• logo-banner
Toggle Content
Toggle Content User Info

Welcome Anonymous

Nickname
Password

Membership:
Latest: therealdog
New Today: 0
New Yesterday: 0
Overall: 538

People Online:
Members: 0
Visitors: 10
Total: 10
Who Is Where:
 Visitors:
01: All Forums
02: All Forums
03: All Forums
04: NCAAF Football Schedule
05: All Forums
06: Home
07: Home
08: Home
09: All Forums
10: All Forums

Staff Online:

No staff members are online!

All Forums > WHATS ON YOUR MIND > SPORTS SHIT > eNewsletters Jan 5th - Jan 11th
eNewsletters Jan 5th - Jan 11th
Post new topic   Reply to topic   Printer Friendly Page     Forum Index > SPORTS SHIT
Author Message
unix



Joined: Jun 03, 2006
Posts: 177
Location: the matrix

PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 7:43 pm    Post subject: eNewsletters Jan 5th - Jan 11th

eNewsletters...


Enjoy!


_________________
it is what it is...
Back to top
View user's profile
unix



Joined: Jun 03, 2006
Posts: 177
Location: the matrix

PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 7:44 pm    Post subject: Re: eNewsletters Jan 5th - Jan 11th

BCS Championship: Texas Longhorns vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

The Texas Longhorns and the Alabama Crimson Tide will both be gunning for a victory when they meet at the Rose Bowl in the BCS Championship Game.

Oddsmakers currently have the Crimson Tide listed as 4-point favorites versus the Longhorns, while the game's total is sitting at 45.

Colt McCoy ran for the only TD on the night as Texas defeated Nebraska 13-12 in Week 14. Texas failed to cover the 14-point spread, while the 25 points went UNDER the posted total of 47.

Hunter Lawrence booted two field goals for Texas in that win.

Alabama beat Florida 32-13 in the SEC championship game at the Georgia Dome in Week 14.

Alabama covered as a 5.5-point underdog in that contest, while the final score played OVER the 41-point total.

Team records:
Texas: 13-0 SU, 5-7-1 ATS
Alabama: 13-0 SU, 8-5 ATS

Texas most recently:
When playing in January are 5-2
When playing on grass are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 10-0
When an underdog on the road are 5-5

Alabama most recently:
When playing in January are 2-2
When playing on grass are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 10-0
When favored at home are 10-0

A few trends to consider:
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

_________________
it is what it is...
Back to top
View user's profile
unix



Joined: Jun 03, 2006
Posts: 177
Location: the matrix

PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 7:44 pm    Post subject: Re: eNewsletters Jan 5th - Jan 11th

TEXAS (13 - 0) vs. ALABAMA (13 - 0)

Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


TEXAS vs. ALABAMA
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Texas vs. Alabama

Texas
27-13 ATS as an underdog
4-0 ATS off win by 3pts or less

Alabama
2-8 ATS off DD SU win as a dog
13-4 Under off BB conference games

_________________
it is what it is...
Back to top
View user's profile
unix



Joined: Jun 03, 2006
Posts: 177
Location: the matrix

PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 7:45 pm    Post subject: Re: eNewsletters Jan 5th - Jan 11th

What Bettors Need To Know: BCS Championship


Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Texas Longhorns (+3.5, 45.5)

It

_________________
it is what it is...
Back to top
View user's profile
unix



Joined: Jun 03, 2006
Posts: 177
Location: the matrix

PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2010 7:31 pm    Post subject: Re: eNewsletters Jan 5th - Jan 11th

Las Vegas Sharps Report-NFL WildCard Weekend


We have four games to look at this weekend, so I can go a bit more in depth in the comments. Normally we're looking at anywhere from 14-16 games depending on byes, and the comments have to stay pretty brief.


As always, I'll take the games in rotation order. Here's what the sharps (professional wagerers in Las Vegas and Reno) think about this weekend's NFL action.


NY JETS AT CINCINNATI: There was very strong support for the NY Jets and the Under at the opening numbers. The Bengals opened up at -3½, and the line is all the way down to -1½ or -2 as I write this. This is a HUGE move because it crosses the magic number of three. And, it represents a big misread from oddsmakers with that opening number. They figured people would want to bet the favored Bengals, and charged them that extra half point for the honor. Instead, sharps pounded the Jets at +3½, at +3, and even some more at +2½ even though the field goal was out of the loop. Many sharps think the Jets are going to win this game.


Is that an overreaction to last week's win by the Jets? Sharps tend not to overreact to TV results. That's what squares do. I think the sharps have noted with a keen eye that Cincinnati has struggled to score points offensively for several weeks now. Carson Palmer has been awful (possibly hiding an injury?). If you can't score vs. an average assortment of opponents, you're going to have big trouble against the Jets.


That line of thinking has also led to Under bets by most sharps. We're now seeing 34 or 34½ in most places. That total could go down more if weather is going to be an issue. Note that both of these teams have good defenses, so a playoff game in tough weather will make scoring very difficult.


Clearly the combination of Jets and Under was the sharp combination when lines first went up, and after the initial moves. Sharps have stopped betting at the current numbers. Conceivably some might buy back on game day to shoot middles. I think the sharps are happy with their positions though pending any new developments.


I don't want to suggest that the sharps like the Jets to run roughshod through the playoffs. This is still a team with a shaky offense and a guy who hasn't been a head coach before. They do think the Jets offered underdog value in this particular spot though. Cincinnati just hasn't been playing very well.


PHILADELPHIA AT DALLAS: Another HUGE move here that crossed the magic number of three. Again, oddsmakers did a poor job of anticipating sharp action. Many sharps liked Philadelphia last week on the road at Dallas. Oddsmakers figured they'd knee jerk on the Eagles again figuring there's no way that Donovan McNabb and company would lose twice in a row on the same field. Well, the sharps did a 180 and pounded Dallas at the opener of -1½. They kept pounding at -2, and -2½, and -3, and now the line is all the way up to -4!


What happened?

The sharps I've talked to are now believers in the Cowboys. They don't think the win at New Orleans was a fluke. They don't think last week was a fluke. They see a combination of offense and defense that will serve Dallas well in the playoffs. Frankly, I was a little surprised by the passion given the past history of Wade Phillips and Tony Romo. Guys suddenly LOVE Dallas!


I have to admit that sharps aren't that fond of Donovan McNabb in the playoffs. He has a shaky history at best, particularly when the team is expected to do well. That was true several years ago. Remember that Philly was a favorite in the NFC championship game last year but lost to Arizona.


The Cowboys are on a roll. They're at home. And, they're facing Donovan McNabb. That was enough to put many sharps on Dallas. I do expect some Philly money to hit this weekend. Not ALL sharps think that way. Many play mostly underdogs anyway. Many like quality underdogs getting more than a field goal. And, there is still a belief that it's hard for one good team to win two in a row over another one when both are trying...and that it's hard for one good team to beat another three straight times over the course of a season. There was no reason to bet Philly early given the flow of the line movements. Guys who like the Eagles will see what the public does on Saturday and will take what they can get pointswise.


The total has fallen from 48½ all the way down to 45 even though weather won't be an issue. I think that's a reflection of the quality defense the Cowboys have been playing. Philly struggled against them last week. New Orleans struggled most of the night in the loss that ended the Saints undefeated run. San Diego didn't light up the scoreboard in their road win on this field. If Dallas keeps playing defense like that, then 48½ was definitely way too high.


BALTIMORE AT NEW ENGLAND: As in the other AFC game, we have early money on the underdog and Under here as well. The passion wasn't as intense. Baltimore opened at +4 but has fallen down to +3. The opening total of 44 is down to 43 as I write this.


The support for Baltimore is based, from what I'm hearing, on their competitive play against good teams this year. They had troubles winning straight up on the road, but they were in every game...and easily could have posted a record like 11-5 or 12-4 with a few more breaks. You want a team like THAT getting more than a field goal in a playoff game!


There's also a belief that New England's one of those teams this year that runs up the score on weak opposition, but has trouble shaking quality. This just isn't your normal Patriots team this year. And, the injury to Wes Welker last week makes it even worse. There's also all the talk about Tom Brady being injured. The Patriots didn't cover a single playoff game two seasons ago when he got hurt during their run at history.


You'll note though that the line never moved past the magic number of three. The Jets flew through the three as an underdog play. Dallas demolished it as a favorite. Sharps were hitting Baltimore much harder at +4 and +3½ than they are at the current number.


Should weather be a factor on Sunday, this total could come down even further. Next week's games will be played in three domes and San Diego, so this is the week to pay close attention to the weather!



GREEN BAY AT ARIZONA: There are a lot of believers in Green Bay right now. They closed the season on fire, and appear to have all the pieces in place. We're talking about a great defense, and a quarterback who's come into his own. Sharps have been impressed, and weren't afraid here to ask a road team to win twice in a row at the same road site.


Green Bay opened +2½, which oddsmakers thought might dissuade Packers money because people don't normally like being on the short side of three. Sharps didn't mind at all. They hit Green Bay at +2½, +2 and +1½, expecting Green Bay to win the game.


Has everyone given up on Arizona? The Cards are still seen as a team that got a bit lucky last year rather than a true champion. Maybe it's better to say they got hot at the right time. It's not like they kept catching lucky breaks every game. They got hot and kept pulling shockers. Sharps believe that run is over for now, though they'll have to rethink it next week if Arizona wins here and advances.


The total has come down from 48½ to 47, which I believe is in deference to Green Bay's strong defense. That's all four Unders that have been hit. Sharps like Unders in playoff games historically. This week, they didn't even wait to let squares bet the Overs. They jumped right in at what they considered +EV lines.


In sum, we have all four Unders representing sharp totals at the early lines (though the money has stopped coming in at the current totals), and mostly and underdog slate with NYJ, Baltimore, and Green Bay. Dallas is the only favorite that got support, but they got a lot in early action. We may see some buyback on Philadelphia come Saturday.

_________________
it is what it is...
Back to top
View user's profile
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic   Printer Friendly Page     Forum Index > SPORTS SHIT All times are America/New_York
Page 1 of 1


Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum

Interactive software released under GNU GPL, Code Credits, Privacy Policy