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All Forums > WHATS ON YOUR MIND > SPORTS SHIT > SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!
SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:59 am    Post subject: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Wow kinda early,but will see.



Gaming Today




Winning Points


Last edited by poipounder on Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:59 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:10 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

This might be Interesting.



Some Results of Superbowls 44-51 prop bets
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:41 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Wow I'm really surprised these newsletters out already.still some time to go.




Powersweep



Powerplays
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:43 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Pointwise
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:45 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Playbook Midweek Superbowl
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:56 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

This is not VSIN for superbowl,but for baskets.Again 1st year of newsletter i believe,and in foots killed it 17-3 in nfl playoffs,and bowls weren't to shabby along with regular season.gltall!


VSIN Baskets
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:36 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Eagles Bettors Should be Happy that Gene Steratore is Working


Steratore was assigned the Super Bowl last week and brings 15 years of officiating experience into the game (12 years as referee) and it will be his first appearance in a Super Bowl.

During the regular season, Steratore worked 15 games, with favorites going 12-3 straight up and 8-5-2 against the spread. OVERs had a slight edge in totals, going 8-6-1 in those contests. He worked two Pats games (Week 7 vs the Falcons, Week 13 at Buffalo) and one Eagles game (Week 9 vs the Broncos) with the two Super Bowl LII participants winning and covering the spread.

As far as his playoff career is concerned, this will be his 10th game as referee. So far, underdogs have made out quite well, going 4-5 SU and 6-3 ATS.

Perhaps more interestingly, though, is the Eagles’ success with Steratore working their games. The Eagles have played 13 games since 2007 with Steratore and have gone 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS. A more recent sample size reveals a five-game SU winning streak (4-1 ATS) and a mark of 9-1 SU since December 7, 2008.

This referee data here goes back to 2012 and the Eagles’ 5-1 SU record in Steratore games is tied for the best among NFL referees (with at least five games worked) with Clete Blakeman. As far as the spread goes, Philly’s 4-2 ATS record ranks fourth behind Ed Hochuli’s 6-1 ATS, Blakeman’s 5-1 ATS and Walt Coleman’s 5-2 ATS records.

As far as the Pats are concerned, there isn’t too much that pops off the page. The Pats have a SU winning percentage of 79.0 since the start of 2007 (regular season only) and an ATS winning percentage of 60.9. In Steratore’s games, the SU percentage dips a little to 73.3 (11-4 SU) while the ATS percentage drops to 57.1 (8-6 ATS with one push).
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:52 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Goldsheet Superbowl
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:55 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Powerpicks
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:06 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

VSIN
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:10 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Phil Steele
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:41 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Gang found this from across the street.go to Superbowl betting info at the top.excellent stuff!



Superbowl betting info
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:39 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

From what I see:


Marc Lawrence website play eagles +5
Marc Lawrence NFL Three Star Super Bowl Play - Eagles + 5

King Creole 3 star over 48


Goodluck!
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:34 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Jim Feist
Posted: 2018-01-31

Billions of dollars will pass over the legal betting counters in Las Vegas by the time Super Bowl 52 kicks off. Prop bets will be a large part of that money. Prop bets were once looked at as sucker bets by the sportsbooks. Now, they are a huge part of the Super Bowl experience and can not only be fun, but money makers for the knowledgeable bettor.

I'm going to take a look at some prop wagers and give you some of those I have already played for FREE.

Here is an interesting trend involving Super quarterbacks. Collectively, NFL MVP Super Bowl quarterbacks are 6-14 SU and 5-13-2 ATS in all games, including 0-7 both SU&ATS since 2002.

As part of my FREE Super Bowl Props, here are the props I am betting and giving away. Good Luck and have fun!

Phi/NE most points scored 2nd Half+OT -125 for Game

No (score 3 unanswered times) +154 for Game

Yes (2 point conversion scored) +239 for Game

Yes (Overtime) +1086 for Game

L.Blount rushing attempts over 7 -120 for Game

L.Blount rushing yards over 26 -105 for Game

Yes (Overtime) +770 for Game

PHI/NE Total QB sacks in game over 4 -110 for Game

Eagles Total TD's in game over 2 +115 for Game

Eagles Total TD's in game over 3 +265 for Game

Patriots Total TD's in game over 3 +155 for Game

PHI/NE Total QB sacks in game over 4 -160 for Game

The best part of the Super Bowl is the atmosphere, friends, family, good food, good drinks and don't forget the commercials. Have fun and good luck.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:48 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Greg shaker

3*
Philadelphia + 5.5


When this season began the clear strength of the Philadelphia Eagles was their defensive line. Then Wentz became their biggest strength. Now it's their defensive line again. NOBODY has been able to stop this crew from reeking havoc with QB's. This is a deep team on the line and they are going to get to Brady. Brady does not do well when he is pressured so we think this is absolutely the key to the win and we do think Philly will win the game outright. Yes I will have some money line money on this one. We saw how they Pats barely beat the Jags and it was not all about "The Hand." Jacksonville's D had a lot to do with the Narrow Patriots win. Foles may not be Wentz but he's not that bad and is getting better and better with each game. The Eagles, unli™ke the Jags are a team that is built to play with the lead. They are not likely to fold on Sunday. We are also expecting Philly to create some turnovers as well, just like they have all year. This was an easy selection for us and is a 3* Play at any number you can get...Props hitting all week and should be played for 1% each unless otherwise noted. Your Lines on these will vary from Book to Book. I am going to post what I think are Consensus Lines..

Super Bowl LII Prop Bets
1) Under 9.5 Points 1st Quarter -110
2) Will Zach Ertz will Score a TD. YES +145
3) Total Sacks by Both Teams Over 4.5 -115
4) Patriots Over 1.5 Field Goals -140





Spartan

3*
Philadelphia +5

Well here we are. This is the one game each year that ends up being the poster child for the term paralysis of analysis. You will, over the time leading up to kick off hear so many varying opinions you will get dizzy. There will be legitimate football insiders who will clash in their predictions. Happens every year. So welcome to this guys opinion. While I have the absolute utmost respect for Tom Brady and Coach B. I cannot get past the stubborn fact that their defense simply is not in reality all that good this time around. They finished 29th overall in the league in total defense and that is simply not an ideal recipe for winning another Lombardi trophy. On the flip side this Eagles defense seems to be peaking at the exact right time. They basically abused the Vikings in that title game. They also held on against a very explosive Falcons team. The Patriots have a proven knack for coming from behind and have proven it. I will not be shocked if they pull the win out but no way am I comfortable laying these points to a red hot Eagles team playing with a swagger right now. Lets take just a moment and look at the Patriots history in the super bowl. And let's go back away's and check the good and bad. Yes, last year they won by 6 over the Falcons but it took a miracle to do it. In my view a combination of gritty play from Brady and company along with some choking by the Falcons. Sorry. In 2015 they beat Seattle by four points when they held up on the goal line, remember that. I stand by my opinion had Lynch gotten the ball on the last play that would have ended differently. In 2012 they lost to the Giants outright 21-17. In 2008 they also lost to the Giants. In 2005 they beat the Eagles but only by 3 points 24-21. In 2004 they beat the Panthers but by only 3 points 32-29. In 2002 theÚy beat the Rams but only by 3 points 20-17. There is a common theme here, they play close games fellas. No reason in the world against this Eagles team we should anticipate anything different in my own view. Nick Foles has stepped in under tough circumstances and improved game by game. Doug Pederson has worked some magic with Foles. I could go on and on but the bottom line here is I do think the Eagles will have success moving the chains on this Patriots defense and I am very confident the Eagles defense will hound Brady all game long. A lot of these games turn into blow outs but nothing here suggests that to me. I expect a close battle that will likely go down to the wire. I am going Triple on the Eagles plus the points.

Now, I have won 10 of my last 12 super bowl plays. That is very solid but it is not 100%. My long term clients know I don't deal in BS like locks. Never have. PLEASE do not wager more than you can afford on any one event, super bowl or not. Not trying to preach, quite the opposite. Trying to help. Please also check back as I likely will add some props as well as we draw closer to game day.

Many thanks as always and best of luck to all of us. Enjoy the big game.

Prop Wager: Bovada, Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game. I say play the No at +125.

Prop Wager: Will a special teams or defensive touchdown be scored? Yes, +180





Our selection is on the Eagles/Patriots OVER 48
We just love the idea of giving Tom Brady and Bill Belichick two weeks to come up with a game plan to exploit the Eagles pass defense. There is no doubt the Eagles who have the number one rushing defense will be able to stop NE on the ground but we doubt very much that they will be able to stop them through the air. Philadelphia was ranked 17th in passing defense this year and although that is very decent, Jacksonville was number 1 and Brady and Co put up 273 on them. We believe Brady will have a big passing game, as this might be his last time getting to a Super Bowl and he should be able to put some big yards against the Eagles.
The Eagles come into this game off a HUGE domination of the Minnesota Vikings. QB Nick Foles has not been receiving the respect that we believe he deserves. The journeyman has played excellent in the two Eagles playoff games going against some very tough defenses in Atlanta and Minnesota. Now he gets his chance to go up against the 30th ranked pass D of the Patriots. We know that Brady has all the experience when it comes to this game but we also know Foles is paid a lot of money to do what he is doing and although he might have some early nerves we totally believe he will help the Eagles offense put up a bunch of points today. The Eagles averaged 28.6 points in the regular season, which was good for second in the NFL in scoring tying them with the Patriots. We know most of that damage was done with QB Carson Wentz but nothing tells us any different that QB Foles will not have his way with this porous New England defense.
Backing our selection is the fact that the Over is 12-2 in Eagles last 14 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and the fact that the Over is 8-2 in Patriots last 10 playoff games. We had this total when it came out on Monday at 51. Now that Gronkowski has been cleared to play come game time on Sunday you will see this total at 49 1/2 and maybe 50.
So let’s get the job done with the New England/Philadelphia game OVER 48.

We have two Prop selections that we played and still have great value. When betting props you should shop around as we all know 1 yrd or point can be the difference in a winner or a loser.
These are from Pinnacle and Bet 365 as of Friday Morning


Number 1 Prop Bet James White OVER 3 1/2 receptions plus 114

Number 2 Prop Bet Total Rushing yards game UNDER 200.5 minus 110


Good Luck with all your plays
Don Buster



Goodfella 3* Pats ml
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:58 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

The Prez

4% Philadelphia Eagles +4.5


The following 10 Props can be wagered on at most all Vegas and Offshore Sportsbooks. The following prices used in this Super Bowl analysis were provided by BET365.


1. Total Rushing Yards Under 200.5 -110
2. Total Sacks Under 4.5 +100
3. Dion Lewis Under 14.5 -125
4. Dion Lewis Under 55.5 -110
5. Jay Ajayi Over 14.5 +100
6. Jay Ajayi Over 62.5 -120
7. Total Pass Yards – Under 537.5 -120
8. Total FGs – Exactly 3 +280
9. Results Score and Total – Phi and Under +333
10. Total Touchdowns Over 4 -200


Norm Hitzges


Double Play - Eagles +5
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:59 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Raphael Esparza (VSI)


4 Unit Play. Take #101 Under 48 Philadelphia vs New England (6:30p.m., Sunday February 4 NBC)

I do believe Sunday night in Minnesota at the U.S. Bank Stadium we will see a close and hard fought Super Bowl with a low scoring game. The Super Bowl loser in the past 12 years has scored no more then 17 points and the Eagles defense in their last two-playoff games have given a total of 17 points. The Patriots defense has also played really well coming into this game Sunday night and the Pats have been trending UNDER games going 2-5 OU in their last 7 games. No matter who wins this Super Bowl Sunday night I see a close game with the winners winning by 4-points or less and I see this game flying UNDER the total. New England last 14 games 10 of them have gone UNDER and the Eagles are 4-10-1 O/U in their last 15 playoff games.


NFL SUPER BOWL PROP PLAYS


3 Unit Play. Take Philadelphia +7.5 -180 (Pointspread Proposition) over New England (6:30p.m., Sunday February 4 NBC)

Like I said in the write-up up above this will be a close game and the winner will win by 4-points or less. Patriots won last year in the Super Bowl 34-28 and the Patriots won in Super Bowl 49 28-24 and if the Pats win this game they won't win by a touchdown. The Eagles impressed me both playoff games and we hit two big unit plays in both playoff games and Sunday night we hit a nice 3-Unit Point Spread prop with the Philadelphia Eagles.


2 Unit Play. Take Philadelphia Total Points in SB -180 over Total Goals in Sunday's 3 NHL Games (6:30p.m., Sunday February 5 FOX)

Three NHL games are going on Sunday before the Super Bowl kicks off and I'm seeing anywhere from 16-19 goals being scored. I do see the Eagles scoring around in the low 20's against the Patriots defense and if Nick Foles gets hot then I see us having no problem winning this Super Bowl prop.


6 Unit Play. Take Giannis Antetokounmpo -1/2 -110 over New England Total Points in Super Bowl (6:30p.m., Sunday February 5 FOX)

The Milwaukee Bucks star the Greek Freak is on the road Super Bowl Sunday in Brooklyn and I see him having a big day in Brooklyn. The Greek Freak is averaging 28.5ppg and the Nets as a team is giving an average of 108.8ppg. The Eagles in their last two NFL playoff games they held the Falcons and Viking to a total of 17 points and the Eagles defense is one of the main reasons why I see the Greek Freak having more points then the New England Patriots on Super Bowl Sunday.
These are all the plays Super Bowl Sunday and at this time I would like to say Thank You for your purchases and next year we go for three straight winning NFL/NCAAF seasons. Your next update will be in August 2018. Be sure to check out the L.V. Informs on my profile page for daily updates and free picks.

Good Luck to All - Raphael Esparza (The Vegas Sports Informer)
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:01 am    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Brandon Lang

My 200 Dime Super Sunday move is the Eagles over the Patriots. The current line is +4 1/2 in Vegas and offshore as of 3:00 AM Eastern Monday morning. Be sure to shop around for the best price available. Now if this price drops to +4 (or +3 1/2, which is unlikely) I want you to buy up the 1/2-point on Philadelphia.

Brandon Lang Prop Bets:
Coin Toss - Tails
National Anthem - Under
1st score field goal - (+120)
Team to record 1st sack - Eagles (Even)
Eagles score in every quarter - Yes (+140)
Rushing attempts by Nick Foles - 1 1/2 - Over -130
Zack Ertz receptions - 5 1/2 - Over -110
Will Tom Brady throw an INT - Yes (+130)
First player to score - Torrey Smith (18-1)
Super Bowl MVP - Nick Foles (4-1)





Tom Stryker

15-0 ATS & 14-0 ATS SUPER BOWL BEST BET

Patriots




Goodfella 3* Pats ml



ASA
3* Under

Props
UNDER 9.5 Points in the first quarter
OVER 4.5 Receptions for Patriots Danny Amendola
Will Patriot’s kicker Gostkowski’s first kickoff go for a touchback? No
Will Eagles have a 4th down conversion in the game? Yes
First TD scored by the Eagles? – TE Zach Ertz at +425
First TD scored by the Patriots? – WR Danny Amendola at +700


Virgobbi Sports NFL SuperBowl LII Pick:

2-Team 6-Point Teaser On The Eagles +10.5 and u54.5



Mike missanelli
Eagles
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:34 pm    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

NORTHCOAST:

Released TODAY THURSDAY 2/1/18
MARQUEE SINGLE: Total Players With Rush Attempts (O/U 8.5 Players): OVER -140
MARQUEE DOUBLE: Will There Be a Special Teams or Defensive TD? YES +170
MARQUEE SINGLE: Team With Most Rushing Yards in Super Bowl: Eagles (-9.5 yds, Even)
MARQUEE DOUBLE: Team With Longest Kickoff Return in Super Bowl: Patriots (-120)
MARQUEE SINGLE: Receiving Yards for NE’s Danny Amendola (O/U 56.5 Yards) OVER -110
MARQUEE TRIPLE: Will There Be a 2-point Conversion Attempt? YES +135

Released Tuesday 1/30/18
MARQUEE SINGLE: Most Net Yards in the Super Bowl: Eagles +110
MARQUEE DOUBLE: Team to Score Last in the First Half: Patriots -115
MARQUEE SINGLE: Will New England’s Trey Flowers record a sack? NO -140
MARQUEE DOUBLE: Shortest Made Field Goal in Super Bowl (O/U 26.5 Yards): OVER -110
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:37 pm    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Steve Merril
No official play on the full game, but I do have a light opinion on the total. Best value is with the 8 prop bets listed below.

(1% opinion) OVER 48.5 (Eagles/Patriots) - 6:30 pm ET (NBC) #101

-Philadelphia’s offense broke out in the NFC Championship with 38 points on 456 total yards
-offense averages 28.5 points per game on the road vs. defenses that allow 21.6 points per game
-Eagles' defense was much worse on the road; giving up 11.1 points more per game (23.5-12.4)

-New England has scored 23 points or more in 15 of their 18 games; expect more of the same
-offense is averaging 28.7 points per game vs. defenses that only allow 22.2 points per game
-Patriots' defense gives up 5.9 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 5.5 yards per play

-------------------

No opinion on the side. The key to this game is how well backup QB Nick Foles plays for the Eagles. He has been solid in his two playoff games so far, but he is now playing away from home and on a much bigger stage. Using all games this season would make the Patriots just a 1-point favorite, however adjusting for Foles at quarterback (instead of Wentz) makes New England a 3.5-point favorite, so while I expect the Patriots to win the game, the pointspread is too high. This game will likely be close throughout as the teams trade points back and forth. New England has a history of winning close Super Bowls with their five victories coming by just 3, 3, 3, 4 and 6 point (OT)


No opinion on the side. The key to this game is how well backup QB Nick Foles plays for the Eagles. He has been solid in his two playoff games so far, but he is now playing away from home and on a much bigger stage. Using all games this season would make the Patriots just a 1-point favorite, however adjusting for Foles at quarterback (instead of Wentz) makes New England a 3.5-point favorite, so while I expect the Patriots to win the game, the pointspread is too high. This game will likely be close throughout as the teams trade points back and forth. New England has a history of winning close Super Bowls with their five victories coming by just 3, 3, 3, 4 and 6 point (OT) margins.

Super Bowl Props

Below are my Prop bet recommendations for Super Bowl 52. I recommend playing each prop as 2% of bankroll as some are correlated and dependent on similar outcomes, therefore you must be careful not to overexpose your bankroll. These lines will vary at each sportsbook, so be sure to shop around for the best numbers.

Will there be 3 straight scores from one team?
YES (-185) … This prop has a strong history of cashing in the Super Bowl. In fact, a team has scored 3 straight times in 36 of the 51 Super Bowls (71%), including seven of the last nine games. Last year, both teams had 3 straight unanswered scores in Super Bowl 51 (Falcons/Patriots). Also, it has already happened in three of the four playoff games this year involving the Patriots and Eagles.

Total Receptions by Danny Amendola (Patriots):
OVER 4.5 (-140) … New England will employ a pass-heavy attack, and their focus should be routes across the middle of the field where the smaller and quicker Patriots' receivers have a major edge. Without Julian Edelman on the field, Brady’s go-to receiver has been Danny Amendola. We expect many targets to Amendola on quick, short routes.

Total Receptions by Chris Hogan (Patriots):
OVER 2.5 (-155) … Chris Hogan will be a sneaky weapon for the Patriots in this game. The Eagles' defense struggled mightily in covering inside slot receivers all season, and while Amendola normally lines up in the slot, we expect Hogan to run some quick-hitting routes as well.

Total Receiving Yards by Dion Lewis (Patriots):
OVER 30.5 (-120) … Once Lewis makes a catch out of the backfield, he will have plenty of open space in front of him simply because of the design of New England’s passing offense. The Eagles have slow-footed linebackers, so Lewis will gain plenty of yards after each catch.

Longest Reception by Rob Gronkowski (Patriots):
OVER 25.5 (-120) … Philadelphia's secondary has a major weakness in the deep middle of the field. When New England sends Rob Gronkowski deep, it’s usually down the middle on a linebacker. The Patriots will try to exploit this weakness multiple times, and we only need one successful catch to cash this prop.

Total Receiving Yards by Jay Ajayi (Eagles):
OVER 21.5 (-110) … Since Nick Foles took over at quarterback, Jay Ajayi has been a major weapon out of the backfield. New England's defense has struggled defending pass-caching running backs this season. Ajayi will get a lot of targets out of the backfield in this game, especially since play caller and head coach Doug Pederson has been excellent in attacking an opponent's defensive weakness this season.

Longest Reception by Jay Ajayi (Eagles):
OVER 10.5 (-110) … This goes hand and hand with the Jay Ajayi prop listed above. Once Ajayi makes a catch out of the backfield, he will have plenty of open space in front of him. The Patriots' linebackers have little chance to contain him, so Ajayi will gain plenty of yards after each catch.

2nd Half + OT is higher scoring (vs. 1st half)
YES (-165) … The first quarter has been low scoring and the fourth quarter has been high scoring in many previous Super Bowls which gives this prop value. Teams are also more conservative early in the game as they do not want to make mistakes, but then the team trailing in the second-half takes more chances which often leads to quick scores, returns for TD, etc. The Patriots have a history of slow starts and have not scored in the first quarter in any of the seven Super Bowls during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:40 pm    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Tony Finn


FINN SUPER BOWL 52 PICKS/PROP REPORT I
Game: (101) Philadelphia Eagles at (102) New England Patriots
Date/Time: Feb 4 2018 6:30 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New England Patriots -4.5 (-103)

View Analysis

The Picks/Props Report analysis for Super Bowl 52 is lited twice, in the side and total recommendations. The following is the Finn Factor report for Super Bowl LII.
____________________

PLAYS
1) New England Patriots -4.5
2) Total OVER 48.5
3) Props are listed following game analysis

There are a large number of situational stats when matching up any two teams. When it comes to Super Sunday there will be various ways to twist and turn the projected picture and make it yours, theirs or ours. However, no two games are every alike. And using last year's stats, or historical stats for the past and use for today's NFL championship is everything but reliable.

Philadelphia and New England both went 13-3 in the regular season, winning the top seed in their respective conference.

The Eagles easily overcame more injuries than did the Pats and found away to overcome the Carson Wentz injury hysteria to earn and hold the No #1 seed to the final Sunday of the season.

Wentz went down in Week 14 and the oddsmakers did a fair job in keeping their pulse on the public's perception of Foles and the team. Most, and that is not an embellishment, believed that the Eagles’ season was over after the injury to Wentz. Hence, the Eagles being underdogs in the Divisional and Conference championship.

The Eagles will be a run-first team in this Super Sunday event. Despite the fact that the Eagles backup signal caller, Foles, has completed over 75 percent of his passes nearing 600 yards that includes three touchdowns and no interceptions. This is the Super Bowl and there isn't any variable more important than experience leading up to and in this big game. The Eagles suffered a large number of player personnel illnesses this week that could and should be laid on the fact the players and coaches didn't do all they could to avoid such an occurrence. More fair would be to state this is not the party that it is for the Brady Bunch.

Foles' true value in this game doesn't match that of Brady and despite his numbers after taking over for Wentz can you trust a quarterback or a defense that falters badly in the final two weeks of the regular season to the defenseless Raiders and Cowboys?

Foles has capable receivers without having a burner that can stretch the Pats secondary. This is the second largest Achilles that limits Foles and the offensive passing game. The combination of Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and tight end Zach Ertz gives the Eagles a chance to throw for 250-plus yards but only if they establish a running game first and foremost with the legs of Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement.

Again, the Eagles want to keep Brady and company off the field today and behind the best offensive line in football the trio of running backs must attack the soft spot in the New England defense and that is the front seven.

Accessing the Eagles defense under the leadership of Jim Schwartz is mission critical. Behind the backfield pressure of All-Pro defensive tackle Fletcher Cox the Eagles keep opposing running games at bay. The Eagles allowed the least yards per game on the ground this year, under 80 per game. As important as Cox is in the trenches the key to the Eagles having success today will be keeping linebackers Nigel Bradham and Mychal Kendricks clean when the Pats do run and keep them away from Brady's spot in the pocket. Conversely, the Eagles will do all they can to move Brady with pressure.

The Eagles secondary is their Achilles and few football doctors like Brady and Belichick are better at pinpointing a team's weakness.

A quick look at the New England Patriots and their matchup against the Eagles offers facts and fiction. Belichick and Brady will not only be pass happy today most of those passes will be quick hitters. Unlike the Eagles the Pats didn't have to overcome multiple injuries during the season. The big two for the Pats this year was losing wide receiver Julian Edelman and linebacker Dont'a Hightower. Outside of the aforementioned the Patriots have been relatively healthy.

Tom Brady is in line to be the MVP of the league and the Super Bowl without a true No #1 wide receiver. Unless you want to consider big tight end Rob Gronkowski just that.

What other quarterback and coaching staff could make Dion Lewis, Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan relevant during a 16-game regular season and make it to the NFL season finale?

The Patriots’ defense isn't anything special, especially the front seven. The unit allowed 360 yards per game this season. But, it is important to note that the secondary is not given the credit it deserves. Especially when they are attacked in the closing stages of games because the Pats have significant leads. The cornerback combination of Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore is better than advertised while the front seven is pedestrian. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will not make any changes for Foles and the bend and don't break nature of his unit will continue to be the theme throughout this game.

Give Belichick and his staff, including Patricia, two weeks to prepare for one team, one game, and a scheme, and it is advised you don't bet against them succeeding.

In conclusion know that this game isn't much different from the regular season. The Patriots will throw the ball around the field. The Eagles will attempt to win the ground and pound war and hold a time of possession edge.. their only way to win.. in truth.

Don't buy into the talk that New England doesn't win Super Bowls by big margins nor are they victorious against the number. The Patriots average margin of victory in their past Super Sunday wins is less than 5 points. They won and covered last year after trailing by 25 points.

It is easy to look back at the history of Super Sunday and use the trends and data at hand. The conference edge is nil with the NFC having a 26-25 record vs the AFC in the first 51 Super Bowl matchups. The Patriots aim to tie the Pittsburgh Steelers with the most Super Bowl wins at six.

Favorites have gone 35-16 straight up and 28-19-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The ‘over/under’ has gone 26-24.

In truth the point spread isn't a big factor in making gamers happy in the Super Bowl. The handicap rarely is a factor in the Super Bowl. Pick the winner and chances are you are cashing at the window. Consider that in 51 big games there has been only six instances where the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the spread (1976, 1989, 1996, 2004, 2005 and 2009)

NEW ENGLAND PATROIT minus the 4.5-to-5 points and OVER the TOTAL OF 48.5 points.


---------

RECOMENDED SUPER BOWL 52 PROPS

1. TEAM TO RECORD MORE FIRST DOWNS
New England Patriots -3 (-115)

2. TOTAL TEAM POINTS - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
UNDER 21 (EVEN)

3. TOTAL TEAM POINTS - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
OVER 27 (-135)

4. FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER
Danny Amendola (NE) +1000

5. FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER FOR THE EAGLES
LeGarrette Blount +500

6. TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS FOR THE PATRIOTS
OVER 3 (-125)

7. LONGEST TOUCHDOWN YARDAGE IN THE GAME
UNDER 43.5 (-115)

8. TEAM TO SCORE THE SHORTEST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME
Eagles -115

9. MARGIN OF VICTORY
Patriots by 7-12 points +400

10. MARGIN OF VICTORY
Patriots by 19-24 points +900

11. TOTAL PASSING YARDS FOR TOM BRADY
OVER 289.5 (-150)

12. TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS THROWN FOR TOM BRADY
OVER 0.5 (+120)
FINN SUPER BOWL 52 PICKS/PROP REPORT II
Game: (101) Philadelphia Eagles at (102) New England Patriots
Date/Time: Feb 4 2018 6:30 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 48.5 (-104)

View Analysis

The Picks/Props Report analysis for Super Bowl 52 is lited twice, in the side and total recommendations. The following is the Finn Factor report for Super Bowl LII.
____________________


PLAYS
1) New England Patriots -4.5
2) Total OVER 48.5
3) Props are listed following game analysis

There are a large number of situational stats when matching up any two teams. When it comes to Super Sunday there will be various ways to twist and turn the projected picture and make it yours, theirs or ours. However, no two games are every alike. And using last year's stats, or historical stats for the past and use for today's NFL championship is everything but reliable.

Philadelphia and New England both went 13-3 in the regular season, winning the top seed in their respective conference.

The Eagles easily overcame more injuries than did the Pats and found away to overcome the Carson Wentz injury hysteria to earn and hold the No #1 seed to the final Sunday of the season.

Wentz went down in Week 14 and the oddsmakers did a fair job in keeping their pulse on the public's perception of Foles and the team. Most, and that is not an embellishment, believed that the Eagles’ season was over after the injury to Wentz. Hence, the Eagles being underdogs in the Divisional and Conference championship.

The Eagles will be a run-first team in this Super Sunday event. Despite the fact that the Eagles backup signal caller, Foles, has completed over 75 percent of his passes nearing 600 yards that includes three touchdowns and no interceptions. This is the Super Bowl and there isn't any variable more important than experience leading up to and in this big game. The Eagles suffered a large number of player personnel illnesses this week that could and should be laid on the fact the players and coaches didn't do all they could to avoid such an occurrence. More fair would be to state this is not the party that it is for the Brady Bunch.

Foles' true value in this game doesn't match that of Brady and despite his numbers after taking over for Wentz can you trust a quarterback or a defense that falters badly in the final two weeks of the regular season to the defenseless Raiders and Cowboys?

Foles has capable receivers without having a burner that can stretch the Pats secondary. This is the second largest Achilles that limits Foles and the offensive passing game. The combination of Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and tight end Zach Ertz gives the Eagles a chance to throw for 250-plus yards but only if they establish a running game first and foremost with the legs of Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement.

Again, the Eagles want to keep Brady and company off the field today and behind the best offensive line in football the trio of running backs must attack the soft spot in the New England defense and that is the front seven.

Accessing the Eagles defense under the leadership of Jim Schwartz is mission critical. Behind the backfield pressure of All-Pro defensive tackle Fletcher Cox the Eagles keep opposing running games at bay. The Eagles allowed the least yards per game on the ground this year, under 80 per game. As important as Cox is in the trenches the key to the Eagles having success today will be keeping linebackers Nigel Bradham and Mychal Kendricks clean when the Pats do run and keep them away from Brady's spot in the pocket. Conversely, the Eagles will do all they can to move Brady with pressure.

The Eagles secondary is their Achilles and few football doctors like Brady and Belichick are better at pinpointing a team's weakness.

A quick look at the New England Patriots and their matchup against the Eagles offers facts and fiction. Belichick and Brady will not only be pass happy today most of those passes will be quick hitters. Unlike the Eagles the Pats didn't have to overcome multiple injuries during the season. The big two for the Pats this year was losing wide receiver Julian Edelman and linebacker Dont'a Hightower. Outside of the aforementioned the Patriots have been relatively healthy.

Tom Brady is in line to be the MVP of the league and the Super Bowl without a true No #1 wide receiver. Unless you want to consider big tight end Rob Gronkowski just that.

What other quarterback and coaching staff could make Dion Lewis, Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan relevant during a 16-game regular season and make it to the NFL season finale?

The Patriots’ defense isn't anything special, especially the front seven. The unit allowed 360 yards per game this season. But, it is important to note that the secondary is not given the credit it deserves. Especially when they are attacked in the closing stages of games because the Pats have significant leads. The cornerback combination of Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore is better than advertised while the front seven is pedestrian. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will not make any changes for Foles and the bend and don't break nature of his unit will continue to be the theme throughout this game.

Give Belichick and his staff, including Patricia, two weeks to prepare for one team, one game, and a scheme, and it is advised you don't bet against them succeeding.

In conclusion know that this game isn't much different from the regular season. The Patriots will throw the ball around the field. The Eagles will attempt to win the ground and pound war and hold a time of possession edge.. their only way to win.. in truth.

Don't buy into the talk that New England doesn't win Super Bowls by big margins nor are they victorious against the number. The Patriots average margin of victory in their past Super Sunday wins is less than 5 points. They won and covered last year after trailing by 25 points.

It is easy to look back at the history of Super Sunday and use the trends and data at hand. The conference edge is nil with the NFC having a 26-25 record vs the AFC in the first 51 Super Bowl matchups. The Patriots aim to tie the Pittsburgh Steelers with the most Super Bowl wins at six.

Favorites have gone 35-16 straight up and 28-19-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The ‘over/under’ has gone 26-24.

In truth the point spread isn't a big factor in making gamers happy in the Super Bowl. The handicap rarely is a factor in the Super Bowl. Pick the winner and chances are you are cashing at the window. Consider that in 51 big games there has been only six instances where the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the spread (1976, 1989, 1996, 2004, 2005 and 2009)

NEW ENGLAND PATROIT minus the 4.5-to-5 points and OVER the TOTAL OF 48.5 points.


---------

RECOMENDED SUPER BOWL 52 PROPS

1. TEAM TO RECORD MORE FIRST DOWNS
New England Patriots -3 (-115)

2. TOTAL TEAM POINTS - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
UNDER 21 (EVEN)

3. TOTAL TEAM POINTS - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
OVER 27 (-135)

4. FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER
Danny Amendola (NE) +1000

5. FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER FOR THE EAGLES
LeGarrette Blount +500

6. TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS FOR THE PATRIOTS
OVER 3 (-125)

7. LONGEST TOUCHDOWN YARDAGE IN THE GAME
UNDER 43.5 (-115)

8. TEAM TO SCORE THE SHORTEST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME
Eagles -115

9. MARGIN OF VICTORY
Patriots by 7-12 points +400

10. MARGIN OF VICTORY
Patriots by 19-24 points +900

11. TOTAL PASSING YARDS FOR TOM BRADY
OVER 289.5 (-150)

12. TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS THROWN FOR TOM BRADY
OVER 0.5 (+120)
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:43 pm    Post subject: Re: SuperBowl Newsletters and Stuff!

Fezzik


NE Moneyline, 2 units at -175 or less, 1 unit at -190

NO OT Risk 5 units -900 or better

YES 3 straight scores -165 or lower, 2 stars

I will update the prices with my final update around 1:30 PST.

***********

Quick Note On Pro Bowl: I am ON the UNDER 69, at 67 or less this is a 2 star play on this Sunday's ProBowl.....

************

2 stars: The Play on the Total is 1st Half UNDER 24, 2 stars, not the UNDER 48.
2 stars: 3Q-135 to Outscore 1Q (Greek Still has this 1/25 am -130, so it is available)
1 Star: 2h-125 to Outscore 1h (Greek and CGT both had this 1/25 Morning

******* MONDAY 1/29 update!! ***********

2 Stars: Blount UNDER 7.5 Rushes -115
2 Stars: Blount UNDER 28 Rush yards -115

******** Wed 1/31/ Update! *****

2 Stars: Amendola OVER 4.5 Receptions-115
2 Stars: Amendola OVER 52 Rec Yards -115
2 Stars: Brady OVER 26.5 Completions -115

I KNOW Blount has come down, but GREAT value IMO still at these numbers, I expect Ajayi will get the vast majority of the carries.


*******

ALL larger Prop Bets I made (this may not be widely available, but I am going to disclose the big bets I personally make). IF you see these (at worse prices use your discretion if you want them, in general I would advise is you can get close to the number I played, they are likely still get bets, at vigorish more than 10 cents worse, I would pass.

1st HALF UNDER 24-110

1. 2nd half -125 to Outscore 1st Half
2. 3Q-135 to Outscore 1st Q
3. Final Score will land "Odd" -120
4. NE to win Score the first 4 or more points in the 2nd half-115
5. Philly to punt -130 before they score
6. Blount UNDER 40, UND 38 rush yards (This was a bad opener by a Vegas Book)
7 Blount UNDER 10 rushes
8. Brady -3-120 more Completions vs. Foles
9. Brady -36.5 more yards vs. Foles (But I will likely play Brady UND 298 later)
10. Clement no TD -210
11. Penalties UNDER 12.5-118 (got hit before it was widely available)
12. NE PenUNDER 5.5 -110
13. NO TD drive of OVER 81.5 yards
14. 1Q UND 10-120
15 NO, both teams will not make a 33 yd fg +146
16 Foles OVER 240.5 pass yards (I think this number will go up, and we can scalp go for a middle later).
17 NO TD drive of 82 or more yards, -100
18 NO a team WILL NOT use all 6 Time outs, -110
19 Shortest TD UN 1.5 -135
20 Eagles more points 2h Pk vs 1h, -110
21 Pats more points 2h pk vs 1h, -120
22 NE to punt -105 before they score
23. Blount UNDER 8.5 rushes
24. Blount UNDER 29 yards,
25. Shortest TD UN 1.5-125
26. Amendola OVER 4 receptions -160
27. Amendola OVER 51.5 Pass yards
28. Ajayi OVER 20 pass yards
29. Brady OVER 291 pass yards (likely I play back UNDER on Sunday)
30. Brady OVER 26.5 -110 Completions
31. Lewis UNDER 13.5 Rushes -130 (If you see this it would be a 2 star!)
32. Lewis UNDER 51 Rush yards
33. Eagles to have LONGEST KO Return +4.5-160
34. Points in 4Q-210 vs. 1Q
35 Celtics Sunday Points -155 vs. NE rush Yards
36 Celctice Sunday Points -185 vs. NE rush yards
37 NE MLINE -175 (pretty big)
38 Shortest TD UN 1.5 -115 (rogue line)



NOTE: I WILL be Betting NE MoneyLine eventually, but I expect a much lower Money Line.

NOTE: I WILL be Betting some props on the Eagles also, stay tuned.....


The play is NOT UNDER 48.

The 2* Play is UNDER 24 1st half -110.

Sb's tend to me higher scoring in the 2nd half. There is solid value FIRING 1st half UNDER here, knowing it likely will take a 27 point 1st half to beat us!
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