed that lead to four points (81-77) after three quarters. The Warriors came out strong in the fourth and led by as many as 13 points midway through the final stanza. The Thunder made a late run and cut the lead to six points and could’ve been down three if Kevin Durant connects on a 3-pointer in the final minute.

Unfortunately for OKC bettors grabbing the points (+7 ½) in Game 5, Durant’s shot missed and so did a pair of attempts from Nazr Mohammed and Dion Waiters. While those shots came up short, Golden State made 6-of-6 free throws down the stretch and earned the cover.

Sticking with free throws, Thunder head coach Billy Donovan felt his team was slighted on Thursday. He said, "The difference in the game to me was the fact they went to the free throw line 34 times."

As much as I like Donovan, I believe he’d take that quote back. Oklahoma City went to the line 24 times and while Golden State did have 10 more attempts, nine of them came in the final minute and one was given for Donovan getting a technical.

I guess he also forgot how Durant was gifted three freebies when his team was down 11 on Thursday and did Donovan complain when his team won the free throw battle (40-29, 37-25) in their home victories?

It’s easy to see where Donovan is coming from considering the winner of the first five games in this series also won the battle at the charity stripe. However, gauging how many free throws a team will take in basketball is comparable to handicapping penalties and turnovers in football, practically impossible.

The reason Oklahoma City lost in Game 5 is because they didn’t shoot well from the field (43%) and the Warriors bench had a plus-17 edge (30-13).

Golden State also won the rebound battle (52-50) and the role-player matchup with Andrew Bogut (15 points) and Marreese Speights (14) making Andre Roberson (6) and Steven Adams (8) of the Thunder forgettable. Plus backup big man Enes Kanter had his minutes (6) cut once again and OKC certainly could’ve used his size.

Durant led the Thunder with 41 points in the loss while Russell Westbrook had 31 points but both All-Stars shot less than 40 percent from the field and were a combined 6-of-19 from 3-point land.

Stephen Curry (31) and Klay Thompson (27) combined for 58 points despite making 5-of-17 (29%) of their shots from downtown. The pair made up for that effort by making 19-of-20 free throws.

For the first time in this series, Oklahoma City has been installed as favorite with the club laying two points at most betting shops for Game 6.

Based on what we’ve seen in this round of the playoffs, NBA expert Kevin Rogers believes Oklahoma City could be a look in the close-out game. He explained, “Home teams have been fantastic against the spread in the conference finals. They own a terrific 9-1 record ATS, including a 4-1 ATS mark in the Western Conference finals. “

The Warriors have only been listed as underdogs four times this season and they posted a 3-1 record both straight up and against the spread. The lone loss took place in mid-March when San Antonio stifled Golden State 87-79 as a 4 ½-point home favorite.

Rogers also noted strong postseason trends on the Warriors as underdogs, something they haven’t been familiar with recently. “Golden State hasn’t been listed as a playoff underdog since the opening round of the 2014 playoffs against the Clippers, as the Warriors covered in five of seven opportunities when getting points in that series,” said Rogers.

Not only has Golden State been a great bet as an underdog, it’s also shown the ability to win on the road in the playoffs. Since the Warriors made a return to the national scene in the 2013 playoffs, they’ve won at least one road game in nine straight playoff series. Since they have homecourt for Game 7, Saturday’s matchup will be their last chance to extend that streak.

Oklahoma City usually gives larger margins at Chesapeake Energy Arena and it’s rare to see them lay small spreads at home. As a short home favorite (5 points or less) this season, the Thunder went 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in these roles, losses coming to the Cavaliers (115-92) and Celtics (100-85) in the regular season. One of the three wins came in the postseason when Oklahoma City defeated San Antonio in the conference semifinals.

The Thunder are still listed as a favorite (-230) on the adjusted series price while Golden State is listed as a plus-195 underdog. Prior to Game 5, OKC was as high as a 1/3 favorite while the Warriors were close to 5/2 ‘dogs.

The ‘over’ (219 ½) connected in Game 5 and it was helped with a big fourth quarter (73 points). Despite that result going to the high side, the ‘under’ has gone 5-3 in the eight head-to-head meetings between the pair this season and that includes a 3-2 mark in this series.

Considering the winner of those eight games has averaged 119 points per game, you’d think the ‘over’ would do better but only two of those outcomes were by six point or less.

Oddsmakers opened Game 6’s total at 221 but some action on Friday evening pushed the number down to 220. Oklahoma City (111) and Golden State (109) have team totals for Game 6 in the same neighborhood and knowing that the winner in the first five games has posted big numbers, you could be better suited leaning to that wager on Saturday.

Another betting option for Game 6 that might strike your interest is the first half. In the first five games of this series, the home team has lead not only at the half but at the end of the first quarter as well.

Game 1 - 60-47 (27-21)
Game 2 - 57-49 (27-20)
Game 3 - 72-47 (34-28)
Game 4 - 72-53 (30-26)
Game 5 - 58-50 (25-21)

Along with the visitors struggling early on the road, total bettors can see that the scoreboard operator was working from the get-go in Oklahoma City and that production helped 'over' wagers in both Game 3 and 4.

Oklahoma City is currently laying 1 ½-points in the first-half of Game 6 while the total is 112.

Do you ride that streak or buck the trend?

Good luck either way!

If necessary, Game 7 will take place on Monday from Oracle Arena.
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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2016 8:26 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

GOLDEN STATE (83 - 14) at OKLAHOMA CITY (66 - 32) - 5/28/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 158-114 ATS (+32.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 53-41 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 42-34 ATS (+4.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 60-43 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 42-29 ATS (+10.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 68-48 ATS (+15.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-36 ATS (-12.6 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 29-40 ATS (-15.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-7 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 9-6 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PostPosted: Sat May 28, 2016 8:32 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Warriors @ Thunder GAME SIX Over / Under
> Since 2008, all NBA Playoff games with a closing (tipoff) line of GREATER than (>) 220 points (Warriors @ Thunder) have gone a PERFECT 0-8 O/U...
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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2016 1:33 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Oklahoma City Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Golden State Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Head to Head Thunder are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Golden State.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Golden State.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.


The Golden State Warriors turned to their stars down the stretch in Game 6, and Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry delivered a Game 7. The Warriors will have the chance to close out the Western Conference finals and advance to the NBA Finals for the second straight year when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7 on Monday.

Golden State looked beaten and broken after getting crushed in Games 3 and 4 to fall into a 3-1 hole in the series, but a tough win at home in Game 5 coupled with a transcendent performance from Thompson in Game 6 knotted it back at three wins apiece. “We played for each other,” Thompson told reporters after burying an NBA playoff-record 11 3-pointers in the 108-101 win. “… It was just so much fun to play with the fire and emotion we did for the whole 48 minutes.” The Thunder held a seven-point lead with five minutes left on Sunday but were outscored 19-5 the rest of the way and committed six turnovers in that span. “I felt like we didn’t do a great job coming down the stretch,” Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan told reporters. “We got a little stagnant coming down the stretch. Defensively, we were a little bit late, but they made some tough shots and made some plays.”


ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City already has one win at Golden State under its belt in the series and believes it can overcome the devastation of dropping Game 6 at home. “We know exactly what they do, they know exactly what we do,” Kevin Durant told. “It’s just a matter of who wants it more. Both teams went out there and played extremely hard (in Game 6). They made more shots than we did, especially from the three. That’s the name of the game.” Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for 57 points but went 1-of-13 from 3-point range in the loss and 3-of-14 from the field in the fourth quarter.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State outscored the Thunder 63-9 from 3-point range led by Thompson, who buried a flat-footed 3-pointer from over 28 feet away at the top of the key and nailed another in transition to provide the go-ahead bucket in the late-game surge. "Obviously, Klay Thompson was ridiculous," Golden State coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "The shooting was some of the most incredible shooting you'll ever see." Curry added 29 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists and found his shot late with a pair of 3-pointers and a runner on the right side of the lane that sealed it in the final seconds.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Thompson’s 41 points were a playoff career high and the most scored by a Warriors player this postseason.

2. Oklahoma City G Andre Roberson went 5-of-5 from the field in Game 6 and is shooting 61.5 percent from the field.

3. Golden State F Draymond Green has recorded back-to-back double-doubles.

PREDICTION: Warriors 112, Thunder 103



* Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
* Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Golden State.
* Thunder are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Golden State.
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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2016 8:25 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27) at Golden State Warriors (73-9)

NBA: Monday, May 30, 2016, at 9:00 p.m. ET

Line: Golden State -7

Over/Under: 219

The Oklahoma City had their chance to pull off an upset and advance to the NBA Finals on Saturday night in Game Six. Unfortunately the Thunder collapsed late in the fourth quarter and they lost 108-101. It appeared the Thunder were on their way to the NBA Finals when they held a seven-point lead with five minutes. But the Warriors closed the game on a 19-5 run and as a result they will go back home for Game Seven.


The Thunder have two superstars in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Unfortunately for the Thunder, Durant didn’t play like one on Saturday night at home. The 27-year-old All-Star led the Thunder with 29 points and seven rebounds but finished just 10-of-31 from the field and committed a few turnovers down the stretch of the game. Westbrook had another quality all-around game with 28 points, 11 assists, and nine rebounds. Oklahoma City defended well forcing the Warriors to shoot 41 percent. The problem is that the Thunder only shot 42 percent and the Warriors couldn’t stop Klay Thompson from beyond the arc. Serge Ibaka chipped in with 13 points and nine rebounds in the loss. Andre Roberson had 11 points and eight rebounds despite battling foul trouble most of the night.


If it wasn’t for Klay Thompson’s legendary performance, the Warriors would be sitting at home right now. Thompson was brilliant in Game 6 with 41 points on 11-of-18 from 3-point range. The 11 threes were an NBA playoff-record. Stephen Curry came on strong with 31 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists in the win. It was a terrific performance considering that Curry had 43 points on 5-of-21 from deep in Games Three and Four at Oklahoma City. Golden State shot 21-of-44 from 3-point range. Strangely enough, the Warriors only made 15-of-43 shots from inside the three-point line. Draymond Green had another energetic all-around performance with 12 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists.

Trends:

The Oklahoma City Thunder are:

6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
8-2 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.
6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.

The Golden State Warriors are:

1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.

The pick: Oklahoma City +7

It’s easy to see why one would believe that the Warriors can pull away and beat the Thunder. I don’t think Durant will continue to disappoint. The Warriors will come out on top but they won’t cover the spread in what should be another epic battle.
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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2016 11:06 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

NBA Playoffs - Game 7 Facts

Game 7 Quick Facts

-- The NBA has had 124 Game 7’s in playoff history

-- The home team is 100-24 (80%) in those games

-- This year's NBA playoffs have had three Game 7's thus far and the home team has won all three games, two of thie victories coming by double digits.

Eastern Conference First Round - Miami 106 vs. Charlotte 73
Eastern Conference First Round - Toronto 89 vs. Indiana 84
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Toronto 116 vs. Miami 89

-- The 2015 postseason featured two Game 7's. The home team went 2-0 with the Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets capturing victories.

-- The 2014 postseason featured five Game 7's. The home team went 4-1 in those games and the lone visitor to win was Brooklyn, who defeated Toronto 104-103 in overtime.

Oklahoma City Game 7 Recent History
2011 Western Conference Semifinals
Oklahoma City 105 vs. Memphis 90

2014 Western Conference First Round
Oklahoma City 120 vs. Memphis 109

Golden State Game 7 Recent History
2014 Western Conference First Round
Golden State 121 at L.A. Clippers 126


All-Time Game 7 Road Winners

Year Road Team Home Team Round

2014 Brooklyn 104 Toronto 103 First round
2013 Chicago 99 Brooklyn 93 First round
2012 L.A. Clippers 82 Memphis 72 First round
2009 Orlando 101 Boston 82 Conference semifinals
2007 San Antonio 91 New Orleans 82 Conference semifinals
2007 Utah 103 Houston 99 First round
2006 *Dallas 119 San Antonio 111 Conference semifinals
2005 Detroit 88 Miami 82 Conference finals
2005 Indiana 97 Boston 70 First round
2002 *L.A. Lakers 112 Sacramento 106 Conference finals
2000 New York 83 Miami 82 Conference semifinals
1995 Indiana 97 New York 95 Conference semifinals
1995 Houston 115 Phoenix 114 Conference semifinals
1982 Philadelphia 120 Boston 106 Conference finals
1981 Kansas City 95 Phoenix 88 Conference semifinals
1981 Houston 105 San Antonio 100 Conference semifinals
1978 Washington 105 Seattle 99 NBA Finals
1976 Phoenix 94 Golden State 86 Conference finals
1974 Boston 102 Milwaukee 87 NBA Finals
1973 New York 94 Boston 78 Conference finals
1971 Baltimore 93 New York 91 Conference finals
1969 Boston 108 L.A. Lakers 106 NBA Finals
1968 Boston 100 Philadelphia 96 Division finals
1948 Philadelphia 85 St Louis 46 Semifinals
(*) Asterisk denotes overtime
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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2016 11:07 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

The NBA was granted one of its wishes with LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers making the Finals for a second straight season. The second wish came true when the Warriors extended the Western Conference Finals to a pivotal Game 7 against the Thunder, setting up for an epic finale of this series at Oracle Arena.

Oklahoma City seemed in control of the conference finals less than a week ago when Billy Donovan’s squad held a 3-1 advantage over the defending champions. The Warriors pulled away from the Thunder in Game 5 at Oracle Arena, 120-111 to cash as seven-point favorites and improve to 13-1 off a loss this season. Golden State rallied past Oklahoma City in Game 6 at Chesapeake Energy Arena to even up the Western Conference Finals at 3-3 as the Warriors turned to the “Splash Brothers” to save their season.

The Warriors erased a 13-point deficit in Saturday’s 108-101 triumph as three-point road underdogs thanks to outscoring the Thunder, 33-18 in the fourth quarter. Klay Thompson drilled a playoff-record 11 treys and scored 41 points as Golden State extended its streak to 10 consecutive postseason series with at least one road victory. Stephen Curry heated up in the second half to contribute 31 points as the Warriors’ dynamic duo combined to hit 17-of-32 shots from downtown. Golden State connected on 21-of-45 attempts from three-point range, even though only three Warriors scored in double-figures (Draymond Green scored 12 points).

Obviously Oklahoma City has to feel like this series has slipped through its fingers following the Game 6 meltdown, as the Thunder managed to hit on only 3-of-23 shots from long distance. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined to go 1-of-13 from three-point range, but the two Thunder stars put up 57 of Oklahoma City’s 101 points. Durant missed 21 shots from the floor following his 40-point effort in Game 5, while attempting 31 shots in each of the last two games (22-of-62). The Thunder didn’t get much help from its bench in Game 6, receiving 11 points as the only player to log more than 10 minutes was Dion Waiters, who scored just three points in 36 minutes.

Nine teams in NBA postseason history have erased a 3-1 series deficit to capture a series victory with the Rockets being the last to do so in the 2015 conference semifinals against the Clippers. The last time a team squandered a 3-1 series advantage but ended up winning Game 7 was the Bulls over the Nets in the 2013 opening round, as Chicago won outright as 7 ½-point road underdogs, 99-93.

Home clubs have fared well in the history of Game 7, owning a 100-24 record (80%) since 1948. In the past four postseasons, home teams have compiled an 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS mark in Game 7’s, including a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS mark in the 2016 playoffs. Steve Kerr hasn’t coached in a Game 7 of the playoffs in his short career as head coach of the Warriors, as the last Game 7 that Golden State played in came in the 2014 opening round. The Warriors fell to the Clippers, 126-121, but covered as seven-point underdogs.

NBA expert Chris David provides his thoughts for Monday’s decisive contest, “If you’re handicapping this matchup based on Game 7 history and seasonal trends, it’s hard to go against Golden State. Including the playoffs, Oklahoma City has been a road underdog 16 times this season and it’s gone 4-12 in those games. They did manage to play competitive in three of the losses, which helped them go 7-9 against the spread. Golden State rarely lays less than a touchdown (-7) at home and when it does, it wins. The Warriors have gone 8-1 (89%) in these spots with the lone loss coming to the Thunder in Game 1 of this series. Golden State has covered five of those victories, three coming by double digits.”

Will the public jump off the OKC bandwagon following Saturday’s meltdown? “Those angles could easily have you leaning to the Warriors but if you bet on a regular basis, it’s never that easy and we saw what happened on Saturday with many so-called pundits penciling the Thunder into the NBA Finals already. While I don’t like to back teams off bad losses and it was ugly, I believe the value is with Oklahoma City in this spot and the line is inflated by a couple points. The Thunder have gone 5-3 on the road in the playoffs and Billy Donovan’s team has played well when facing adversity. During the regular season, the team went 7-1 off back-to-back losses and the lone three-game losing streak occurred back in early November,” David says.

After seeing totals range between 219 ½ and 225 in the first six games of this series, oddsmakers sent out an opener of 219 for Game 7 and some savvy bettors knocked it down to 218. “I agree with the early move and history tells us that it’s rare to see both teams eclipse 100-plus points in decisive matchups. While both clubs certainly have the ability to light up the scoreboard, I don’t see the pace being fast and expect possessions to be played at a premium. In Oklahoma City’s four wins as road underdogs this season, it allowed 102, 91, 97 and 89 points. The ‘under’ cashed easily in all four of those wins and went 11-5 overall when the Thunder were catching points on the road. Since I’m buying Oklahoma City with the points, I’ll also lean to the team total ‘under’ for Golden State (112 ½) and buy the game ‘under’ (218) as well,” David notes.

For the first time in the conference finals, we’ve seen home teams lose consecutive games following a 9-1 start by the four squads that played in this round. Cleveland knocked out Toronto in Game 6 on Friday night at Air Canada Center, followed by Golden State’s comeback victory over Oklahoma City on Saturday. Five of the last six close-out wins for the Warriors in the playoffs have come by nine points or more with the lowest margin of victory being four points in the second round against Portland.

In Saturday’s Game 6 preview written by David, he noted how impressive the home team has been in this series in the first quarter and first half. Those angles continued on Saturday as Oklahoma City led after the first 12 and 24 minutes.

Game 1 - 58-50 (27-21)
Game 2 - 72-53 (27-20)
Game 3 - 72-47 (34-28)
Game 4 - 57-49 (30-26)
Game 5 - 60-47 (25-21)
Game 6 – 53-48 (23-20)

Golden State is favored by 2 ½ points in the first quarter, while the Warriors are laying 4 ½ points in the first half. For the game, the Warriors are seven-point ‘chalk,’ as the total is sitting at 218. The contest tips off at 9:00 p.m. EST from Oracle Arena and can be seen on TNT.
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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2016 11:13 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at GOLDEN STATE
Play Against - Home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games
55-27 since 1997. ( 67.1% | 25.3 units )
5-6 this year. ( 45.5% | -1.6 units )

NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at GOLDEN STATE
Play Against - Favorites vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games
37-33 since 1997. ( 52.9% | 28.9 units )
5-10 this year. ( 33.3% | 0.4 units )

NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at GOLDEN STATE
Play Under - Any team vs. the 1rst half line in a playoff series which is tied, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
217-137 since 1997. ( 61.3% | 66.3 units )
6-5 this year. ( 54.5% | 0.5 units )
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PostPosted: Mon May 30, 2016 11:20 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

NBA Playoff GAME SEVEN home teams are 51-13 SU / 38-24-2 ATS (61%) since 1992... including 13-6 ATS (68%) when favored by > 6 pts (Gold St).
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 8:03 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

> THIS season in the NBA, Western Conference home favorites of -4 > points (Warriors) went only 41-56-1 ATS (38%) against Eastern Conference opponents (Cavaliers). Also, .600 > Western Conference home teams went only 5-11 ATS (31%) versus .600 > Eastern Conference opponents.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2016 2:55 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Thanks POI
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2016 4:53 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Cleveland Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 Thursday games.
Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.
Cavaliers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Golden State Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games playing on 2 days rest.
Warriors are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
Head to Head Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Golden State.
Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings.


The Golden State Warriors don't think their record 73-win season will feel complete unless they win the NBA title and the Cleveland Cavaliers are once again standing in their way. The Warriors attempt to knock off Cleveland in the NBA Finals for the second straight campaign when the best-of-seven series gets underway Thursday in Oakland, Calif.

Two-time MVP Stephen Curry is no longer bothered by the knee injury that interrupted his playoff experience and is purely focused on making sure the Warriors win the rematch of the series decided in six games last season. "I know we're a better team than we were last year, just off experience and what we've been through in this postseason," Curry told reporters on Wednesday. "(We're) better equipped to kind of handle the scene of The Finals and all that's kind of thrown at you when you get here." Cleveland forward LeBron James says his team is better positioned to win the rematch and he was definitely testy when told the Warriors are heavy favorites. "Not my concern," James told reporters. "I don't get involved in all of that -- underdog, overdog, whatever the case may be. It's stupidity.


ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: James is playing in his seventh NBA Finals and has only emerged as a winner twice -- both times with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh as teammates on the Miami Heat. Cleveland was without power forward Kevin Love (shoulder) for all of last season's championship series, lost point guard Kyrie Irving (kneecap) in the opener and has Tryonn Lue as head coach after the midseason firing of David Blatt. "It's a big thing, and I just think that we have a different team than we had last year," Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue said at his Wednesday press conference. "Organization-wise, it's the same two teams, but playing-wise and players-wise, we're a different team. Kevin and Kyrie are both healthy, the addition of (backup forward) Channing Frye, we're a completely different team than we were last year."

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Curry scored 36 points in Game 7 as Golden State finished off its comeback from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference finals and he and shooting guard Klay Thompson combined for 62 3-point baskets in the series - 32 by Curry; 30 by Thompson. Coach Steve Kerr expects Curry's competitive nature to be in high form as former NBA players and James - who questioned how valuable Curry is after the MVP tally - continue to hurl slights in his direction. "He doesn't have to say anything," Kerr said at his Wednesday press conference. "He does his talking through his play, basically, but he definitely is motivated by things that people say about him or things that he reads or anything like that. The guy is as gifted and skilled as he is, and I think one of his greatest attributes is his competitive fire."

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The Warriors won the two regular-season meetings -- both coming before Blatt was fired as Cavaliers' coach.

2. Irving is averaging 24.3 points and has topped 20 points in 12 of Cleveland's 14 postseason games.

3. Golden State may opt to start veteran SF Andre Iguodala over younger SF Harrison Barnes in the opener just as it did in Game 7 of the Thunder series.

PREDICTION: Cavaliers 103, Warriors 97
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2016 5:59 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Let's go Golden State !!!
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2016 11:21 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

CLEVELAND (69 - 27) at GOLDEN STATE (85 - 14) - 6/2/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 55-41 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 44-34 ATS (+6.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 51-40 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 60-40 ATS (+16.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 38-25 ATS (+10.5 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 61-47 ATS (+9.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 62-43 ATS (+14.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 44-29 ATS (+12.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 30-21 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 6-6 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 8-4 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2016 11:22 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

CLEVELAND vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games at home
Golden State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home


Cleveland at Golden State, 9:00 ET
Cleveland: 3-12 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more
Golden State: 31-15 ATS after 1 or more consecutive under
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2016 11:24 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play On - Road underdogs (CLEVELAND) revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a home win
45-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.4% | 25.2 units )
4-5 this year. ( 44.4% | -1.5 units )

NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play On - Any team vs the money line (CLEVELAND) in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (>=36.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making >=50% of their shots
29-12 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.7% | 21.1 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 2.0 units )

NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 100 average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after scoring 105 points or more
53-23 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.7% | 27.7 units )
12-9 this year. ( 57.1% | 2.1 units )
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2016 11:29 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

> THIS season in the NBA, Western Conference home favorites of -4 > points (Warriors) went only 41-56-1 ATS (38%) against Eastern Conference opponents (Cavaliers). Also, .600 > Western Conference home teams went only 5-11 ATS (31%) versus .600 > Eastern Conference opponents.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2016 11:34 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25) at Golden State Warriors (73-9)

NBA: Thursday, June 2, 2016, at 9:00 p.m. ET

Line: Golden State -5.5

Over/Under: 210

The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Oracle Arena to take on the Golden State for game one of the NBA Finals. It is a rematch of last year’s NBA Finals when the Warriors beat the Cavaliers 4-2. The difference is that LeBron James will have teammates Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving healthy. Last season, the Cavaliers took a surprising 2-1 lead in the series before Golden State won three straight games. This series features the best team in their respective conferences. Both teams have used the 3-point shot to their advantage. Cleveland is shooting 43 percent from 3-point range while the Warriors are 40 percent from downtown. In the regular season, the Warriors won both meetings by six points and 34 points.


The Cleveland Cavaliers haven’t played since they beat the Toronto Raptors 113-87 in Game Six on Friday night. Cleveland has relied on their shut down defense and three-point shooting throughout the playoffs. The Cavaliers are 12-2 in the playoffs and they’ve held the opposition to under 100 points in 11 of those games. James leads the way with averages of 24.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, and seven assists in the playoffs. Irving has been sensational averaging 24.3 points and 5.1 assists per game. Irving (46%), Love (45%), J.R. Smith (46%), and Channing Frye (58%) have been lights out from downtown. It will be interesting to see if players like Love and Frye can knock the shots down in a more uptempo game that the Warriors play. Cleveland’s previous opponents play at a much slower pace than the Warriors so they must be ready to run.


The dynamic duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson led the Warriors to three straight wins in the Western Conference Finals against Oklahoma City. Curry averaged 27.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.9 assists. Thompson averaged 24.7 points and 4.4 rebounds. The duo averaged a combined nine threes per game in the series against the Thunder. Golden State came out on top despite the struggles of Draymond Green. Green averaged 11.3 points and 8.9 rebounds. The 26-year-old only shot 35 percent from the field and 21 percent from deep. If Golden State wants to repeat as champs, Green must perform at a high level that he’s capable of playing at.

Trends:

The Cleveland Cavaliers are:

6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Pacific.
7-2 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.
16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

The Golden State Warriors are:

2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central.
1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.



The pick: Cleveland +5.5

Cleveland probably won’t win Game One despite many believing it’s a trap due to the rest Cleveland got. I expect James and Irving to keep the Cavaliers in the game but Curry and Thompson will come out on top by a slender margin but not covering the game.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 1:28 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Golden State !

Thanks for posting POI Hat tip
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 4:15 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Cleveland Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.
Golden State Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NBA Championship games.
Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.




TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: LeBron James went for 23 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists in Game 1 but committed four turnovers and was honest in his assessment of the team’s performance. "When you're outscored 45-10 in bench points and give up 25 points off turnovers, you're not winning that game," James told reporters. The Cavaliers are averaging 13.9 made 3-pointers in the playoffs – tops in the NBA – but went 7-of-21 from beyond the arc in Game 1 as Channing Frye (0-of-1 in seven minutes off the bench) and J.R. Smith (1-of-3 in 36 minutes) struggled to get into the flow on offense.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State held the Cavaliers to 38.1 percent from the field and only turned the ball over nine times in Game 1, with just one of those turnovers coming from the reserves. Iguodala, Livingston and Barbosa combined to shoot 18-of-24 from the field to pick up the slack for their star teammates, who appreciated the effort. “Regardless of how the night’s going shooting for me or Klay, we definitely get a boost when our bench guys come in and change the game,” Curry told reporters. “We rely on that pretty much every night, whether it’s 45 points off the bench or just playing aggressive and continuing what we start.”

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The Warriors have won six straight games against the Cavaliers dating back to last season’s Finals.

2. Golden State F Draymond Green recorded 16 points and 11 rebounds in Game 1 for his third double-double in the last four games.

3. Cleveland took Games 2 and 3 in the Finals last year after dropping Game 1.

PREDICTION: Warriors 109, Cavaliers 101
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 4:52 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

The three golden rules for betting totals during the NBA Finals
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

The 2016 NBA Finals featuring the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers commences Thursday night in Oakland at Oracle Arena under the assumption that this matchup will produce some of the most outrageous television and radio ratings the sport has ever enjoyed.

That’s all fine and dandy for the networks and frequencies set to rake in massive profits from this star-studded affair, but our concern lies with how we can generate some additional revenue from the Steph Curry-LeBron James showdown.

As it pertains to the over/under, there are three rules you need to understand before attacking the 2016 NBA Finals.

RULE 1: Know your NBA officials

This rule applies to each of the four major professional sports leagues in North America, but today we’re focusing solely on the Association. I can’t express enough how imperative it is to identify both the officials working each respective game as well as the tendencies demonstrated by those officials throughout the course of the 2015-2016 NBA season.

Here’s a rundown of the 12 officials scheduled to work the 2016 NBA Finals, with their O/U records for the 2015-2016 NBA season:

Tony Brothers: 33-37
Mike Callahan: 35-40
James Capers: 35-31
Danny Crawford: 31-40
Marc Davis: 40-37
Scott Foster: 38-34
Ed Malloy: 28-35
Ken Mauer: 45-27
Monty McCutchen: 35-41
Jason Phillips: 32-40
Derrick Stafford: 30-37
Zach Zarba: 45-30

You’ll notice that the NBA is trotting out a pretty balanced group here in terms of 2015-2016 NBA totals, with seven of the 12 officials generally siding toward the under while the other five lean to the over.


RULE 2: Know your teams

What good is an understanding of the tendencies of each NBA official if we don’t additionally study the tendencies of each NBA team playing for the title?

*Note: The OVER is listed first in each of the below records.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Regular season: 45-36-1 overall, 22-18-1 at home, 23-18 on the road
Playoffs: 7-10 overall, 4-6 at home, 3-4 on the road
Trends: The UNDER is 3-1 in Golden State’s last four playoff games and 5-2 in Golden State’s last seven playoff games. In addition, the UNDER is 4-0 in Golden State’s last four games when playing on two days of rest.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

Regular season: 41-41 overall, 22-19 at home, 19-22 on the road
Playoffs: 7-7 overall, 3-4 at home, 4-3 on the road
Trends: The UNDER has hit in three of Cleveland’s last five playoff games. In addition, the UNDER is 6-2 in Cleveland’s last eight games when playing on three or more days of rest.

HEAD TO HEAD THIS SEASON

12/25/15: Golden State 89 vs. Cleveland 83 (UNDER 207)
1/18/16: Golden State 132 at Cleveland 98 (OVER 210)

PACE

*Pace is defined as the number of possessions a team uses per game. More possessions lead to more shots, more shots lead to more points. It’s as simple as that.

Golden State: 101.6 (second in NBA)
Cleveland: 95.5 (28th in NBA)


RULE 3: Know your history

As the old adage goes, “Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”

Yes, the game of professional basketball has changed over the last ten years and yes, there’s probably very little the 2009 NBA Finals between the Lakers and the Magic can teach us as it pertains to this year’s showdown between the Warriors and the Cavaliers. But a detailed and thorough historical analysis sometimes has a way of unearthing trends and patterns that can be useful in our efforts to gain an edge over the bookmakers.

You’ll notice below that we’ve compiled a detailed analysis of the last ten NBA Finals in regards to overs and unders. Here’s a quick breakdown of how to interpret the following data:

Record: O/U record for the Finals, with the over listed first
AT: The average O/U for the Finals
AS: The average total score for the Finals
HT: The highest O/U for the Finals
LT: The lowest O/U for the Finals

Warriors/Cavaliers (2015): 2-3-1, 197 AT vs. 194.2 AS, HT: 203.5, LT: 193.5
Spurs/Heat (2014): 2-3, 197 AT vs. 197.2 AS, HT: 198.5, LT: 195
Heat/Spurs (2013): 4-3, 189 AT vs. 194.7 AS, HT: 192, LT: 186
Heat/Thunder (2012): 3-1-1, 194 AT vs. 200.0 AS, HT: 196, LT: 195
Mavericks/Heat (2011): 2-3-1, 187 AT vs. 187.0 AS, HT: 188.5, LT: 184.5
Lakers/Celtics (2010): 1-5-1, 190 AT vs. 177.7 AS, HT: 192.5, LT: 186
Lakers/Magic (2009): 1-4, 201 AT vs. 191.8 AS, HT: 205.5, LT: 198
Celtics/Lakers (2008): 3-3, 192 AT vs. 196.0 AS, HT: 195.5, LT: 191.5
Spurs/Cavaliers (2007): 1-3, 178 AT vs. 167.0 AS, HT: 179.5, LT: 175.5
Heat/Mavericks (2006): 2-4, 189 AT vs. 184.6 AS, HT: 194, LT: 187

The first item worth noting here is that over the 57 total games played during the last ten NBA Finals, the under has gone 32-21-4, which is good for a winning percentage of 60.3 percent. Additionally, take note that if you would have blindly bet the under in every single NBA Finals matchup over the last ten years, you would have turned a profit in seven of those ten seasons. Not a bad way to close out a professional basketball season, right?

Notice anything else? Here’s a hint: This Golden State-Cleveland matchup has us in unchartered waters. Of the 57 NBA Finals games played over the last ten seasons, not one has featured a total higher than 205.5. Why is that significant? Well, Thursday night’s Game 1 at Oracle Arena opened with a total of 209 and is currently sitting at 209.5. Additionally, you’ll have to go back to March 30 in Utah (25 games) to find the last time the Warriors took the court with a closing total of less than 205.5 points.

Know your officials, know your teams, know your history. And with that, you are now properly equipped to attack the 2016 NBA Finals from a totals perspective.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 4:56 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors June 5, 8:00 EST

Cavaliers strategy was pretty clear in game-one, let anyone but Steph Curry (11 pts), Klay Thompson (9 pts) beat you. However, it backfired as Golden State’s supporting cast lead by Shaun Livingston scoring a personal postseason best 20 points off the bench took the opener 104-89. Warriors have now beaten Caves six straight times (5-1 ATS) since last June and have improved to 10-1 at Oracle Arena in these playoffs with a 9-2 mark against the betting line. The Warriors are currently 6.5 point favorites.

A Cleveland backer ? Here’s one reason to feel confident about Cavaliers chances. James' teams are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in NBA Finals after losing game-one including a 95-93 overtime win as 7.5 point underdogs in Oakland last year.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 4:57 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

NBA

Cleveland-Golden State (GSt 1-0)
Warriors won last six games with Cleveland, beating Cavaliers in six games in LY's Finals; Curry/Thompson combined to score 20 points in Game 1, their lowest total of season, and they still won easily. Golden State has had time to rest now; they're 10-1, 9-2 vs spread at home in playoffs. Cleveland is 12-3 in playoffs, losing three of last four road games. Guards on Cleveland aren't as long, athletic as Thunder's, a problem against Curry-Thompson, when they get warmed up again. Warriors' bench was +55 in Game 1. JR Smith played 18:00 before he took his first shot in last game- they obviously need a lot more from him

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1
Final: Favorites: 1-0, Over: 0-1
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:40 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, on Sunday games
83-42 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 36.8 units )
9-8 this year. ( 52.9% | 0.2 units )

NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, on Sunday games
131-69 since 1997. ( 65.5% | 46.2 units )
3-6 this year. ( 33.3% | -2.5 units )

NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105.5 an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games
200-119 since 1997. ( 62.7% | 69.1 units )
13-4 this year. ( 76.5% | 8.6 units )
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:46 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors, 6/5/16-Expert Prediction

Game Snapshot
(NBA Playoffs) Cleveland Cavaliersvs.Golden State Warriors

Sunday, June 5, 2016at 8:00pm EDT

Spread: Golden State -6.5; Total: 207.5
TagsCleveland Cavaliers, Game 2, Golden State Warriors, Kevin Love, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, NBA Finals, NBA Picks, Stephen Curry

Written by Chuck Dowling on June 3, 2016 in NBA
June 2, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Kyrie Irving (2) is defended by Golden State Warriors forward Andre Iguodala (9) during the second half in game one of the NBA Finals at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Featured photo by Bob Donnan, from USA TODAY Sports

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Cleveland Cavaliers 69-28 (46-48 ATS) at Golden State Warriors 86-14 (57-41 ATS)

When and Where: Sunday, June 5, ORACLE Arena, Oakland, Calif. 8:00pm EDT (ABC)

After taking out the Cavaliers in six games in last year’s NBA Finals, the Warriors got off towards a great start in the 2016 edition. Last year the first two games both went to overtime. The Warriors did not need an extra period to take care of business in Game 1 this time around. Golden State survived a second half run by Cleveland before cruising to a 104-89 victory. With the win, the Warriors take a 1-0 lead in the best-of-seven series. Game 2 is slated for Sunday night in Oakland at 5 p.m. local time.


Despite the Game 1 setback, there are those that feel that Cleveland is still in a better position than they were a year ago. And why should they not? Last season they entered the finals without Kevin Love, and only had Kyrie Irving for Game 1. The Cavs’ “Big Three”are all healthy for this year’s finals. They entered this game with the best record in the NBA postseason at 12-2 but fell behind early. The squad was down four after one quarter of play, and nine at the break. In the third quarter the team battled back and even took a one point lead before ultimately succumbing to a 21-4 Golden State run. The team showed some fight in the fourth quarter with a 9-0 run of their own, but it was too little too late. King James was only 9-of-21 from the field and scored 23 points in defeat. Irving led the squad with 26 points, and Love led all players in rebounds with 13 boards. The problem was the bench, which was outscored 45-10 by the Warrior’s reserves. The Cavaliers also lost the turnover battle, 15-9, and were outscored in the paint 54-42.


The bad news for Golden State on Thursday night was that the team’s top duo did not show up. The good news was, that the rest of the team did. The “Splash Brothers” combined for just 20 points on 27 shots. NBA MVP Stephen Curry had just 11 points on 4-of-15 shooting, while Klay Thompson was 4-of-12 from the floor, good enough for nine points. Shaun Livingston, who started in place of Curry when the star guard was injured earlier this postseason, led the team with 20 points, as many as Thompson and Curry combined. Leandro Barbosa also came off the bench with a solid performance, going 5-5 from the field and scoring 11 points in 11 minutes. Reigning Finals MVP Andre Iguodala scored 12 points, pulled down seven boards and had six assists with no turnover. He also played lockdown defense on LeBron James.

Trends:

Cleveland is:

5-11 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 2 days rest
3-7 ATS in their last 10 NBA Championship games

Golden State is:

5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600
10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games
4-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games

Pick: Golden State -6.5

If the Warriors can win by 15 points when their superstars do not show up, imagine how they can play when they do. No way will the “Splash Brothers” have another off night on the world’s biggest stage. Expect Curry and Thompson to lead the way this time around as Golden State rolls to another comfortable victory in Game 2.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 06, 2016 7:21 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:37 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Golden State Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 overall.
Under is 6-0 in Warriors last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
Cleveland Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Head to Head Warriors are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings.
Warriors are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Cleveland.



The Golden State Warriors won the first two games of the NBA Finals by an average of 24 points, leaving the host Cleveland Cavaliers facing a dire situation entering Wednesday's Game 3. Not only has Cleveland been annihilated in the first two contests but power forward Kevin Love is listed as questionable due to a concussion suffered during Sunday's 110-77 loss.

Love's availability will be decided on Wednesday but what is more certain is that the Cavaliers - including forward LeBron James - need to step up their play after their embarrassing showing on Sunday. "We're still here and we have a chance to turn this series around if we come in and do what we need to do both offensively and defensively," James told reporters. "Internally, we have to figure out how we can be better. We have to figure out how we can help one another. We definitely have to figure out how we can get more guys involved." One more victory will allow the Warriors to supplant the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (87 wins) for the most overall wins in a season but point guard Stephen Curry made it clear his team isn't about to relax with a 2-0 series lead. "There's no point in celebrating or jumping up and down and saying, 'Look at us,'" Curry told reporters. "We're two games away from winning a championship. We still have to go out and get the job done. It's a trap to think that we've figured things out and that we have the perfect formula to beat Cleveland and they have no chance in the series."


ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Do-it-all forward Draymond Green added knockdown 3-point shooter to his resume in Game 2 as he made five 3-pointers while contributing 28 points, seven rebounds and five assists and playing his typical sturdy defense. "The way they're guarding us, Draymond's open a lot," Golden State coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "So he becomes our safety valve when there's pressure. He becomes an open shooter when they're jumping out at Steph or Klay (Thompson), so it's a good situation for him." Curry and Thompson each made four 3-pointers in Game 2 but neither player has produced a high-scoring game with Curry averaging 14.5 points and Thompson just 13.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: Love didn't practice on Tuesday and must clear the concussion protocol before he can play but James' comments made it sound like Cleveland already knows Love is unlikely to be on the floor. "It's going to be the next man up. We're down 0-2, and we can't afford to look and say, 'Wow, Kev's not playing. What are we going to do?'" James told reporters after practice. "It's next man up, because it's a must-win for us. So obviously his health is very important, but in the situation we're in now, we've got to stay confident. And whoever Coach decides to give the nod to has got to be ready to go, and everybody else has to step up." If Love sits out, veteran shooter Channing Frye will likely play a larger role and little-used Timofey Mozgov will be a bigger part of the rotation.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The Warriors have won the last seven meetings -- including the last three of the 2015 NBA Finals and two regular-season meetings before the wins in this series.

2. Cleveland SG J.R. Smith is averaging just four points in the series, while backup SG Iman Shumpert is averaging three points.

3. Green is averaging 22 points through two games after contributing just 11.3 per contest in the seven-game Western Conference finals against Oklahoma City.

PREDICTION: Warriors 112, Cavaliers 105
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 8:22 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Golden State Warriors (73-9) at Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25)

NBA: Wednesday, June 8, 2016, at 9:00 p.m. ET

Line: Cleveland -1

Over/Under: 206.5

The Golden State Warriors travel to Quicken Loans Arena to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers for Game Three of the NBA Finals. On Sunday night, the Warriors topped the Cavaliers 110-77 to win Game 2. Golden State took a commanding 2-0 lead in the series after the victory. The Warriors shot 54 percent from the field while holding the Cavaliers to just 35 percent from the field. A Warriors’ win will likely give them the series, while a Cavaliers win would give them hope to come back.


When the Warriors topped the Cavaliers in Game One without much offense from the Splash Brothers, many people were surprised. It was Shaun Livingston, Leonardo Barbosa, and Draymond Green that led the charge. On Sunday night, it was Green who stepped up again to lead the Warriors. Green had a sterling performance with 28 points, seven rebounds, and five assists. The 26-year-old forward didn’t even play a minute in the fourth quarter. Stephen Curry finished with 18 points and Klay Thompson chipped in with 17 points. Golden State shot an outstanding 15-of-33 from 3-point range. If there was an issue on Sunday night for Golden State, it wast turnover column as they turned it over 21 times.


Forward Kevin Love experienced dizziness after suffering a head injury early in the first half and he didn’t return in the contest. Love finished with five points and three rebounds in 21 minutes. LeBron James wound up with 19 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds. James also committed seven turnovers. Cleveland shot only 5-of-23 from 3-point range and committed 18 turnovers. Kyrie Irving produced for only 10 points on 5-of-14 from the field. If Cleveland wants to have a shot at winning the series, Love and Irving must step up.

Trends:

The Golden State Warriors are:

4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
5-0 ATS in their last 5 NBA Championship games.
4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are:

16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
5-12 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 2 days rest.
1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.


The pick: Golden State +1

The last time the Warriors faced the Cavaliers in Cleveland they won 132-98. I don’t expect the Warriors to blow them out in this one, but they should pick up a narrow road win. There’s a chance Golden State sweeps this series.
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 9:05 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:58 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Golden State Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 Friday games.
Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Cleveland Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games.
Head to Head Warriors are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings.




The Cleveland Cavaliers came home and completely changed the tone of the series in a dominating Game 3 performance and have a chance to even things up at two wins apiece when they host the Golden State Warriors in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Friday. The Cavaliers have a decision to make in regards to power forward Kevin Love, who sat out the previous game with a concussion and watched his team’s defense improve.

The absence of Love allowed Cleveland to go to a smaller lineup with LeBron James starting at power forward and Richard Jefferson sliding into the first unit, which solved some of the matchup problems the team was having with Warriors power forward Draymond Green in the first two games. “We definitely need him back," Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue told reporters of Love, though he would not commit to returning the former star to the starting lineup. "We miss his rebounding. We miss his post presence. We miss his 3-point shooting. So we definitely want him back, but he has to take the steps necessary to get himself back.” Golden State won the first two games by a combined 48 points despite reigning two-time MVP Steph Curry not playing up to his usual standards, and another sub-par effort in the Game 3 loss brought his struggles under the microscope. “I stick to my preparation and my mental strategy of staying within myself to get myself out of a hole, and not panicking and not over-complicating things and not trying to psych myself out,” Curry told reporters. “There’s a reason I have confidence out there, and it’s about how I prepare for games.”


ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Coach Steve Kerr called his team “soft” after Game 3, and the players seemed to agree with their coach when they spoke to the media the following day. “Because we were,” Curry responded when asked about the “soft” label. “They were more physical, they were more purposeful about what they were doing and it took us probably a quarter and a half to respond, and by that time it’s too late. You’re down 33-14 on the road in the finals, you’re not going to win many games with that kind of deficit.” Golden State shot 54.3 percent from the field and won the rebounding battle 52-47 in a 110-77 Game 2 win but slumped to 42.1 percent from the field while getting crushed 60-41 on the glass in Game 3.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: Cleveland was in desperation mode going into Game 3 and realizes that it needs to maintain that sense of urgency on Friday. “It's the same,” James told reporters. “It's the same mindset. We can't afford to go down 3-1 and go into their building and give them confidence going back. So it's a do-or-die game for us still.” The Cavaliers got a big boost in Game 3 from point guard Kyrie Irving, who outscored (30-29), collected more assists (eight to four) and committed far fewer turnovers (two versus eight) than the Warriors’ “Splash Brothers” combination of Curry and Klay Thompson.

WALK-OFFS

1. Curry’s 48 points are the fewest through the first three games in NBA Finals history for a player who averaged 30 points or more in the regular season.

2. Cleveland G J.R. Smith scored 20 points on 7-of-13 shooting in Game 3 after totaling eight points on 3-of-9 in the first two games.

3. Love has yet to be cleared through the NBA’s concussion protocol and is considered questionable for Game 4.

PREDICTION: Warriors 102, Cavaliers 99
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 9:23 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

If Golden State thought that they were just going to break out the brooms and sweep Cleveland under the rug, they found out otherwise on Wednesday night. The Warriors quickly found themselves down 33-13, before a 10-0 got them back into the mix. By halftime, they trailed by just eight points, but could not sustain any momentum in the second half. The “Splash Brothers” had an off night, just as they did in Game 1, but this time around the rest of the squad was unable to pick up the slack. Curry would eventually end up with 19 points, while Klay Thompson had just 10. The two combined to hit just four of 16 shots from beyond the arc. Harrison Barnes came up with 18 points in the losing effort. “It’s the NBA. This is how it is,” said Warriors‘ head coach Steve Kerr. “If you let your guard down and the other team is angry, then you can see this kind of turnaround. It’s happened in every series for us . . . It’s the way it goes.



After getting curb stomped in Game 2, Cleveland came out meaning business Wednesday night. LeBron James cruised to a double-double with 32 points and 11 rebounds while Kyrie Irving pitched 30 points of his own. The win snapped a seven-game losing streak to the Warriors that had dated back to last season’s Finals. Richard Jefferson started in place of Love and it seemed to help out on the defensive side of the ball. Still no word on whether or not Love will play Friday, but even if he is available to go, we could see Jefferson starting in his spot again. Tristan Thompson scored 14 points with 13 rebounds, including seven offensive boards. The two-time reigning MVP, Curry, is shooting just 44 percent through three games, including 40 percent from 3-point range. With the victory, the Cavaliers improved their home record to 8-0 at home this postseason.

Trends:

Cleveland is:

17-7 ATS in their last 24 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Pacific

The Cavaliers woke up in Game 3 in front of their home crowd and are now tasked with trying to repeat the performance, whether it be with, or without, Love on Friday night. One love they know they will get for sure, will be from their home crowd. While they are not likely to roll by 30 points again, another victory in Cleveland seems probable.


Pick: Cleveland -2
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 9:45 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

NBA

Cleveland-Golden State (GSt 2-1)
Warriors won seven of last eight games with Cleveland, beating Cavaliers in six games in LY's Finals; Warriors are 3-5 on road in playoffs, with at least one road loss in each series- they're 3-1 in last four games in Cleveland, winning by 34-8-21 points. Cavaliers are 13-4 in playoffs, 8-0 at home. Cavs made 12-25 on arc in Game 3, had 17 offensive boards and shot 53% from floor. Four of last five Golden State games, three of last four Cavalier games stayed under the total. Curry/Thompson were combined 4-16 on arc in Game 3.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1
Final: Favorites: 3-0, Over: 1-2
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 7:06 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 11:07 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

GOLDEN STATE (87 - 15) at CLEVELAND (70 - 29) - 6/10/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 57-42 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 64-44 ATS (+15.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 45-32 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 46-30 ATS (+13.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 52-39 ATS (+9.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 8-7 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-5 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 11:08 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Trend Report

9:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. CLEVELAND
Golden State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Golden State is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home



Golden State at Cleveland, 9:00 ET
Golden State: 4-12 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days
Cleveland: 13-5 ATS at home after a game where they made 12 or more 3 pt shots
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 11:10 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | GOLDEN STATE at CLEVELAND
Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, on Friday nights
248-157 since 1997. ( 61.2% | 75.3 units )
28-22 this year. ( 56.0% | 3.8 units )

NBA | GOLDEN STATE at CLEVELAND
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games
186-81 since 1997. ( 69.7% | 63.1 units )
5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 2.3 units )

NBA | GOLDEN STATE at CLEVELAND
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 very good shooting team - shooting >=48% on the season
197-117 since 1997. ( 62.7% | 68.3 units )
14-8 this year. ( 63.6% | 5.2 units )
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 11:29 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Indian Cowboy

7-Unit Play. #507. Take Under 207 Golden State vs. Cleveland (Friday @ 9pm est) (Currently 207 at Sportsbook and Stations)
We would be remiss to tell you that if you have enjoyed our NBA Season this year as we have posted +$4600 in profti we would love for you to join us for the WNBA which is just $499 for the Entire Season all summer long. Basketball doesn't have to end! We are already on a record pace and have the #1 WNBA Season in America as we are 14-5 (74%) for +$3380 and we are just getting started. We set a goal of +$6000 this year for the WNBA and now we sit at +$3380 and we are on pace for a +$10,000 season in the WNBA - which is very difficult to do. We have posted +$43,000 in NBA/CBB Profit over the last 3 straight winning years and now we look to do that in the WNBA and we would love for you to join us! As the NBA Season winds down, take a moment and join us for the great value of the WNBA Season! This total will rise closer to gametime if you want to wait. The public will continue to hammer the over here given what happened in Game 3 with a Final of 120-90 as the game totaled at 220 points. Of course we were on the over so we were ok with a high scoring affair. But, this is different. We expect the game to go under and frankly we want Kevin Love to play which helps the under more. If Kevin Love does not play, we believe it will be a bit more higher scoring and Cleveland has a better chance to win on the side. If Kevin Love does play, we believe it will be lower scoring and favors Golden State on the side. Frankly, we believe the flow of Cleveland's offense is leaps and bounds better without Love as the roles of other players are more solidified. Kyrie becomes more of a scorer and so does JR as he becomes more aggressive and the wings of Frye and Jefferson are more aggressive as well. But, per this game, we like the Under as it's hard to imagine Golden State letting Cleveland's offense go to 120 points once again. We expect Golden State to make the necessary adjustments in this game and at the same token, we expect Cleveland to continue to be very physical with the Golden State guards. Note, the Under is 5-1 for the Warriors after allowing a 100 or more points in their previous game and the Under is 6-2 for the Cavs when they play the Western Conference and the Under is 9-4-1 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams as well. We like this game to reach the high 190's this evening.


Chris James

Golden State Warriors +2
Golden State / Cleveland Over 206.5


Executive

400% Golden St. +2.5


Fezzik | NBA Sides Fri, 06/10/16 - 9:00 PM
double-dime bet 507 GSW 2.5 (-110) Pinnacle vs 508 CLE Analysis: We POUNDED Clev game 3 pk'm, in a great situational spot off a beat down game 2. The Power Ratings made the Cavs -1, and the spot was great for the Cavs. Fast forward to game 4, and NOW the betting markets have knee jerked the line u¬p to 2.5. The power ratings STILL make the game Clev a small favorite, but not it is G. St in a great bounce back spot off a woodshed beat down. We FIRE on Golden State here.


Ben Burns

Cavs/GS Over the Total


Goodfella
NBA
Cleveland Cavs ML -125 GOM triple dime





Nover
NBA
CAVS over 206 double dime


JR O'Donnell
CAVS over 206 triple dime




Sleepy J
CAVS - 1.5 triple dime





Paul Leiner:2000* NBA Over 206 Warriors/Cavs


WISEGUY INSIDER



3* Cleveland Cavaliers -2


power play wins

POWER PLAY OF THE DAY FOR FRIDAY 6/10/16

NBA: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -2
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 12:30 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

NBA Finals / Game Four
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS @ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
5***** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
So far so good. After closing out Round Three of the NBA playoffs with an EASY 4**** BEST BET ‘Under' winner in Game Seven of the Western Conference Finals between the Warriors and Thunder (cashed by 35.5 points!), it’s been smooth sailing for our Totals Team in the NBA Finals. In Game One, it was 4* Best Bet winner on UNDER 211.5 points (cashed by 18.5 pts). In Game Two, it was a 3* winner on UNDER 209.5 points (cashed by 22.5 pts). And in Wednesday’s Game Three, it was a 3* winner on OVER 206 points. We’re gunning for five straight Playoff wins in a row for Friday’s Game Four… and all of the querying in our post-season database demands that we ‘raise the ante’ to BEST BET status. After all, based on the last two weeks of OU plays (6-0-1 in all sports), we ARE playing with the man’s money. We won’t give back EVERYTHING that we have accumulated over the last 14 days… but we step up our game on Friday.
As we have mentioned numerous times in the post-season so far, the Warriors have been a GREAT ‘Under’ team in the Playoffs. But when Golden State takes to the road, the OVER has had a very consistent and reliable outcome. GOLDEN STATE has gone 19-9 O/U in their Playoff history when on the ROAD… and the OU line is 215 or less points. That includes 16-5 O/U when the OU line falls in the range of 198 to 215 points… including 9-1 O/U in the last three seasons. On the flipside, the opposite is true for the host Cavaliers. A solid UNDER team when on the road… but at HOME Cleveland has gone reversed course. They’ve scored 104 or more points in EVERY Playoff home game so far in the 2016 postseason, with an average of 112.4 points per game.They’ve already seen gaudy home point totals like 123 pts… 120 pts… 116 pts… and 115 pts. The CAVALIERS have gone a PERFCT 6-0 O/U since 2010 as Playoff home favorites of < 8 points when the OU line is 182 > points.
NBA Playoff GAME FOUR ‘eyebrow-raising’ OVER / UNDER patterns:
(1) In the last five post-seasons, NBA Playoff GAME FOUR home favorites with 1 day of REST and off a SU win (CAVALIERS) have gone a PERFECT12-0 O/U when the OU line is less than (<) 208 points.
(2) Since 1992, NBA Playoff GAME FOUR home teams who scored 120 or more points in Game Three (CAVALIERS) have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U when the OU line is < 219 points.
(3) Since 2010, NBA Playoff GAME FOUR home teams off a SU Game Three win of 20 or more points (CAVALIERS) have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U when the OU line is < 222 points.
The final score of Wednesday’s Game Three was Cleveland 120 - Golden State 90. A home win by 30 freakin’ points…
18-5-1 O/U since 2000: All NBA Playoff ROUND 2, 3, or 4 teams (CAVALIERS) off a SU home win of 30 or more points. GOLDEN STATE just qualified in this 79% OVER situation on Wednesday night, and sharp OU players know what happened in that one (OVER). We also note that these games have gone 14-2 O/U when the game line is LESS than (<) 7 points… including a PERFECT 6-0 O/U in the last two season.
The OU line in Wednesday’s game was 206 points and as we mentioned above, it went OVER the Total…
6-0 O/U last two years: All NBA Playoff teams with an OU line of< 29 points AFTER a SU Playoff home win that also went OVER the Total when the OU line was 205 or more points (CAVALIERS).
So EVERY game of this series has been won by the home team by DOUBLE-DIGITS…
11-1 O/U since 2009: All NBA Playoff HOME teams off a SU Playoff WIN of 10 > pts… a SU Playoff LOSS of 10 > pts… and a SU Playoff LOSS of 10 > pts (CAVALIERS) when the OU line is 178 or more. These games have gone a PERFECT 9-0 O/U in NON-division play…
At last look, the pointspread for Friday’s game was very ‘short’. The host Cavaliers are favored by -1 to -1.5 points…
6-0 O/U last two years: All NBA Playoff ‘short’ home favorites of -3 or less points (OR a ‘pick em) when the OU line is in the range of 200 to 216 points (CAVALIERS).
Golden State finally had their FIVE game Playoff winning streak busted on Wednesday night…
9-1 O/U since 1993: All NBA Playoff ROAD teams off a SU loss that broke a 5+ game Playoff winning streak (WARRIORS)… when the OU line is 202 or more points.
The Warriors are the #1 seed team in the Western Conference…
7-0 O/U since 1997: All NBA Playoff #1 SEED teams off a SU Playoff loss of 20 or more points (WARRIORS) when the OU line is in the range of > 194 pts and < 222 pts.
The Cavaliers are the #1 seed team in the Eastern Conference…
9-1 O/U last three years: All NBA Playoff #1 SEED teams off a SU Playoff win of 20 > points (CAVALIERS) when the OU line is in the range of 198 to 211 points.
We wrap up our database querying with a lookout this particular Day of the Week…
8-0 O/U since 2005: All NBA Playoff non-division FRIDAY games (WARRIORS @ CAVALIERS) in ROUNDS 3 or 4… when the OU line is in the range of > 194 pts and < 222 pts.


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 1:37 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Jimmy Boyd
5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors +




Brad Wilton 100. GS


Jr tips
gold st
under



Johnny Goodtimes - (+2* Thurs.)

Triple: (NBA Season +2.1*)
Cleveland Cavaliers -2 {-110} 3 units
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:13 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 7:58 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Cleveland Cavaliers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 NBA Championship games.
Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Golden State Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.
Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 NBA Championship games.
Head to Head Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State.
Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Cavaliers are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Golden State.


The Golden State Warriors are attempting to win their second straight NBA championship on Monday but will have to play Game 5 without suspended forward Draymond Green. The Warriors hold a 3-1 series lead over the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals but Green won't be inside the arena after the NBA issued a flagrant 1 foul on Sunday for a Game 4 incident in which he swung and hit Cleveland forward LeBron James in the groin.

Green is forced to sit out because it is his fourth flagrant foul of the postseason and coach Steve Kerr didn't publicly say who would start in his place and he also sidestepped a question regarding whether he was disappointed in Green. "That's just something that stays within the team. It's not anything I'm going to comment on," Kerr told reporters at Sunday's press conference. "I'm disappointed for him that he can't play in a big game. But the ruling has been made, and we've got to move on." No team has ever recovered from a 3-1 series deficit to win the NBA Finals and the Cavaliers lost the first two games of the series at Oracle Arena by an average of 24 points and know it will take a supreme effort to force a Game 6. "We've already got to take a flight back home anyways, so we might as well come home with a win and play on our home floor again," James told reporters. "Being a confident bunch we feel like the chips have been stacked up against us all year anyway."

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: James is averaging 24.8 points, 11 rebounds and 8.3 assists in the series but those numbers are being overshadowed by a truly ugly stat - an average of 5.8 turnovers. "Some of them were attack turnovers," James said of his second seven-miscue contest of the series in Game 4. "Trying to squeeze the ball into tight places as a quarterback would, and I'm OK with those. But some of those that are careless, I'm not OK with that." Point guard Kyrie Irving had 34 points in Game 4 for his second consecutive 30-point performance and he is averaging 25 points in the series.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Two-time MVP Stephen Curry broke out of a three-game slumber in a big way with 38 points and seven 3-pointers in the 108-97 victory in Game 4. Curry averaged just 16 points in the first three games and didn't even have a 20-point outing before regaining his form and setting the tone for the road victory. "He's Steph Curry. He's the MVP for a reason," Kerr told reporters. "He doesn't have the size and the strength to dominate a game physically, so he has to dominate with his skill, and that's not an easy thing to do because your shot sometimes isn't going to go in."

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The Warriors have won 88 total games, surpassing the mark of 87 previously set by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.

2. Cleveland PF Kevin Love (concussion) had 11 points in 25 minutes off the bench in Game 4 after sitting out Game 3.

3. Golden State set an NBA Finals record with 17 3-pointers in Game 4.

PREDICTION: Warriors 109, Cavaliers 86
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:22 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25) at Golden State Warriors (73-9)

NBA: Monday, June 13, 2016, at 9:00 p.m. ET

Line: Golden State -7

Over/Under: 206

The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Oracle Arena to take on the Golden State Warriors for game five of the NBA Finals on Monday night. On Friday night the Warriors topped the Cavaliers 108-97 to take a 3-1 lead in the series. The Warriors outscored the Cavaliers 29-20 in the fourth quarter to take control of the contest late. A game five win would give Cleveland some hope to make it a series while a win for the Warriors would make them champions for the second consecutive season.

The Cavaliers know that LeBron James will always show up for them as he has for nearly his entire playing career. James finished with 25 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists in the loss but it was Kyrie Irving who was magnificent as well. Irving led the Cavaliers with 34 points on 14-of-28 from the field. Cleveland shot 47 percent from the field while holding the Warriors to 41 percent. The problem is that Cleveland only made 6-of-25 from 3-point range. Kevin Love had 11 points and five rebounds off the bench.

The Warriors have a commanding 3-1 lead in the series but they’ve done it without the “Splash Brothers” playing to their potential. Going into the contest Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson were averaging a combined 28 points per game. In the second half of game four the duo carried the Warriors to a big victory. Curry had 24 of his 38 points in the second half while Thompson had 14 of his 25 points in the second half. The Warriors connected on 17 threes an NBA Finals record. Free-throw shooting was key in the contest as Golden State made 25-of-31 from the charity stripe. The Cavaliers only made 15-of-26. Draymond Green went for nine points and 12 rebounds. There is a chance the 26-year-old can be suspended for game five after getting into an altercation with James resulting in the two getting tangled up.

Trends:

The Cleveland Cavaliers are:

12-26-2 ATS in their last 40 Monday games.
1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
1-6 ATS in their last 7 NBA Championship games.

The Golden State Warriors are:

6-1 ATS in their last 7 NBA Championship games.
13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.
36-14-2 ATS in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

The Golden State Warriors have a big edge with homecourt and they have the momentum after topping the Cavaliers on the road. I expect Thompson to have his biggest game of the series in a convincing Warriors win. Even if Green is suspended for the game Warriors should have no problem closing the game.


The pick: Golden State -7
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:11 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog
32-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.2% | 21.0 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )

NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play On - Any team vs the money line (CLEVELAND) off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, with a winning record on the season
244-126 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.9% | 77.5 units )
47-23 this year. ( 67.1% | 16.3 units )

NBA | CLEVELAND at GOLDEN STATE
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105.5 after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record
32-10 since 1997. ( 76.2% | 21.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:23 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Arthur Ralph Sports

MON: Blue RIBBONS

Warriors -5 1/2



Insider Sports Report



3* Cleveland/Golden St. UNDER 205 (NBA)
Range: 207 to 203



WISE GUY INSIDER

3% Golden State Warriors -5.5


Power play wins

POWER PLAY OF THE DAY FOR MONDAY 6/13/16

NBA: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS -5.5


John Ryan

25* Golden State Warriors


Sports Handicapper King June 13

NBA
Cleveland +5.5


500wager 6/13 NBA



510 Golden St. Warriors -5.5


World Worst Picker

Super Pick on Cleveland Cavs



NSA

10* NBA Golden St -5.5



bookieshunter NBA

Cavaliers @ WARRIORS (UNDER 204.5 - 2*/DOUBLE DIME PLAY)



Oskeim 4%

Golden State Warriors -5.5


Chris Jordan

1000♦ NBA Winner #6 of 8

NBA Finals Game of the Year


1000 * Golden St



MVP Lock Club

Lock of the Day

NBA: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS -5.5



Indian Cowboy

7-Unit Play. #509. Take Over 204.5 Cleveland vs. Golden State (Monday @ 9pm est)



Big Al

4* Cavaliers +7
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 14, 2016 1:49 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:49 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

BA Finals bettors have a lot to think about before wagering on Thursday's Game 6 at the Quicken Loans Center where do-or-die Cleveland is a 2.5-point favorite over Golden State at most Las Vegas sports books.

Can the Cavs duplicate the insanely efficient Game 6 performance where they won 112-97 to cut the Warriors lead to 3-2. Or do the Warriors step up with Draymond Green back in the lineup and win a Game 6 and an NBA Championship at Cleveland for the second consecutive year?

In Monday's game the Cavs played to the high level most saw when they began the playoffs on a 10-0 run. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving both scored 41-points in the runaway win becoming the only duo in NBA Finals to score more than 40 in a game.

They didn't seem to miss -- especially early on -- combining to make 33 of 54 shots while letting Kevin Love shoot only five times (2 pts in 33 mins). James and also chipped in with 18 boards and seven assists in a game he was obviously charged up for.

So what are bettors on the strip saying?

MGM Resorts sports book hub director Jeff Stoneback already heard people talking when he came into work Tuesday morning. "A regular bettor with us came up to me this morning saying 'I don't know who to play for the next game."

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There's a feeling that nobody can beat the Cavs if Kyrie and LeBron do what they did in Game 5, but the same can be said for Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry. Which duo does the best? And does momentum carry over into Cleveland with a city that will be going absolutely wild as they hope to win its first pro sports championship since 1964. "We're still alive, we believe".

After the home team won and covered the first three games, the last two have been won by the road underdogs. Stoneback said bettors were on the Cavs in Game 6 and they were even taking +5.5 when there were +6 and +6.5s available around town. He said they were a small loser after getting late Warriors money to help balance the risk.

An area where the MGM books aren't balanced is the series price.

"We had lots of people playing the Cavs adjusted series price taking 10-to-1 prior to Game 5," said Stoneback.

"It's a big loss for us; we had over $100,000 worth of liability on it with Monday's action alone."

Because of that risk Stoneback wanted to at least re-open the adjusted price Tuesday morning lower than the market to attract a little more Warriors money.

The Westgate SuperBook had been at Warriors -500/+400 and dropped to -450/+375 Tuesday morning and the Wynn was at -425/+325.

Stoneback re-opened the price at his 10 MGM books along the strip at -420/+340, saying "we can't open it any higher."

The MGM staff will monitor the series price with the goal of not wanting any more Cavs action and attempt to attract Warriors money to balance things out.

Look for them to stay lower throughout the next few days and it's the place to wager at if believing the Warriors will close this thing out within the next two games. Green, who was suspended for Game 5, could be just the boost Golden State needs.

Since posted Game 6 with the Cavs at home being -2 and 207.5 at, Stoneback said he's "seen very little action, like only a couple thousand."

Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 12 years.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:51 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Golden State Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Cleveland Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 Thursday games.
Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Over is 6-1 in Cavaliers last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Head to Head Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.
Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Warriors are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.



The Cleveland Cavaliers needed historic performances from Kyrie Irving and LeBron James to stay alive in the NBA Finals, and the two stars delivered. James and Irving will try to follow up their incredible efforts when Draymond Green returns to the lineup and the Golden State Warriors visit the Cavaliers with another chance to close out the series in Game 6 on Thursday.

Green was hit with a one-game suspension after the NBA deemed his hit to James’ groin in Game 4 a flagrant foul, and the Warriors defense was noticeably less cohesive without its leader. “I thought our defensive communication was lacking,” Golden State coach Steve Ker told reporters. “We had some plays where we didn’t pick up in transition and we had some cross matches that we didn’t identify and they got free, especially Kyrie, and made a lot of shots in transition where we just weren’t there.” James and Irving became the first pair of teammates in NBA Finals history to score at least 40 points in the same game when they both finished with 41 in Game 5, and Irving went 9-of-14 from the field in the second half as Cleveland pulled away. "You've got a guy like this who is very special," James told reporters of Irving. "It's probably one of the greatest performances I've ever seen live."


ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State’s defense took a second hit in addition to the loss of Green when anchor Andrew Bogut went down early in the third quarter of Game 5 with a knee injury. Bogut did not return to the game and underwent an MRI exam that revealed bone bruises that will force him out for the rest of the Finals but will not require surgery. The Warriors could make up for the loss with a little help on the offensive end from MVP Steph Curry, who went 8-of-21 from the field on Monday and is averaging 22.2 points on 42.4 percent shooting in the series – down from a league-best 30.1 points on 50.4 percent in the regular season.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: Cleveland is trying to become the first team ever to overcome a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals and needs another blistering effort from Irving and James, who combined to account for 97 of the team’s 112 points in Game 5 including assists to other teammates. "Same thing,” Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue told reporters of the plan for Game 6 at home. “Continue to be aggressive, continue to bring physicality and continue to attack.” Cleveland got forward Kevin Love back from a concussion in Game 5 but the former All-Star was limited to two points on 1-of-5 shooting in 33 minutes.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. James is averaging 28 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists in the series and committed only two turnovers in Game 5.

2. Cleveland C Tristan Thompson is averaging 14 rebounds in the two wins and eight in the three losses in the series.

3. Golden State went 3-of-22 from 3-point range in the second half on Monday after hitting 11-of-21 before the break.

PREDICTION: Warriors 102, Cavaliers 97
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 9:18 am    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Despite heading into halftime with things all tied up, Golden State came out and missed 14 of their first 20 shots in the second half. Overall they made just seven of 24 of their shot attempts in the third quarter. The “Splash Brothers” did their part as Klay Thompson poured in 37 points with six 3-pointers, and Stephen Curry pitched in 25 with five 3’s but it was not enough to stop a determined Cleveland side. Defending finals MVP Andre Iguodala added a double-double in the losing effort with 15 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists. The team scored just 36 points in the second half, while only shooting 26.7 percent from the floor. The squad, known for its 3-point shooting, could only manage to make three of their 21 attempts from beyond the arc in the half. The home loss was just the second in 13 contests this postseason. The team had 17 turnovers and had their streak of six straight Game 5 victories snapped.

Cleveland stood toe to with the Warriors in the first half and the two teams went into the locker rooms all knotted up at 61 apiece. In the second half, however, the Cavs turned up the intensity on defense, and only allowed Golden State to score 13 points in the fourth quarter, en route to the 15-point victory. After shooting just 43.6 percent during the first four games the series, Cleveland managed to hit 53 percent of their shots in Draymond Green‘s absence. Kryie Irving led the way for the Cavaliers with 41 points on 17-for-24 shooting. He also was 5-7 from beyond the arc, and the team as a whole was 10-for-24 from distance. LeBron James scored 41 points of his own on 16-for-30 shooting while making four of his eight 3-point attempts. The squad is now 14-0 this postseason when scoring over 100 points.

Trends:

Golden State is:

4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game
5-0 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game
11-1 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games
9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home

Cleveland is:

2-6 ATS in their last 8 NBA Championship games

The Warriors seemed to be just a bit off without Green in the lineup. The last time they played with him in Cleveland, they walked away with an 11-point victory. Look for Golden State to come together in Game 6 and close out the series to claim their second straight NBA Championship.


Pick: Golden State +2.5
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 8:26 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

Game 6 Props - Best Bets

The NBA Finals continues on Thursday with Game 6 between the Cavaliers and Warriors from Quicken Loans Arena. If you’re hesitant to back the side or total for the second contest in this series, then we suggest you take a closer look at the available player props.

Our trio of NBA experts produced a 6-2 overall record for Game 5 and those winners produced over nine units of profit.

Chris David: 8-3 (+1405)
Tony Mejia: 10-5 (+1080)
Kevin Rogers: 8-6 (+20)

Based on a five-unit bankroll, their top props are listed for Game 6 below.

Chris David

2 Units – Over Harrison Barnes Total Points+Rebounds+Assists 17 ½ (-115)

Harrison Barnes is a tough player to figure out and he’s been very inconsistent in this year’s playoffs but for whatever reason, he’s produced better numbers on the road versus Cleveland. In the first two road battles versus the Cavaliers, he combined for 29 points, rebounds and assists in Game 3 and a total of 24 in Game 4. He’s coming off his second worst shooting performance (2-of-14) of the playoffs in Game 5 and I believe he bounces back in this spot. For what it’s worth, Barnes averaged 15.3 PPG in the regular season in games played on Thursday, which was the highest daily average.

2 Units – Under Kevin Love Total Points+Rebounds 17 ½ (-105)

After putting up 17 points and 13 boards in the opener of this series, Kevin Love has fallen off the map due to the concussion injury and more importantly the matchup against Golden State. Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue knows he’s a liability defensively and his minutes have been limited, more now with the Warriors likely going even smaller with no Bogut. If the game gets out of hand, Love will be subbed out and could be watching his final game in Cleveland from the bench.

1 Unit – Richard Jefferson will make a 3-Point Field Goal (+180)

In the 14 playoff games that Jefferson has attempted a 3-point shot, he’s made at least one in nine of those games. Since my above prop is leaning to Love being replaced by Jefferson, I’m going to double-up and hope RJ hoists at least one or two from 3-point land. He’s shooting 41 percent from the playoffs and that’s a solid number to back, especially with a return close to 2/1 odds.


Kevin Rogers

2 Units - Under Draymond Green Total Points 15 (-115)

Green returns from his suspension, but struggled in both games at Quicken Loans Arena. In the two road games at Cleveland, Green scored a total of 15 points, while failing to hit a three-pointer in eight attempts. Green will make more of an impact defensively on James and should grab double-digit rebounds, but not score more than 15 points.

2 Units - Over Harrison Barnes Total Points+Rebounds+Assists 17 ½ (-115)

For as bad as Green has been in Cleveland in this series, Barnes has been the opposite. The former UNC standout stunk in Game 5 by shooting 2-of-14 from the floor for 5 points, but averaged 16 points per game in two games at the Q. Barnes pulled down eight rebounds in each of those games, as he should have a nice bounce-back in Game 6.

1 Unit - Over Kyrie Irving Total Made Free Throws 3 ½ (-125)

Irving blew up for 41 points in Game 5, while attempting at least 24 shots in each of the last three games. After attempting 12 free throws in Game 1, Irving has been to the line only 10 times in the last four games. However, Irving is going to get plenty of opportunities to score and is an excellent free throw shooter, so if he can attack the basket in Game 6, the 'over' should cash.


Tony Mejia

2 Units – Over LeBron James Rebounds+Assists 19 ½ (-115)

After a dominant Game 5 on the glass in which he grabbed 16 boards, James isn't likely to surpass that number, but should break into double-digits in assists, surpassing his series average and likely notching a triple-double, win or lose.

1.5 Units – Over Stephen Curry Points 28 (-115)

After a brutal Game 3 where he wasn't mentally ready at the onset, Curry played his best, quieting critics as well as the Cleveland crowd. Expect him to at least match his regular-season average of 30 points here.

1.5 Units – Over Andre Iguodala Rebounds+Assists 10 ½ (-115)

Even with Draymond Green back, the Warriors should get plenty out of Andre Iguodala, who had 11 boards and six dimes in Game 5 and will again be involved in all facets off the bench.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 8:29 pm    Post subject: Re: nba playoff stuff!

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | GOLDEN STATE at CLEVELAND
Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog
32-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.2% | 21.0 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )

NBA | GOLDEN STATE at CLEVELAND
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or more
33-4 over the last 5 seasons. ( 89.2% | 25.7 units )
9-3 this year. ( 75.0% | 3.1 units )

NBA | GOLDEN STATE at CLEVELAND
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 very good shooting team - shooting >=48% on the season
197-118 since 1997. ( 62.5% | 67.2 units )
14-9 this year. ( 60.9% | 4.1 units )
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